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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›JMU @ ODU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
TA&M @ LSU76
OU @ UGA75
ORE @ USC72
LIB @ CCU0
ARMY @ TEM0
NAVY @ UAB0
NU @ IU0
CLEM @ CAL0
UTAH @ ISU0
USF @ BGSU0
APP @ NCSU0
UCLA @ MD0
JMU @ ODU0
CSU @ UTSA0
WIS @ PSU0
WAKE @ LOU0
SHSU @ TTU0
SC @ ALA0
NIU @ GAST0
MIZ @ MSST0
BALL @ KENT0
MISS @ FLA0
BOIS @ WMU0
IOWA @ MICH0
FAU @ ULM0
CONN @ M-OH0
KSU @ CIN0
SDSU @ TOL0
MOST @ SMU0
VT @ BC0
UNLV @ AKR0
ILL @ OSU0
AF @ NEV0
VAN @ AUB0
MINN @ WASH0
MASS @ SAC0
HOU @ GASO0
USM @ TULN0
COLO @ BAY0
NEB @ MSU0
TCU @ UCF0
DEL @ UVA0
UL @ CLT0
ND @ PUR0
OKST @ WVU0
TEX @ TENN0
USA @ UK0
HAW @ WYO0
UNM @ NMSU0
CMU @ MIA0
KENN @ ARST0
MTSU @ JXST0
ARIZ @ WSU0
TROY @ USU0
TLSA @ ARK0
ORST @ UTEP0
RICE @ FRES0
GT @ STAN0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
JAMES MADISON
OLD DOMINION
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|S.B. BALLARD STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP15|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
68FPI
JMUSBCJAMES MADISON
2-0
27
28
96
8%
11
17
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
96FPI
ODUSBCOLD DOMINION
1-1
12
55
61
9%
0
18
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
JMU33CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
70
PROE
19
TEMPO
11
EXPLOSIVE70p
70
PROE19p
19
TEMPO11p
11
ODU35CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
82
PROE
24
TEMPO
0
EXPLOSIVE82p
82
PROE24p
24
TEMPO0p
0
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
JMURECORD MATCHES
12-1ACTUALvs11.5-1.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+21.5
JAMES MADISON won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 11.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ODURECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.3-2.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.4
OLD DOMINION won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERJAMES MADISONOLD DOMINION2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Alonza Barnett IIIPORTAL · UCF · 96% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB92%Jacob ThomasS · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah CulpCB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler BrownDB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE86%Lacota DippreTE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh PhiferTE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick DeGennaroWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB85%Wayne KnightPORTAL · UCLA · 59% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan FullerRB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJobi MalaryRB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL77%Sahir WestPORTAL · UCLA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAiden GobairaPORTAL · UCLA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONXavier HolmesDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB68%Trent HendrickPORTAL · UCLA · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDrew SpinogattiLB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL58%Pat McMurtrieOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCarter SweazieOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRiley RobellOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DBJayon Harvey · PORTAL ★3 · FINDLAYDamier Minkah · PORTAL ★3 · SHEPHERDJavis Mynatt · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS STATE5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEJeremiah Harrison · PORTAL ★3 · EAST TENNESSEE STATEMicah Matthews · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA TECHCorey Scott · PORTAL ★3 · WEST FLORIDA7 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DLErnest Willor Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSINMason Purham · PORTAL ★3 · EMORY & HENRY COLLEGECory Simon · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBJosiah Perry · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLKaedin Massey · PORTAL ★3 · KANSAS STATEDJ Fox · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSIN-RIVER FALLSPARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · JAMES MADISON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
20.58 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
22.619 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
18.911 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB545459142 OF 4 GRADED
RB5656667173 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE4646531927CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL434338018CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL717139531711 OF 17 GRADED
LB6767322584 OF 8 GRADED
DB61614238229 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE27th27
BLUE-CHIP RATIO5%28
RECRUITING CLASS#80 · 0/21 BC41
CLASS RANK TREND+28 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 37 IN / 30 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ODURICKY RAHNE7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5050
PACE
3030
PASS RATE
5555
EXPLOSIVENESS
9494
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1414
HAVOC
6262
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
JMUBILLY NAPIERFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3939
PACE
1818
PASS RATE
4444
EXPLOSIVENESS
6262
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4141
HAVOC
4747
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESJMU OFFENSEODU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBJAMES MADISON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
66OF 138
TAL
59
PERF
54
RET
1
NATIONAL
28OF 136
RET
42
FULL DEFENSEOLD DOMINION DEFENSE
JMU QUARTERBACKSn=499% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JC EVANSQBRET
522ND YR2046★3—
ARRINGTON MAIDENQBPORTAL · MEMPHIS
512ND YR—61★3—
CAMDEN COLEMANQBRET
493RD YR1545★3—
TANNER VIBABULQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—42★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ODU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS16% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6490%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
7742%0%
SECONDARYDB
5795%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLJAMES MADISON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
102OF 138
TAL
38
PERF
43
RET
0
DL
21OF 138
DL RET
90
LB
4OF 138
LB RET
42
FRONT-7OLD DOMINION DEFENSE
JMU OFFENSIVE LINEn=18100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZACH GREENBERGOLRET
554TH YR—45★3+20 2025
EVAN BUSHONGOLRET
522ND YR—26★3—
GRIFFIN HARTOLRET
513RD YR——UNR—
FRANKIE TINILAUOLPORTAL · EAST TENNESSEE STATE
493RD YR—28★3—
JAKOBE CAMPBELLOLRET
492ND YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ODU FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS29% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KOA NAOTALALBRET
634TH YR84—UNR-5
JACKSON FORRESTLBRET
582ND YR6045★3+20
MARIO THOMPSONLBRET
553RD YR9524★3+22
AHMAAD FOSTERDLRET
542ND YR4129★3—
DEANDRE LYNCHDLRET
523RD YR75—UNR-27
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBJAMES MADISON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
50OF 138
TAL
66
PERF
56
RET
71
DL
21OF 138
DL RET
90
LB
4OF 138
LB RET
42
FRONT-7OLD DOMINION DEFENSE
JMU RUNNING BACKSn=729% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JACKSON MCCARTERRBRET
511ST YR—52★3—
GEORGE PETTAWAYRBRET
514TH YR8885★3+14
SETH CROMWELLRBPORTAL · NORTHERN ARIZONA
494TH YR1117★3—
NICK HERMANRBPORTAL · DRAKE
432ND YR528★3—
TRASHON DYERBRET
412ND YR—59★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ODU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS32% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556490%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.457742%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEJAMES MADISON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
88OF 138
TAL
53
PERF
46
RET
19
DB
41OF 138
DB RET
95
SECONDARYOLD DOMINION DEFENSE
JMU PASS CATCHERSn=2781% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RYDER POSTTERET
522ND YR——UNR—
BRAEDEN WISLOSKIWRRET
524TH YR6763★3+18
ZA'RON COLLINSWRRET
493RD YR409★3-25
MICHAEL SCOTTWRRET
452ND YR—54★3-10 2025
ARRION CONCEPCIONWRRET
371ST YR—28★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ODU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM5% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZION FRINKCBRET
673RD YR7864★3-22
LUCAS STRUCKSRET
653RD YR53—UNR+58
MARIO EASTERLYSRET
584TH YR9432★3+39
JORIAN HAYNESCBRET
543RD YR47—UNR—
JUSTIN WATTSCBRET
482ND YR41—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
JMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ODU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
46.1
52.5
— OFFENSE
53.1
52.4
— DEFENSE
39.0
52.6
SP+ OVERALL
4.0
-6.9
FPI
0.1
-7.0
ELO
1776
1289
TALENT
588
544
PRODUCTION
50
33
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−5
−23
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.05
0.02
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
JMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ODU
OFF EFFICIENCY
74
75
DEF EFFICIENCY
100
81
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
73
66
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
3
97
FINISHING DRIVES
69
61
FIELD POSITION
6
30
TURNOVER MARGIN
56
52
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
JMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ODU
PASS RATE
42.2%
37.4%
PACE
33.0s
36.4s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
63.2%
73.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
63.6%
57.1%
PLAYS / GAME
54.5
49.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
5.5%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = JMU, ORANGE = ODU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE