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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›MTSU @ JXST›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
SDSU @ TOL79
ORE @ USC76
WAKE @ LOU71
OU @ UGA71
JMU @ ODU71
MINN @ WASH69
MIZ @ MSST69
KSU @ CIN69
TA&M @ LSU69
NAVY @ UAB68
TEX @ TENN68
NU @ IU67
CLEM @ CAL66
HAW @ WYO66
TLSA @ ARK66
IOWA @ MICH65
MISS @ FLA64
OKST @ WVU64
ILL @ OSU64
ARIZ @ WSU64
WIS @ PSU63
UTAH @ ISU62
CMU @ MIA62
APP @ NCSU61
NEB @ MSU61
UCLA @ MD61
VAN @ AUB61
MOST @ SMU60
SC @ ALA60
COLO @ BAY60
GT @ STAN60
TCU @ UCF59
SHSU @ TTU57
ND @ PUR57
USA @ UK57
BOIS @ WMU55
USF @ BGSU55
AF @ NEV55
TROY @ USU55
HOU @ GASO54
DEL @ UVA52
VT @ BC52
UNLV @ AKR52
RICE @ FRES52
CONN @ M-OH48
LIB @ CCU47
ORST @ UTEP47
CSU @ UTSA46
ARMY @ TEM44
UNM @ NMSU40
NIU @ GAST39
KENN @ ARST37
BALL @ KENT34
FAU @ ULM32
MTSU @ JXST32
UL @ CLT30
USM @ TULN30
MASS @ SAC0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
JACKSONVILLE STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 19:00 ET|AMFIRST STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP12|O/U51.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
119FPI
MTSUCUSAMIDDLE TENNESSEE
2-1
21
14
4
33%
23
20
21.5
+260
+8.5
HOME
—AP
109FPI
JXSTCUSAJACKSONVILLE STATE
2-2
33
19
10
50%
13
3
30.0
-325
-8.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL51.5
SPREADJXST -8.5
IMPLIED — MTSU21.5
IMPLIED — JXST30.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
46FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
33 / 58
BY ENVIRONMENT
33 / 57
DISAGREEMENT0 SLOTSBoth rankings put this game in the same place on the week's board. The market board is 58 games because -1 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
MTSU PACE29.7s
23
JXST PACE31.3s
13
SHARED PACE30.5s
18
PLAY VOLUME118
18
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MTSU52CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
34
PROE
98
TEMPO
23
EXPLOSIVE34p
34
PROE98p
98
TEMPO23p
23
JXST24CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
54
PROE
5
TEMPO
13
EXPLOSIVE54p
54
PROE5p
5
TEMPO13p
13
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MTSURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.8-8.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-8.5
MIDDLE TENNESSEE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
JXSTRECORD MATCHES
8-5ACTUALvs7.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+2.8
JACKSONVILLE STATE won 8 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMIDDLE TENNESSEEJACKSONVILLE STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB86%Jekail MiddlebrookPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 67% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRickey Hunt Jr.PORTAL · FAIRMONT STATE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL84%Mateo GuevaraOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoseph HabinowskiOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob OttsOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB71%Nicholas VattiatoQB · 71% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL71%Shakai WoodsPORTAL · ARKANSAS STATE · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDamonte SmithNT · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB70%Parker HughesDRAFTED · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnthony BynumPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon BucknerLB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE63%Hunter TiptonPORTAL · MEMPHIS · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNahzae CoxPORTAL · KANSAS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMyles ButlerWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB58%Abdul MuhammadCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDe'Arre McDonaldCB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJuwon GastonS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBAntonio Martin Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · KANSAS STATERobert Lathon Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLBrennan Smith · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEReese Tripp · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTAChris Moreno · PORTAL ★3 · MONMOUTH3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBRocco Williams · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLJustin Bodford · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURIJonas Jimerson · SIGNEE ★3Jayden Arenas-Michel · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBAshton Taylor · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSON STATEShane Rochelle · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEMarkus Allen · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEHogan Wasson · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL MISSOURIBryson Maddox · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJames Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · USCRicky Lee III · PORTAL ★3 · SACRAMENTO STATEDyson McCutcheon · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MIDDLE TENNESSEE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
31.927 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
27.926 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
34.636 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB56565210061 OF 6 GRADED
RB5151461084 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE4141253122CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL313132015CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL54543177135 OF 13 GRADED
LB38385961167 OF 16 GRADED
DB303037422210 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE21st21
BLUE-CHIP RATIO7%33
RECRUITING CLASS#119 · 0/14 BC11
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 19 IN / 18 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
JXSTCHARLES KELLY2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
33
PACE
7676
PASS RATE
33
EXPLOSIVENESS
4646
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5858
HAVOC
7272
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MTSUDEREK MASON3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9696
PACE
3737
PASS RATE
9898
EXPLOSIVENESS
4545
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6666
HAVOC
2323
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMTSU OFFENSEJXST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMIDDLE TENNESSEE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
60OF 138
TAL
52
PERF
56
RET
100
NATIONAL
108OF 136
RET
18
FULL DEFENSEJACKSONVILLE STATE DEFENSE
MTSU QUARTERBACKSn=60% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ROMAN GAGLIANOQBRET
542ND YR5552★3-5
PETER COSTELLIQBTRUE FR
454TH YR—90★3—
STANLEY ANDERSON-LOFTONQBRET
411ST YR—41★3—
ROCCO WILLIAMSQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—53★3—
MASON MALLORYQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JXST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 60 PLAYERS38% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5066%7%
LINEBACKERSLB
3989%6%
SECONDARYDB
5451%7%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMIDDLE TENNESSEE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
130OF 138
TAL
32
PERF
31
RET
0
DL
70OF 138
DL RET
66
LB
102OF 138
LB RET
89
FRONT-7JACKSONVILLE STATE DEFENSE
MTSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=15100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DIEGO BLATTLEROLRET
504TH YR——UNR—
BRENNAN SMITHOLPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
474TH YR—45★3+28 2025
OTTO JANSE VAN RENSBURGOLRET
452ND YR—37★3+13 2025
ALEX GALEOLRET
432ND YR—28★3-22 2025
REESE TRIPPOLPORTAL · MINNESOTA
383RD YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JXST FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS25% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAWAUN CAMPBELLDLRET
663RD YR88—UNR-15
MAC SANDERSLBRET
642ND YR7945★3+5
WALKER O'STEENLBRET
544TH YR76—UNR-37
CHRISTOPHER JOHNSONDLRET
501ST YR3960★3—
ANDREW RUMPHDLPORTAL · UCF
503RD YR2572★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMIDDLE TENNESSEE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
70OF 138
TAL
46
PERF
51
RET
10
DL
70OF 138
DL RET
66
LB
102OF 138
LB RET
89
FRONT-7JACKSONVILLE STATE DEFENSE
MTSU RUNNING BACKSn=890% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTONIO MARTINRBTRUE FR
534TH YR3345★3+29
AUSTIN CLEMONSRBRET
502ND YR—42★3—
DJ TAYLORRBRET
502ND YR3964★3+33
BROOKLEN DAVISRBRET
351ST YR—50★3—
TERRENCE BROWNRBTRUE FR
404TH YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JXST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS23% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555066%7%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453989%6%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMIDDLE TENNESSEE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
110OF 138
TAL
25
PERF
41
RET
31
DB
54OF 138
DB RET
51
SECONDARYJACKSONVILLE STATE DEFENSE
MTSU PASS CATCHERSn=2269% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARKUS ALLENWRPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
594TH YR859★3+5
CAM'RON LACYWRRET
513RD YR8435★3+13
EVAN POTICHERTERET
483RD YR——UNR-24 2025
TAYVION GALLOWAYTERET
442ND YR5245★3-49
AJ JONESWRRET
434TH YR789★3-51
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JXST SECONDARYn=27 · 1 ROOM49% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARC WOODSSRET
582ND YR5641★3+12
TRE'QUON FEGANSCBRET
534TH YR8545★3+13
JQ BROOKSCBRET
521ST YR3762★3—
JAHEIM JENKINSCBRET
514TH YR699★3-18
CALEB NIXSRET
514TH YR851★2+49
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MTSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
JXST
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
57.3
53.9
— OFFENSE
71.7
56.8
— DEFENSE
42.9
50.9
SP+ OVERALL
-21.3
-7.0
FPI
-13.2
-8.8
ELO
1298
1427
TALENT
572
603
PRODUCTION
2
31
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+12
+14
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.07
0.09
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MTSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
JXST
OFF EFFICIENCY
49
66
DEF EFFICIENCY
23
43
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
42
58
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
36
28
FINISHING DRIVES
15
60
FIELD POSITION
69
59
TURNOVER MARGIN
59
70
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MTSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
JXST
PASS RATE
56.6%
46.5%
PACE
29.7s
31.3s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
52.0%
58.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
75.4%
59.3%
PLAYS / GAME
60.7
57.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
2.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MTSU, ORANGE = JXST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE