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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 5›WKU @ NMSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
WKU @ NMSU0
UNT @ TLSA0
LIB @ DEL0
PITT @ VT0
PSU @ NU0
BAY @ ASU0
MEM @ CLT0
ODU @ GAST0
MIA @ CLEM0
MD @ NEB0
AUB @ TENN0
ARMY @ LT0
EMU @ MASS0
BYU @ TCU0
BC @ SMU0
FLA @ MIZ0
WVU @ ISU0
AKR @ CMU0
STAN @ WAKE0
UVA @ FSU0
LOU @ NCSU0
TOL @ BALL0
ARK @ TA&M0
UK @ SC0
BGSU @ M-OH0
VAN @ UGA0
CIN @ ARIZ0
ULM @ USA0
TEM @ USF0
MICH @ MINN0
WMU @ BUF0
TTU @ COLO0
UTEP @ UNM0
MRSH @ JMU0
OHIO @ KENT0
UTSA @ RICE0
ND @ UNC0
PUR @ ILL0
UCF @ HOU0
ALA @ MSST0
WASH @ USC0
OSU @ IOWA0
ARST @ UL0
GASO @ CCU0
MTSU @ KU0
MSU @ WIS0
NAVY @ AF0
SYR @ CONN0
CAL @ UNLV0
WYO @ NDSU0
ORST @ CSU0
USU @ BOIS0
IU @ RUTG0
FRES @ WSU0
TXST @ SDSU0
SJSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
NEW MEXICO STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
THU 20:00 ET|AGGIE MEMORIAL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP35|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
120FPI
WKUCUSAWESTERN KENTUCKY
0-2
37
27
41
84%
91
9
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
119FPI
NMSUCUSANEW MEXICO STATE
1-2
2
8
41
24%
38
8
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
WKU67CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
20
PROE
89
TEMPO
91
EXPLOSIVE20p
20
PROE89p
89
TEMPO91p
91
NMSU70CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
84
PROE
88
TEMPO
38
EXPLOSIVE84p
84
PROE88p
88
TEMPO38p
38
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
WKURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.7-4.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.3
WESTERN KENTUCKY won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NMSURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.3-7.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.0
NEW MEXICO STATE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWESTERN KENTUCKYNEW MEXICO STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB97%Marvis ParrishPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGeorge Hart IIIRB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLa'Vell WrightPORTAL · PITTSBURGH · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL84%Quincy JenkinsOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarshall JacksonOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLaurence Seymore IIIOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB70%Nazir WardPORTAL · SYRACUSE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKent RobinsonDB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDylan FlowersPORTAL · DUKE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE59%Matthew HenryWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNoah MeyersPORTAL · SYRACUSE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJairus MackWR · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB57%Anthony BrackenridgeLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMiller MaloneLB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDominic OliverLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB55%Maverick McIvorQB · 55% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL49%Harper HollomanPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKoron HaywardPORTAL · TCU · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden HardyDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBLe'Kamren Meadows · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLRoq Montgomery · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMARhett Larson · PORTAL ★3 · SAM HOUSTONZayden Walters · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DBD'Cambren Verrett · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&M-KINGSVILLEJaylen Pollard · SIGNEE ★3Taron Essex · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TECC Ezirim · PORTAL ★3 · TOLEDOJyzaiah Rockwell · PORTAL ★3 · PRAIRIE VIEW A&MDevin Hamilton · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBMakhi Brazier · SIGNEE ★3Westen Ard · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBBrock Glenn · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATECam O'Hara · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLCeeJay Embry · SIGNEE ★3Bryce Fulda · SIGNEE ★3Henry Smith · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WESTERN KENTUCKY
CARRIED COMPOSITE
32.328 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
19.217 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
40.050 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB52522510041 OF 4 GRADED
RB3333741063 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE4545513121CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL393921017CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL292932782311 OF 23 GRADED
LB28282042103 OF 10 GRADED
DB49492653208 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE37th37
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%18
RECRUITING CLASS#81 · 0/24 BC40
CLASS RANK TREND+30 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 19 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NMSUTONY SANCHEZ3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4646
PACE
7474
PASS RATE
7070
EXPLOSIVENESS
3333
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
77
HAVOC
77
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WKUTYSON HELTON8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9696
PACE
5656
PASS RATE
9292
EXPLOSIVENESS
8181
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6868
HAVOC
1919
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWKU OFFENSENMSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWESTERN KENTUCKY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
80OF 138
TAL
25
PERF
52
RET
100
NATIONAL
80OF 136
RET
16
FULL DEFENSENEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE
WKU QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RODNEY TISDALE JR.QBRET
492ND YR6525★3+12
BROCK GLENNQBPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
463RD YR5945★3-56
CALEB MCMICKLEQBRET
373RD YR—17★3—
CAM O'HARAQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NMSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 48 PLAYERS27% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3976%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
3083%0%
SECONDARYDB
4468%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWESTERN KENTUCKY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
111OF 138
TAL
21
PERF
39
RET
0
DL
110OF 138
DL RET
76
LB
128OF 138
LB RET
83
FRONT-7NEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE
WKU OFFENSIVE LINEn=17100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ISIAH STOUDEMIREOLRET
521ST YR—21★3—
ROQ MONTGOMERYOLPORTAL · ALABAMA
503RD YR—64★3—
TAI RAYOLPORTAL · PITTSBURGH
503RD YR—17★3—
RHETT LARSONOLPORTAL · SAM HOUSTON
494TH YR—45★3+3 2025
TYREEK MAJOROLPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA
492ND YR—28★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NMSU FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS21% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRAD VISLISELDERET
663RD YR67—UNR+9
TORY GETHERSLBRET
644TH YR8328★3+8
JASON GWANDLRET
523RD YR33—UNR—
JEREMIAH SANDIFORDDLPORTAL · TENNESSEE TECH
524TH YR2317★3—
CHANCE BARRONLBRET
523RD YR27—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWESTERN KENTUCKY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
130OF 138
TAL
74
PERF
33
RET
10
DL
110OF 138
DL RET
76
LB
128OF 138
LB RET
83
FRONT-7NEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE
WKU RUNNING BACKSn=690% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AJAY ALLENRBTRUE FR
564TH YR8981★4+15
LE'KAMREN MEADOWSRBTRUE FR
521ST YR20—★3—
JADEN MCGILLRBRET
504TH YR3328★3+14
KALIB HICKSRBPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
443RD YR—28★3-54 2025
ADRION BOYDRBRET
303RD YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NMSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS21% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553976%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453083%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWESTERN KENTUCKY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
91OF 138
TAL
51
PERF
45
RET
31
DB
108OF 138
DB RET
68
SECONDARYNEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE
WKU PASS CATCHERSn=2169% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZION TAYLORWRTRUE FR
503RD YR—64★3+15 2025
LOFTON HOWARDTERET
483RD YR32—UNR—
COLESON ARENDSTETRUE FR
463RD YR——UNR—
CC EZIRIMTEPORTAL · TOLEDO
464TH YR4345★3+13
CAMERON FLOWERSWRRET
452ND YR5850★3-12
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NMSU SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM32% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DE'MARCUS PETERSCBPORTAL · TEXAS A&M-KINGSVILLE
504TH YR379★3—
JAVON GILLESPIECBPORTAL · EAST TEXAS A&M
493RD YR2545★3—
RJ CHAPMANSPORTAL · MERRIMACK
494TH YR24—UNR—
LORENZO SMITHSRET
474TH YR619★3-4
DJ CLOYDSRET
454TH YR3437★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WKU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NMSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
39.3
43.2
— OFFENSE
41.0
47.3
— DEFENSE
37.6
39.1
SP+ OVERALL
-13.3
-15.0
FPI
-13.9
-13.0
ELO
1250
1261
TALENT
612
460
PRODUCTION
32
9
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+1
+7
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.03
0.05
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WKU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NMSU
OFF EFFICIENCY
61
9
DEF EFFICIENCY
88
47
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
31
58
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
17
74
FINISHING DRIVES
77
14
FIELD POSITION
69
63
TURNOVER MARGIN
31
42
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WKU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NMSU
PASS RATE
52.0%
54.2%
PACE
24.0s
28.4s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
57.6%
50.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
67.2%
64.9%
PLAYS / GAME
75.0
63.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
12.7%
3.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WKU, ORANGE = NMSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE