SAT 17:00 ET|DOYT L. PERRY STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP17|O/U51.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
13
4-8
39
30
4
100%
51
27
28.8
-218
-6.0
HOME
23
4-8
23
5
38
8%
14
17
22.8
+180
+6.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALLIB13—BGSU23
CLOSED LIB -6.0TOTAL 51.5BGSU COVERED · 36 POINTS · UNDER
LIB
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
BGSU
LIB
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
BGSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=47
MARKET
TOTAL51.5
SPREADLIB -6.0
IMPLIED — LIB28.8
IMPLIED — BGSU22.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
41FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT15 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 15 positions on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
LIBRECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.8-6.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.9
LIBERTY won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BGSURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.8-7.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.8
BOWLING GREEN won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERLIBERTYBOWLING GREEN2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB92%Kaidon SalterPORTAL · COLORADO · 90% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB62%Jerome Jolly Jr.LB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTeylor JacksonLB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJahmar BrownLB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB55%Quinton CooleyRB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBilly LucasRB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL51%TJ Bush Jr.PORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris BotiPORTAL · ARKANSAS STATE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEliyt NairnePORTAL · TULANE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL49%Jordan WhitePORTAL · VANDERBILT · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONXavior GrayPORTAL · NORTHWESTERN · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohn Paul FloresOL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE32%Bentley HanshawTE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTreon SibleyWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB31%Quinton ReeseS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlex OliverCB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCharles Yates Jr.CB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBMichael Merdinger · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINAEthan Vasko · PORTAL ★3 · COASTAL CAROLINAEthan Houck · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBDerrell Farrar · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATEPARTIAL
RBEvan Dickens · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA TECHREFILLED
DLAaron Hester · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEJoe Strickland · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUESamuel Cohen · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLChristian Williams · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDAJoep Engbers · PORTAL ★2 · ILLINOISGabe Smith · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TECasey Cain · PORTAL ★3 · UNLVJamari Person · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADO STATENasir Newkirk · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBJayden Whaley · PORTAL ★3 · HAMPTONJiquavious Marshall · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYMyke Gunn · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · LIBERTY
CARRIED COMPOSITE
54.882 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
51.872 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
56.684 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB363631054 OF 5 GRADED
RB4747557099 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE444440791917 OF 19 GRADED
OL535324621913 OF 19 GRADED
DL262643701715 OF 17 GRADED
LB2626234097 OF 9 GRADED
DB434346971916 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE39th39
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%23
RECRUITING CLASS#86 · 0/14 BC36
CLASS RANK TREND+25 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 20 IN / 28 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BGSUEDDIE GEORGEFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
55
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1717
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
LIBJAMEY CHADWELL3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
77
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6969
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESLIB OFFENSEBGSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBLIBERTY OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEBOWLING GREEN DEFENSE LIB QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BGSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS59% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLLIBERTY OFFENSEFRONT-7BOWLING GREEN DEFENSE LIB OFFENSIVE LINEn=1938% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BGSU FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS49% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBLIBERTY OFFENSEFRONT-7BOWLING GREEN DEFENSE LIB RUNNING BACKSn=930% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BGSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS52% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554675%6%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TELIBERTY OFFENSESECONDARYBOWLING GREEN DEFENSE LIB PASS CATCHERSn=1921% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BGSU SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM68% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
LIB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BGSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+14
+4
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
LIB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BGSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
LIB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BGSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS68.8%
69.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS65.3%
59.5%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.6%
0.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = LIB, ORANGE = BGSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE