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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 5›GASO @ CCU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
WKU @ NMSU0
UNT @ TLSA0
LIB @ DEL0
PITT @ VT0
PSU @ NU0
BAY @ ASU0
MEM @ CLT0
ODU @ GAST0
MIA @ CLEM0
MD @ NEB0
AUB @ TENN0
ARMY @ LT0
EMU @ MASS0
BYU @ TCU0
BC @ SMU0
FLA @ MIZ0
WVU @ ISU0
AKR @ CMU0
STAN @ WAKE0
UVA @ FSU0
LOU @ NCSU0
TOL @ BALL0
ARK @ TA&M0
UK @ SC0
BGSU @ M-OH0
VAN @ UGA0
CIN @ ARIZ0
ULM @ USA0
TEM @ USF0
MICH @ MINN0
WMU @ BUF0
TTU @ COLO0
UTEP @ UNM0
MRSH @ JMU0
OHIO @ KENT0
UTSA @ RICE0
ND @ UNC0
PUR @ ILL0
UCF @ HOU0
ALA @ MSST0
WASH @ USC0
OSU @ IOWA0
ARST @ UL0
GASO @ CCU0
MTSU @ KU0
MSU @ WIS0
NAVY @ AF0
SYR @ CONN0
CAL @ UNLV0
WYO @ NDSU0
ORST @ CSU0
USU @ BOIS0
IU @ RUTG0
FRES @ WSU0
TXST @ SDSU0
SJSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
COASTAL CAROLINA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|BROOKS STADIUM (SC)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP20|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
100FPI
GASOSBCGEORGIA SOUTHERN
1-1
44
45
2
6%
84
27
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
111FPI
CCUSBCCOASTAL CAROLINA
1-1
24
32
23
15%
46
26
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
GASO66CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
50
PROE
65
TEMPO
84
EXPLOSIVE50p
50
PROE65p
65
TEMPO84p
84
CCU45CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
69
PROE
19
TEMPO
46
EXPLOSIVE69p
69
PROE19p
19
TEMPO46p
46
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
GASORECORD OVERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs4.6-7.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.3
GEORGIA SOUTHERN won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CCURECORD OVERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs3.4-8.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.1
COASTAL CAROLINA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERGEORGIA SOUTHERNCOASTAL CAROLINA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB92%JC French IVPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 92% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL90%Pichon WimbleyOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb CookOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohnnie Brown IIIOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE80%Ahmon GreenTE · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCamden BrownWR · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcus Sanders Jr.WR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB55%Dorrian SmithDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAyden JacksonPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin MeyersDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL55%Davion RhodesPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob FergusonDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevan LowePORTAL · MEMPHIS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB51%OJ ArnoldRB · 51% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB26%Brendan HarringtonLB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBHarrison Faulkner Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLMo Clipper Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · CHARLOTTEJosh Raymond · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEJayvon Perry · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
WR/TEAlex Taylor · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINAKam Mikell · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADONoble Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBAaron Sears · PORTAL ★3 · STEPHEN F. AUSTINNoah Mangham · PORTAL ★3 · ABILENE CHRISTIANChace Calicut · SIGNEE ★44 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLAlec Upshaw · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBTy Cummings · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBRashon Myles Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · ABILENE CHRISTIANREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · GEORGIA SOUTHERN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
39.748 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
14.610 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
54.083 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4646751862 OF 6 GRADED
RB6767618195 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE505040624CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL383841019CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL23234150106 OF 10 GRADED
LB323234442516 OF 25 GRADED
DB494947622113 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE44th44
BLUE-CHIP RATIO12%53
RECRUITING CLASS#89 · 1/21 BC34
CLASS RANK TREND+2 · 3 CYCLES54
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 17 IN / 18 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CCURYAN BEARDFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8888
PACE
2626
PASS RATE
8989
EXPLOSIVENESS
100100
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
77
HAVOC
2929
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
GASOCLAY HELTON5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9494
PACE
8787
PASS RATE
9393
EXPLOSIVENESS
3737
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1818
HAVOC
5555
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESGASO OFFENSECCU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBGEORGIA SOUTHERN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
94OF 138
TAL
75
PERF
46
RET
18
NATIONAL
106OF 136
RET
13
FULL DEFENSECOASTAL CAROLINA DEFENSE
GASO QUARTERBACKSn=682% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
WESTON BRYANQBRET
522ND YR1784★4—
MAX JOHNSONQBPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
504TH YR7490★3-20
TURNER HELTONQBRET
494TH YR—9★3+28 2025
CHARLIE JOHNSTONQBRET
352ND YR—62★3—
HARRISON FAULKNER JR.QBTRUE FR
351ST YR—48★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CCU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS77% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4418%13%
LINEBACKERSLB
497%0%
SECONDARYDB
5331%4%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLGEORGIA SOUTHERN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
114OF 138
TAL
41
PERF
38
RET
0
DL
94OF 138
DL RET
18
LB
64OF 138
LB RET
7
FRONT-7COASTAL CAROLINA DEFENSE
GASO OFFENSIVE LINEn=19100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
COLIN ALEXANDEROLRET
523RD YR—11★2—
JAYLEN SLAUGHTEROLRET
493RD YR——UNR—
CAELAN WILLIAMSOLRET
494TH YR—14★2—
ETHAN WILLIAMSOLRET
484TH YR—28★3—
MATTHEW WILLIAMSOLRET
474TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CCU FRONT-7n=26 · 2 ROOMS86% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MITCHELL TONEYDLPORTAL · MISSOURI STATE
733RD YR5845★3+47
AHMAD POOLEDLPORTAL · MISSOURI STATE
684TH YR68—UNR-21
DJ WESOLAKDLPORTAL · MISSOURI STATE
633RD YR7428★3+6
IBRAHIM DIAWARADERET
544TH YR6728★3+40
XZAVIER BOOKERDLPORTAL · ALABAMA A&M
523RD YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBGEORGIA SOUTHERN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
14OF 138
TAL
61
PERF
67
RET
81
DL
94OF 138
DL RET
18
LB
64OF 138
LB RET
7
FRONT-7COASTAL CAROLINA DEFENSE
GASO RUNNING BACKSn=919% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAMARIAN SAMUELRBRET
524TH YR2635★3+36
TERRANCE GIBBSRBRET
504TH YR4086★4-57
TAEO TODDRBRET
483RD YR4050★3-20
DAVID MBADINGARBRET
474TH YR74—UNR-37
TY CUMMINGSRBTRUE FR
471ST YR—73★3—
SHOW ALL 9
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CCU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 26 PLAYERS87% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554418%13%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.45497%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEGEORGIA SOUTHERN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
70OF 138
TAL
40
PERF
50
RET
6
DB
60OF 138
DB RET
31
SECONDARYCOASTAL CAROLINA DEFENSE
GASO PASS CATCHERSn=2494% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOSH DALLASWRRET
664TH YR7836★3+27
RIVER HELMSTERET
644TH YR8045★3+35
JP MIKHAELTERET
484TH YR3625★3—
ANTAVIOUS MURPHYWRRET
483RD YR—41★3—
ASHTON HOLLINSWRPORTAL · ILLINOIS
454TH YR509★3+30
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CCU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM69% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JA'MARION WAYNECBRET
804TH YR7689★4-21
TRAVIS ROMANCBTRUE FR
503RD YR11—UNR—
JALEN LEESTRUE FR
494TH YR2064★3—
BRANDON ROSESRET
492ND YR1970★3—
JESSE POWELL IIDBPORTAL · ELON
494TH YR1128★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
GASO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CCU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
65.1
41.7
— OFFENSE
69.8
46.3
— DEFENSE
60.4
37.1
SP+ OVERALL
-6.6
-9.5
FPI
-7.8
-9.7
ELO
1359
1270
TALENT
634
574
PRODUCTION
25
15
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−13
+13
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.12
0.12
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
GASO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CCU
OFF EFFICIENCY
67
8
DEF EFFICIENCY
3
22
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
48
60
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
52
41
FINISHING DRIVES
74
43
FIELD POSITION
74
34
TURNOVER MARGIN
54
36
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
GASO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CCU
PASS RATE
68.1%
53.8%
PACE
25.0s
27.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
38.0%
57.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
78.8%
76.7%
PLAYS / GAME
72.0
65.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
4.2%
3.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = GASO, ORANGE = CCU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE