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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 6›NMSU @ FIU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
USM @ TROY0
JXST @ KENN0
NMSU @ FIU0
MOST @ WKU0
SHSU @ LIB0
USA @ ARST0
USF @ UTSA0
FSU @ LOU0
IOWA @ WASH0
WYO @ SJSU0
WSU @ USU0
ISU @ BYU0
HAW @ ASU0
MINN @ PUR0
JMU @ GASO0
ILL @ MSU0
MISS @ VAN0
SYR @ UVA0
CLT @ UNT0
MD @ OSU0
HOU @ KSU0
USC @ PSU0
ODU @ APP0
TENN @ ARK0
UCF @ OKST0
LSU @ UK0
CMU @ OHIO0
CONN @ TEM0
WAKE @ NCSU0
RICE @ ECU0
ARIZ @ WVU0
UNC @ PITT0
CCU @ MRSH0
BALL @ NU0
KENT @ WMU0
UCLA @ ORE0
SAC @ BGSU0
KU @ UTAH0
M-OH @ MASS0
TA&M @ MIZ0
IU @ NEB0
UL @ LT0
NEV @ UTEP0
SC @ FLA0
VT @ CAL0
DUKE @ GT0
UAB @ MEM0
UGA @ ALA0
BUF @ TOL0
TULN @ ARMY0
STAN @ ND0
TEX @ OU0
EMU @ AKR0
TLSA @ NAVY0
SDSU @ ORST0
NDSU @ UNLV0
AF @ NIU0
BOIS @ FRES0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NEW MEXICO STATE
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
WED 19:30 ET|PITBULL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP33|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
122FPI
NMSUCUSANEW MEXICO STATE
1-2
2
8
41
24%
37
9
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
114FPI
FIUCUSAFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
1-2
35
13
27
32%
94
10
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
NMSU72CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
91
PROE
88
TEMPO
37
EXPLOSIVE91p
91
PROE88p
88
TEMPO37p
37
FIU58CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
45
PROE
33
TEMPO
94
EXPLOSIVE45p
45
PROE33p
33
TEMPO94p
94
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
NMSURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.3-7.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.0
NEW MEXICO STATE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
FIURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.4-5.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.5
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNEW MEXICO STATEFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL83%Malik WilliamsOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBJ ToloOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONArmando NievesOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB79%Logan FifeQB · 78% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE71%Gavin HarrisPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDonovan FaupelPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPJ Johnson IIIWR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL57%Jamall Thompson Jr.DE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTa'Avili TuitamaPORTAL · UTAH STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEzra ChristensenDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB47%Naeten MitchellPORTAL · COLORADO · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZedekiah Rodriguez-BrownCB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONStilton McKelveyPORTAL · BAYLOR · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB46%Kadarius CallowayRB · 43% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB28%Quincy DavisPORTAL · KANSAS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler MartinezPORTAL · COLORADO · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLArmond Owens · PORTAL ★3 · GRAMBLINGTyler Keinath · PORTAL ★3 · BOISE STATEJames Williams · PORTAL ★3 · UTEP2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
WR/TECarson Su'esu'e · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATELyndon Ravare · PORTAL ★3 · KENNESAW STATEDevin Ellison · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON STATE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJordan-Lebron Downey · PORTAL ★3 · LIVINGSTONEVic Shaw · PORTAL ★3 · UTSAKaian Roberts-Day · PORTAL ★3 · UTSA2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJavon Gillespie · PORTAL ★3 · EAST TEXAS A&MTayden Barnes · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATIAmaurey Brooks · PORTAL ★3 · FORDHAM2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJames Jones · PORTAL ★3 · DELAWARE STATETJ Washington Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · IOWAXavier Rucker · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBJaylyn Manning · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NEW MEXICO STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
43.964 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
29.931 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
52.479 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB292927452 OF 5 GRADED
RB3838483785 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE444453522210 OF 22 GRADED
OL35353025177 OF 17 GRADED
DL393928761912 OF 19 GRADED
LB3030308396 OF 9 GRADED
DB444418682013 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE2nd2
BLUE-CHIP RATIO5%27
RECRUITING CLASS#136 · 0/6 BC0
CLASS RANK TREND-2 · 3 CYCLES46
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 25 IN / 24 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
FIUWILLIE SIMMONS2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3838
PACE
7979
PASS RATE
4242
EXPLOSIVENESS
8080
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7575
HAVOC
6060
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NMSUTONY SANCHEZ3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4646
PACE
7474
PASS RATE
7070
EXPLOSIVENESS
3333
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
77
HAVOC
77
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNMSU OFFENSEFIU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNEW MEXICO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
134OF 138
TAL
27
PERF
29
RET
4
NATIONAL
94OF 136
RET
24
FULL DEFENSEFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL DEFENSE
NMSU QUARTERBACKSn=596% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TREY HEDDENQBTRUE FR
533RD YR4227★3+20
ADAM DAMANTEQBRET
513RD YR4713★2—
PARKER STOFAQBTRUE FR
302ND YR——UNR—
KALANI MCLEODQBTRUE FR
302ND YR——UNR—
TREY ARNOLDQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FIU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 47 PLAYERS67% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4333%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
3738%0%
SECONDARYDB
5230%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNEW MEXICO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
122OF 138
TAL
30
PERF
35
RET
25
DL
96OF 138
DL RET
33
LB
109OF 138
LB RET
38
FRONT-7FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL DEFENSE
NMSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1775% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAMES WILLIAMSOLPORTAL · UTEP
753RD YR7728★3+41
TYLER KEINATHOLPORTAL · BOISE STATE
604TH YR7445★3+32
MA'KYI LEEOLRET
534TH YR6217★3-11
CALEB PYFROMOLTRUE FR
522ND YR2274★3—
ARMOND OWENSOLPORTAL · GRAMBLING
493RD YR2645★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FIU FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS65% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PERCY COURTNEY JR.LBRET
534TH YR7021★3+11
ELIJAH SIMMONSDLPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
524TH YR215★3—
KYRIE SAMUELDLRET
514TH YR34—UNR—
JOSIAH TAYLORLBRET
513RD YR8138★3+14
RJ MOSS JR.DLPORTAL · SOUTH ALABAMA
503RD YR7245★3-27
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNEW MEXICO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
122OF 138
TAL
48
PERF
38
RET
37
DL
96OF 138
DL RET
33
LB
109OF 138
LB RET
38
FRONT-7FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL DEFENSE
NMSU RUNNING BACKSn=863% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAMES JONESRBPORTAL · DELAWARE STATE
474TH YR6664★3-28
ISAIAH RUDISONRBRET
464TH YR47—UNR-33
TJ WASHINGTON JR.RBPORTAL · IOWA
453RD YR5145★3-38
DIJON STANLEYRBRET
434TH YR6728★3+9
JALEN BROWNRBRET
403RD YR99★2—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FIU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS64% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554333%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453738%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENEW MEXICO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
97OF 138
TAL
53
PERF
44
RET
52
DB
65OF 138
DB RET
30
SECONDARYFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL DEFENSE
NMSU PASS CATCHERSn=2248% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TK KINGWRRET
624TH YR8463★3+26
AJ WILLIAMS IIIWRTRUE FR
523RD YR27—UNR—
CARSON SU'ESU'ETEPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
501ST YR1745★3—
JOSIAH THOMASTEPORTAL · WESTERN CAROLINA
482ND YR19—UNR—
BRODIE MALONE-BRADFORDWRRET
472ND YR6571★3+29
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FIU SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM70% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SHAMIR STERLINDBRET
832ND YR8027★3+17
WESLEY MILLERDBPORTAL · SOUTH ALABAMA
504TH YR9728★3+7
JAI-AYVIAUYNN CELESTINEDBRET
504TH YR7351★3+16
DEANDRE BOYKINSDBPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
474TH YR9228★3-28
DEMETRIUS HILLDBRET
474TH YR—59★3+6 2025
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NMSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FIU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
43.2
43.8
— OFFENSE
47.3
48.5
— DEFENSE
39.1
39.1
SP+ OVERALL
-15.0
-11.5
FPI
-13.5
-10.8
ELO
1261
1392
TALENT
460
608
PRODUCTION
9
17
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+7
+12
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.05
0.09
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NMSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FIU
OFF EFFICIENCY
9
34
DEF EFFICIENCY
47
45
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
58
75
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
74
40
FINISHING DRIVES
14
41
FIELD POSITION
63
34
TURNOVER MARGIN
42
77
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NMSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FIU
PASS RATE
54.2%
57.1%
PACE
28.4s
23.9s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
50.4%
50.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
64.9%
69.5%
PLAYS / GAME
63.3
75.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.7%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NMSU, ORANGE = FIU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE