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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 6›ODU @ APP›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
USM @ TROY0
JXST @ KENN0
NMSU @ FIU0
MOST @ WKU0
SHSU @ LIB0
USA @ ARST0
USF @ UTSA0
FSU @ LOU0
IOWA @ WASH0
WYO @ SJSU0
WSU @ USU0
ISU @ BYU0
HAW @ ASU0
MINN @ PUR0
JMU @ GASO0
ILL @ MSU0
MISS @ VAN0
SYR @ UVA0
CLT @ UNT0
MD @ OSU0
HOU @ KSU0
USC @ PSU0
ODU @ APP0
TENN @ ARK0
UCF @ OKST0
LSU @ UK0
CMU @ OHIO0
CONN @ TEM0
WAKE @ NCSU0
RICE @ ECU0
ARIZ @ WVU0
UNC @ PITT0
CCU @ MRSH0
BALL @ NU0
KENT @ WMU0
UCLA @ ORE0
SAC @ BGSU0
KU @ UTAH0
M-OH @ MASS0
TA&M @ MIZ0
IU @ NEB0
UL @ LT0
NEV @ UTEP0
SC @ FLA0
VT @ CAL0
DUKE @ GT0
UAB @ MEM0
UGA @ ALA0
BUF @ TOL0
TULN @ ARMY0
STAN @ ND0
TEX @ OU0
EMU @ AKR0
TLSA @ NAVY0
SDSU @ ORST0
NDSU @ UNLV0
AF @ NIU0
BOIS @ FRES0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
OLD DOMINION
APP STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|KIDD BREWER STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP27|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
96FPI
ODUSBCOLD DOMINION
1-1
12
55
61
9%
0
22
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
82FPI
APPSBCAPP STATE
2-0
39
21
15
38%
79
20
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
ODU35CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
82
PROE
24
TEMPO
0
EXPLOSIVE82p
82
PROE24p
24
TEMPO0p
0
APP76CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
59
PROE
90
TEMPO
79
EXPLOSIVE59p
59
PROE90p
90
TEMPO79p
79
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ODURECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.3-2.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.4
OLD DOMINION won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
APPRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.9-7.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.5
APP STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROLD DOMINIONAPP STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL96%Maarten WoudsmaOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONStephon Dubose-BourneOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRyan JoyceOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE90%Na'eem Abdul-Rahim GladdingPORTAL · MARYLAND · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJa'Cory ThomasPORTAL · VANDERBILT · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTre' BrownWR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB87%Colton JosephPORTAL · WISCONSIN · 87% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB77%Jeremy Mack Jr.LB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJahleel CulbreathPORTAL · UCF · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSeth NaotalaLB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB49%Trequan JonesPORTAL · TULSA · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKe'Travion HargroveRB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL46%Kris TrinidadDE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRicardo Williams Jr.DL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCole DanielsDL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB38%Jerome Carter IIIPORTAL · CLEMSON · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNickendre StigerS · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBotros AlisandroCB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLRaykwon Goldthwaite · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH ALABAMABubba Craig · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASMartez Curry · PORTAL ★3 · LINCOLN (MO)1 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEZion Agnew · PORTAL ★3 · LENOIR-RHYNEZion Agnew · PORTAL ★3 · LENOIR RHYNELeon Haughton Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLAND3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBJaxon Potter · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON STATEBrooklyn Nace · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBMontrell Chapman · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATELandon Kehoe · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBHunter Patterson · PORTAL ★3 · WEST LIBERTYTrey Hall · PORTAL ★3 · OLE MISSREFILLED
DLBucci Farmer · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATEMalachi Harris · SIGNEE ★3Chris HIlliard · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBJivan Baly · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATEShaq Leaks · SIGNEE ★3Eddie Guerra · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OLD DOMINION
CARRIED COMPOSITE
36.641 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
10.66 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
49.469 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB52522710052 OF 5 GRADED
RB6161355063 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE313134622CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL20202018CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL646433901510 OF 15 GRADED
LB77772842147 OF 14 GRADED
DB57573595229 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE12th12
BLUE-CHIP RATIO2%13
RECRUITING CLASS#96 · 0/18 BC29
CLASS RANK TREND+29 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 14 IN / 21 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 7th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
APPDOWELL LOGGAINS2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9393
PACE
8787
PASS RATE
9595
EXPLOSIVENESS
1818
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7575
HAVOC
6262
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ODURICKY RAHNE7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5050
PACE
3030
PASS RATE
5555
EXPLOSIVENESS
9494
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1414
HAVOC
6262
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESODU OFFENSEAPP OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOLD DOMINION OFFENSE
NATIONAL
76OF 138
TAL
27
PERF
52
RET
100
NATIONAL
113OF 136
RET
5
FULL DEFENSEAPP STATE DEFENSE
ODU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
QUINN HENICLEQBRET
482ND YR4426★3-35
RYAN HUFFQBRET
371ST YR241★3—
JAXON POTTERQBPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE
503RD YR—45★3+39 2025
BROOKLYN NACEQBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
LANDEN ABERNATHYQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
APP DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 47 PLAYERS70% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5051%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
5236%0%
SECONDARYDB
4719%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOLD DOMINION OFFENSE
NATIONAL
138OF 138
TAL
2
PERF
20
RET
0
DL
67OF 138
DL RET
51
LB
52OF 138
LB RET
36
FRONT-7APP STATE DEFENSE
ODU OFFENSIVE LINEn=18100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CONNOR DRAKEOLRET
483RD YR——UNR—
CARSON BRADLEYOLRET
453RD YR——UNR—
LOGAN COXOLRET
423RD YR—2★3—
RAYKWON GOLDTHWAITEOLTRUE FR
374TH YR—45★3—
BRAYDEN WALKEROLPORTAL · ELON
372ND YR—2★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
APP FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS55% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
COLTON PHARESLBRET
714TH YR8421★3+20
AIDEN BENTONDLRET
624TH YR72—UNR+33
KESHAWN THOMASLBPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
514TH YR—45★3—
CALEB SANDSTROMDLRET
494TH YR639★3+6
ALEX MITCHELLLBPORTAL · MIDDLE TENNESSEE
484TH YR4945★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOLD DOMINION OFFENSE
NATIONAL
29OF 138
TAL
35
PERF
61
RET
50
DL
67OF 138
DL RET
51
LB
52OF 138
LB RET
36
FRONT-7APP STATE DEFENSE
ODU RUNNING BACKSn=650% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DEVIN ROCHERBRET
583RD YR8237★3+16
JA'VARIEN SALTERRBTRUE FR
503RD YR——UNR—
TREY HALLRBPORTAL · OLE MISS
474TH YR—28★3—
MAURKI JAMESRBRET
492ND YR——UNR-25 2025
TROY MARQUEZRBRET
352ND YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
APP FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS56% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555051%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455236%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOLD DOMINION OFFENSE
NATIONAL
135OF 138
TAL
34
PERF
31
RET
6
DB
100OF 138
DB RET
19
SECONDARYAPP STATE DEFENSE
ODU PASS CATCHERSn=2294% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LEON HAUGHTON JR.TEPORTAL · MARYLAND
484TH YR5217★3-35
TJ JOHNSONWRRET
424TH YR4161★3-40
JJ HARRELLWRTRUE FR
372ND YR—45★3—
LONNIE JOHNSONTETRUE FR
372ND YR—28★3—
JOSH RODRIGUEZWRRET
351ST YR—50★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
APP SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM81% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KHALIL CONLEYDBPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
523RD YR3568★3—
DEVIN HENDERSONDBPORTAL · LIBERTY
503RD YR5745★3+63
JA'DEN MCBURROWSDBRET
504TH YR—45★3+2 2025
KALEB PURDYDBPORTAL · TENNESSEE TECH
474TH YR3645★3—
JAKOB GUDEDBPORTAL · UCF
473RD YR1986★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ODU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
APP
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
52.5
55.2
— OFFENSE
52.4
59.5
— DEFENSE
52.6
50.9
SP+ OVERALL
-6.9
-7.4
FPI
-7.0
-3.9
ELO
1289
1325
TALENT
544
622
PRODUCTION
33
19
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−23
+4
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.02
0.10
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ODU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
APP
OFF EFFICIENCY
75
36
DEF EFFICIENCY
81
15
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
66
24
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
97
73
FINISHING DRIVES
61
42
FIELD POSITION
30
76
TURNOVER MARGIN
52
55
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ODU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
APP
PASS RATE
37.4%
44.4%
PACE
36.4s
25.4s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
73.4%
58.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
57.1%
51.2%
PLAYS / GAME
49.5
71.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
2.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ODU, ORANGE = APP) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE