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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 6›CCU @ MRSH›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
USM @ TROY0
JXST @ KENN0
NMSU @ FIU0
MOST @ WKU0
SHSU @ LIB0
USA @ ARST0
USF @ UTSA0
FSU @ LOU0
IOWA @ WASH0
WYO @ SJSU0
WSU @ USU0
ISU @ BYU0
HAW @ ASU0
MINN @ PUR0
JMU @ GASO0
ILL @ MSU0
MISS @ VAN0
SYR @ UVA0
CLT @ UNT0
MD @ OSU0
HOU @ KSU0
USC @ PSU0
ODU @ APP0
TENN @ ARK0
UCF @ OKST0
LSU @ UK0
CMU @ OHIO0
CONN @ TEM0
WAKE @ NCSU0
RICE @ ECU0
ARIZ @ WVU0
UNC @ PITT0
CCU @ MRSH0
BALL @ NU0
KENT @ WMU0
UCLA @ ORE0
SAC @ BGSU0
KU @ UTAH0
M-OH @ MASS0
TA&M @ MIZ0
IU @ NEB0
UL @ LT0
NEV @ UTEP0
SC @ FLA0
VT @ CAL0
DUKE @ GT0
UAB @ MEM0
UGA @ ALA0
BUF @ TOL0
TULN @ ARMY0
STAN @ ND0
TEX @ OU0
EMU @ AKR0
TLSA @ NAVY0
SDSU @ ORST0
NDSU @ UNLV0
AF @ NIU0
BOIS @ FRES0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
COASTAL CAROLINA
MARSHALL
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|JOAN C. EDWARDS STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP6|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
111FPI
CCUSBCCOASTAL CAROLINA
1-1
24
32
23
15%
46
28
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
121FPI
MRSHSBCMARSHALL
1-1
30
19
25
99%
13
16
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
CCU45CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
69
PROE
19
TEMPO
46
EXPLOSIVE69p
69
PROE19p
19
TEMPO46p
46
MRSH14CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
12
PROE
18
TEMPO
13
EXPLOSIVE12p
12
PROE18p
18
TEMPO13p
13
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
CCURECORD OVERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs3.4-8.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.1
COASTAL CAROLINA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MRSHRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.1-5.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.5
MARSHALL won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCOASTAL CAROLINAMARSHALL2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Tad HudsonQB · 65% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSamari CollierPORTAL · DELAWARE STATE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMJ MorrisQB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL90%Zeke Durham-CampbellPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNoah ArinzeDE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSawyer Goram-WelchNT · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL71%Thomas JohnsonOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick Del GrandeOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoseph HansonOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE67%Bryson GravesPORTAL · DELAWARE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrooks JohnsonTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCameron WrightWR · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB65%Xamarion GordonS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAvyonne JonesS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMyles MooyoungCB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB56%Dontae LunanLB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLuke MurphyPORTAL · UCONN · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShane BruceLB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB54%Ja'Vin SimpkinsPORTAL · UAB · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen JohnRB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBTrever Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASOsiris Lopez · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLDonovan Grayson · PORTAL ★3 · SAMFORDMitchell Toney · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI STATEXzavier Booker · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMA A&M2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLApisa Poumele · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL MICHIGANMason Barton · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSON STATEPARTIAL
WR/TETristian Gardner · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI STATETamarion LaFortune · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN CONNECTICUT STATEClayton Coppock · PORTAL ★3 · KENNESAW STATE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBJalen Lee · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH DAKOTA STATEDamill Bostic Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · VILLANOVAMason Moore · PORTAL ★3 · LEHIGH3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBMarcellius Pulliam · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEAzarel Juste · PORTAL ★3 · BRYANTJordan Thompson · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN CAROLINA2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBDaelen Alexander · PORTAL ★3 · RICEREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · COASTAL CAROLINA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
25.314 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
18.716 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
28.518 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB484852051 OF 5 GRADED
RB3333578374 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE555545492010 OF 20 GRADED
OL53532560165 OF 16 GRADED
DL444434181611 OF 16 GRADED
LB4949457104 OF 10 GRADED
DB535357312311 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE24th24
BLUE-CHIP RATIO12%53
RECRUITING CLASS#118 · 0/13 BC12
CLASS RANK TREND-43 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 33 IN / 43 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MRSHTONY GIBSON2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1313
PACE
8686
PASS RATE
77
EXPLOSIVENESS
55
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
33
HAVOC
4747
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CCURYAN BEARDFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8888
PACE
2626
PASS RATE
8989
EXPLOSIVENESS
100100
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
77
HAVOC
2929
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCCU OFFENSEMRSH OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCOASTAL CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
88OF 138
TAL
52
PERF
48
RET
0
NATIONAL
86OF 136
RET
16
FULL DEFENSEMARSHALL DEFENSE
CCU QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DEUCE BAILEYQBTRUE FR
461ST YR4552★3+19
TREVER JACKSONQBPORTAL · ARKANSAS
382ND YR—64★3—
TRE GUERRAQBTRUE FR
303RD YR——UNR—
OSIRIS LOPEZQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—63★3—
LUKE MCBRIDEQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MRSH DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS59% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5222%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
5182%0%
SECONDARYDB
4436%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCOASTAL CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
64OF 138
TAL
25
PERF
53
RET
60
DL
60OF 138
DL RET
22
LB
59OF 138
LB RET
82
FRONT-7MARSHALL DEFENSE
CCU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1640% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TRAY FRANKLINOLRET
624TH YR—9★3-35 2025
GAVIN MCLAUGHLINOLRET
522ND YR——UNR—
JOSHUA DANIELOLTRUE FR
493RD YR——UNR—
KAIN MCDONALDOLRET
492ND YR—30★3—
DAUGHTRY RICHARDSONOLPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC
464TH YR—17★3-35 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MRSH FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS54% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRAYDIN WARDDLRET
563RD YR——UNR-10 2025
NATE BLANCDTTRUE FR
521ST YR——UNR—
MEKHI LOCKHARTDLRET
511ST YR628★3—
JAVAE GILMORELBRET
514TH YR7645★3+15
KENYATTA HARDGEDLTRUE FR
512ND YR30—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCOASTAL CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
128OF 138
TAL
57
PERF
33
RET
83
DL
60OF 138
DL RET
22
LB
59OF 138
LB RET
82
FRONT-7MARSHALL DEFENSE
CCU RUNNING BACKSn=717% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DAELEN ALEXANDERRBPORTAL · RICE
543RD YR—45★3+23 2025
JADEN ALLEN-HENDRIXRBPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
522ND YR117★3—
DOMINIC KNICELYRBRET
482ND YR5567★3+13
BREYAHN TOWNSENDRBRET
483RD YR31—UNR-58
JEVON EDWARDSRBRET
452ND YR5767★3-6
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MRSH FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS51% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555222%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455182%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECOASTAL CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
45OF 138
TAL
45
PERF
55
RET
49
DB
112OF 138
DB RET
36
SECONDARYMARSHALL DEFENSE
CCU PASS CATCHERSn=2051% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TRISTIAN GARDNERWRPORTAL · MISSOURI STATE
652ND YR6564★3+33
CYRUS ELLISONTEPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
504TH YR—17★3—
GOLDIE LAWRENCEWRPORTAL · FLORIDA A&M
493RD YR—28★3—
COLTON HINTONWRRET
494TH YR3245★3—
CLAYTON COPPOCK JR.WRTRUE FR
482ND YR6845★3-7
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MRSH SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM64% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PHILIPP DAVISDBRET
523RD YR3261★3—
BRAYDEN HALLCBPORTAL · CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
504TH YR1645★3—
DAYTIONE SMITHSRET
494TH YR9432★3+41
CALEB CLARK-GLOVERDBRET
463RD YR6433★3-17
TRISTAN LESTERSTRUE FR
451ST YR2—★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MRSH
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
41.7
39.5
— OFFENSE
46.3
45.4
— DEFENSE
37.1
33.5
SP+ OVERALL
-9.5
-11.7
FPI
-9.7
-13.9
ELO
1270
1388
TALENT
574
595
PRODUCTION
15
29
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+13
−1
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.12
0.06
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MRSH
OFF EFFICIENCY
8
64
DEF EFFICIENCY
22
74
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
60
5
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
41
5
FINISHING DRIVES
43
77
FIELD POSITION
34
8
TURNOVER MARGIN
36
81
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MRSH
PASS RATE
53.8%
48.2%
PACE
27.7s
32.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
57.5%
58.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
76.7%
62.9%
PLAYS / GAME
65.0
55.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.9%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CCU, ORANGE = MRSH) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE