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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 7›FIU @ JXST›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ MTSU0
FIU @ JXST0
KENN @ MOST0
WKU @ SHSU0
GASO @ ODU0
ECU @ UAB0
CSU @ TXST0
MEM @ TULN0
WASH @ PUR0
APP @ CCU0
MSST @ LSU0
OSU @ IU0
NU @ MSU0
UNC @ DUKE0
ALA @ TENN0
AUB @ UGA0
UVA @ SMU0
TCU @ BAY0
UNM @ HAW0
PITT @ BC0
FLA @ TEX0
OKST @ HOU0
BALL @ BGSU0
TOL @ EMU0
ARST @ USM0
LT @ ULM0
ARK @ VAN0
CIN @ WVU0
KU @ KSU0
OHIO @ SAC0
MASS @ BUF0
KENT @ USF0
WAKE @ CAL0
UTAH @ COLO0
ND @ BYU0
GAST @ JMU0
NAVY @ UTSA0
RUTG @ MD0
TLSA @ RICE0
MIZ @ MISS0
CLT @ TEM0
AKR @ M-OH0
UK @ OU0
PSU @ MICH0
FSU @ MIA0
TROY @ UL0
GT @ VT0
WIS @ UCLA0
LOU @ SYR0
ASU @ TTU0
WMU @ CMU0
NEB @ ORE0
FAU @ ARMY0
NIU @ WYO0
UNLV @ AF0
WSU @ ORST0
NEV @ NDSU0
SJSU @ UTEP0
FRES @ SDSU0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
JACKSONVILLE STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
TUE 20:00 ET|AMFIRST STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP2|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
109FPI
FIUCUSAFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
1-1
35
13
27
32%
91
6
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
106FPI
JXSTCUSAJACKSONVILLE STATE
1-2
33
19
10
50%
31
4
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
FIU53CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
34
PROE
33
TEMPO
91
EXPLOSIVE34p
34
PROE33p
33
TEMPO91p
91
JXST28CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
47
PROE
5
TEMPO
31
EXPLOSIVE47p
47
PROE5p
5
TEMPO31p
31
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
FIURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.4-5.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.5
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
JXSTRECORD MATCHES
8-5ACTUALvs7.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+2.8
JACKSONVILLE STATE won 8 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERFLORIDA INTERNATIONALJACKSONVILLE STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Keyone JenkinsPORTAL · UCF · 61% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoe PesanskyQB · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB70%Mister ClarkPORTAL · PURDUE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJessiah McGrewPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeuce Blades IIPORTAL · WAKE FOREST · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL69%Jaleel DavisOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaheim BuchanonOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJulius PierceOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL60%Keegan DavisDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuaylen HillDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOlasunkonmi AgunloyeDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE52%Dallas PayneTE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlex PerryWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin CayenneTE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB52%Kejon OwensRB · 51% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB46%Johnny Chaney Jr.LB · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJJ Kohl · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATEDJ Alexander · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBDeAndre Boykins · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEWesley Miller · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH ALABAMAVontae Floyd · PORTAL ★3 · DUKE7 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLRiley Wilson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLJamorie Flagg · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATERJ Moss Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH ALABAMAMichael Smarts · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEBarrett Schulz · SIGNEE ★3Malik Penson · SIGNEE ★3Ayden Passley · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBJayden Ford · SIGNEE ★3Justin Compere · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBBrayshawn Littlejohn · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATEDemitris Mincey · SIGNEE ★3De'Andre Arnold · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
CARRIED COMPOSITE
38.044 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
37.550 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
38.346 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB565664061 OF 6 GRADED
RB26267310062 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE4040365421CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL414145019CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL43434733197 OF 19 GRADED
LB3737473894 OF 9 GRADED
DB52523130198 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE35th35
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%39
RECRUITING CLASS#102 · 0/20 BC24
CLASS RANK TREND+7 · 3 CYCLES64
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 16 IN / 21 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
JXSTCHARLES KELLY2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
33
PACE
7676
PASS RATE
33
EXPLOSIVENESS
4646
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5858
HAVOC
7272
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
FIUWILLIE SIMMONS2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3838
PACE
7979
PASS RATE
4242
EXPLOSIVENESS
8080
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7575
HAVOC
6060
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESFIU OFFENSEJXST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL OFFENSE
NATIONAL
58OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
56
RET
0
NATIONAL
108OF 136
RET
18
FULL DEFENSEJACKSONVILLE STATE DEFENSE
FIU QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JJ KOHLQBPORTAL · APP STATE
493RD YR6664★3-12
ZACH MARKERQBTRUE FR
484TH YR——UNR+29 2025
DJ ALEXANDERQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—38★3—
ZACHARY WATERSQBRET
303RD YR——UNR—
TREY WHIRLEYQBTRUE FR
302ND YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JXST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 60 PLAYERS38% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5366%7%
LINEBACKERSLB
4289%6%
SECONDARYDB
5451%7%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL OFFENSE
NATIONAL
108OF 138
TAL
45
PERF
41
RET
0
DL
54OF 138
DL RET
66
LB
92OF 138
LB RET
89
FRONT-7JACKSONVILLE STATE DEFENSE
FIU OFFENSIVE LINEn=19100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTONIO TRIPP JR.OLRET
673RD YR—76★4+39 2025
JON RODRIGUEZOLRET
492ND YR—36★3—
SPENCER WEBBOLPORTAL · EASTERN MICHIGAN
484TH YR——UNR—
ZAIRE FLOURNOYOLRET
474TH YR—17★3+22 2025
DAVEION HARLEYOLPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
473RD YR—28★3+18 2024
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JXST FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS25% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAWAUN CAMPBELLDLRET
663RD YR88—UNR-15
MAC SANDERSLBRET
642ND YR7945★3+5
WALKER O'STEENLBRET
544TH YR76—UNR-37
CHRISTOPHER JOHNSONDLRET
501ST YR3960★3—
ANDREW RUMPHDLPORTAL · UCF
503RD YR2572★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL OFFENSE
NATIONAL
135OF 138
TAL
73
PERF
26
RET
100
DL
54OF 138
DL RET
66
LB
92OF 138
LB RET
89
FRONT-7JACKSONVILLE STATE DEFENSE
FIU RUNNING BACKSn=60% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
STERLING JOSEPHRBRET
521ST YR1865★3—
DEVONTE LYONSRBRET
502ND YR6168★3-7
ANTHONY CARRIERBRET
422ND YR7578★3-27
JAYDEN FORDRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—47★3—
JUSTIN COMPERERBTRUE FR
351ST YR—42★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JXST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS23% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555366%7%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454289%6%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL OFFENSE
NATIONAL
115OF 138
TAL
36
PERF
40
RET
54
DB
54OF 138
DB RET
51
SECONDARYJACKSONVILLE STATE DEFENSE
FIU PASS CATCHERSn=2146% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOJO STONEWRRET
572ND YR5217★3+27
GREG GAINES IIIWRPORTAL · RHODE ISLAND
484TH YR1917★3—
TYSON CARTERWRRET
472ND YR3246★3—
ERIC NELSON JR.WRRET
452ND YR4521★3-7
MAGUIRE ANDERSONWRRET
443RD YR73—UNR-7
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JXST SECONDARYn=27 · 1 ROOM49% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARC WOODSSRET
582ND YR5641★3+12
TRE'QUON FEGANSCBRET
534TH YR8545★3+13
JQ BROOKSCBRET
521ST YR3762★3—
JAHEIM JENKINSCBRET
514TH YR699★3-18
CALEB NIXSRET
514TH YR851★2+49
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
FIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
JXST
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
43.8
53.9
— OFFENSE
48.5
56.8
— DEFENSE
39.1
50.9
SP+ OVERALL
-11.5
-7.0
FPI
-9.3
-9.1
ELO
1409
1426
TALENT
608
603
PRODUCTION
17
31
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+12
+14
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.09
0.09
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
FIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
JXST
OFF EFFICIENCY
34
66
DEF EFFICIENCY
45
43
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
75
58
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
40
28
FINISHING DRIVES
41
60
FIELD POSITION
34
59
TURNOVER MARGIN
77
70
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
FIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
JXST
PASS RATE
57.6%
45.6%
PACE
23.8s
29.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
48.5%
60.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
68.5%
60.9%
PLAYS / GAME
75.5
60.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
2.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = FIU, ORANGE = JXST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE