SAT 19:45 ET|WILLIAMS-BRICE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP27|O/U48.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
31
10-3
61
100
44
86%
12
78
22.8
+130
+3.0
HOME
7
4-8
88
36
79
63%
13
91
25.8
-155
-3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALVAN31—SC7
CLOSED SC -3.0TOTAL 48.5VAN COVERED · 38 POINTS · UNDER
VAN
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
SC
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=47
MARKET
TOTAL48.5
SPREADSC -3.0
IMPLIED — VAN22.8
IMPLIED — SC25.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
45FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT7 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 7 positions on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
VANRECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs9.6-2.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+17.5
VANDERBILT won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
SCRECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.6
SOUTH CAROLINA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERVANDERBILTSOUTH CAROLINA2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL51%Gunnar HansenPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSteven HubbardOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDelfin Xavier CastilloOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB40%CJ TaylorS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDe'Rickey WrightS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyson RussellCB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL27%De'Marion ThomasPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian JamesDL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAeneas DiCosmoDL · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE22%Quincy Skinner Jr.WR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB10%Maurice Hampton Jr.LB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB2%Nate JohnsonPORTAL · UTAH · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB0%Brennan StorerQB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLJordan White · PORTAL ★4 · LIBERTYBryce Henderson · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH DAKOTASterling Porcher · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS TECH3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJordan Matthews · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEECarson Lawrence · SIGNEE ★4Davin Chandler · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJaylon Stone · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATEKeanu Koht · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMAMason Nelson · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN MICHIGAN2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TETre Richardson · PORTAL ★3 · WASHBURNTrent Hudson · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATECameran Dickson · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBAustin Howard · SIGNEE ★4Josiah Broxton · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
RBGabe Fields · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBJack Elliott · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · VANDERBILT
CARRIED COMPOSITE
60.291 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
51.569 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
64.994 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB8181849554 OF 5 GRADED
RB54545677108 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE767677782315 OF 23 GRADED
OL565670371812 OF 18 GRADED
DL585860691917 OF 19 GRADED
LB62626596119 OF 11 GRADED
DB616162632217 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE61st61
BLUE-CHIP RATIO17%67
RECRUITING CLASS#76 · 2/14 BC44
CLASS RANK TREND-24 · 3 CYCLES2
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 20 IN / 21 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
SCSHANE BEAMER5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6262
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6060
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
VANCLARK LEA5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4141
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6464
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESVAN OFFENSESC OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBVANDERBILT OFFENSEFULL DEFENSESOUTH CAROLINA DEFENSE VAN QUARTERBACKSn=55% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SC DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS29% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLVANDERBILT OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTH CAROLINA DEFENSE VAN OFFENSIVE LINEn=1863% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SC FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS38% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBVANDERBILT OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTH CAROLINA DEFENSE VAN RUNNING BACKSn=1023% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SC FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS39% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556467%54%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455053%35%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEVANDERBILT OFFENSESECONDARYSOUTH CAROLINA DEFENSE VAN PASS CATCHERSn=2322% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SC SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM21% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
VAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SC
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−33
+23
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
VAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SC
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
VAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SC
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS55.2%
56.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS67.7%
64.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.4%
0.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = VAN, ORANGE = SC) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE