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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 7›SFA @ NICH›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ MTSU0
FIU @ JXST0
KENN @ MOST0
WKU @ SHSU0
GASO @ ODU0
ECU @ UAB0
CSU @ TXST0
MEM @ TULN0
WASH @ PUR0
APP @ CCU0
MSST @ LSU0
OSU @ IU0
NU @ MSU0
UNC @ DUKE0
ALA @ TENN0
AUB @ UGA0
UVA @ SMU0
TCU @ BAY0
UNM @ HAW0
PITT @ BC0
FLA @ TEX0
OKST @ HOU0
BALL @ BGSU0
TOL @ EMU0
ARST @ USM0
LT @ ULM0
ARK @ VAN0
CIN @ WVU0
KU @ KSU0
OHIO @ SAC0
MASS @ BUF0
KENT @ USF0
WAKE @ CAL0
UTAH @ COLO0
ND @ BYU0
GAST @ JMU0
NAVY @ UTSA0
RUTG @ MD0
TLSA @ RICE0
MIZ @ MISS0
CLT @ TEM0
AKR @ M-OH0
UK @ OU0
PSU @ MICH0
FSU @ MIA0
TROY @ UL0
GT @ VT0
WIS @ UCLA0
LOU @ SYR0
ASU @ TTU0
WMU @ CMU0
NEB @ ORE0
FAU @ ARMY0
NIU @ WYO0
UNLV @ AF0
WSU @ ORST0
NEV @ NDSU0
SJSU @ UTEP0
FRES @ SDSU0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
NICHOLLS
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2026
SAT 16:00 ET|MANNING FIELD AT JOHN L. GUIDRY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
—FPI
SFASLCSTEPHEN F. AUSTIN
4-0
0
0
0
0%
0
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
—FPI
NICHSLCNICHOLLS
2-2
0
0
0
0%
0
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT2 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2026 · FULL SEASON
No 2026 record, and no earlier season to carry forward for these teams.
TEAM LEDGERSTEPHEN F. AUSTINNICHOLLS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Myles LopezQB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB0%Anthony Williams Jr.RB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE0%Lavar LindoTE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%Nicholas PerezOL · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL0%Victor IdusuyiDL · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB0%Jaydon SouthardLB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB0%Michael Patterson IIIPORTAL · TEXAS STATE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION13 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJacob Janecek · SIGNEEINTACT
RBJoseph Dodds · PORTAL ★3 · BAYLORRickey Stewart Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASCaleb Crenshaw · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
WR/TEJayden Fortier · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA STATECordale Russell · PORTAL ★4 · MIAMI (OH)INTACT
OLSione Hingano · PORTAL ★3 · BYUEvan Odom · PORTAL ★3 · TULSAChristian Pettway · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASINTACT
DLLandon Williams · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICOLarry Jones III · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICO STATETravon Sylvester · PORTAL · UTSAINTACT
LBEli Ennis · PORTAL · UABINTACT
DBAvyonne Jones · PORTAL ★3 · COASTAL CAROLINAChauncey Davis · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADO STATEMarco Tyson · PORTAL ★2 · OLD DOMINIONINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
0.00 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB———213CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
RB———304CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE———7010CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL————1CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL——17115CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB——45568CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB404059119CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
RECRUITING CLASS#149 · 0/12 BC0
CLASS RANK TREND-3 · 3 CYCLES44
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NICH—FIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SFA—FIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSFA OFFENSENICH OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSTEPHEN F. AUSTIN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
—
TAL
—
PERF
—
RET
21
NATIONAL
—
RET
—
FULL DEFENSENICHOLLS DEFENSE
SFA QUARTERBACKSn=379% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GAVIN RUTHERFORDQBRET
—2ND YR——UNR—
BRYSON BROADWAYQBRET
—1ST YR——UNR—
JT KITNAQBRET
—1ST YR——★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NICH DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 7 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
——0%
LINEBACKERSLB
——0%
SECONDARYDB
37—0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSTEPHEN F. AUSTIN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
—
TAL
—
PERF
—
RET
—
DL
—
DL RET
—
LB
—
LB RET
—
FRONT-7NICHOLLS DEFENSE
SFA OFFENSIVE LINEn=1RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOHNNY HOLLYOLRET
—3RD YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NICH FRONT-7n=3 · 2 ROOMSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOEY LIGHTFOOTNTRET
451ST YR——UNR—
KENNON LOFTINLBTRUE FR
383RD YR——★3—
ALEX VILLAVASODLRET
—1ST YR——UNR—
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSTEPHEN F. AUSTIN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
—
TAL
—
PERF
—
RET
30
DL
—
DL RET
—
LB
—
LB RET
—
FRONT-7NICHOLLS DEFENSE
SFA RUNNING BACKSn=470% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RICKEY STEWART JR.RBPORTAL · TEXAS
371ST YR——★3—
PRESTON ALFORDRBRET
303RD YR——UNR—
JAYLEN JENKINSRBRET
—3RD YR——★3—
BRADEN LEWISRBRET
—1ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NICH FRONT-72 ROOMS · 3 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.55——0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.45——0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESTEPHEN F. AUSTIN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
—
TAL
—
PERF
—
RET
70
DB
—
DB RET
—
SECONDARYNICHOLLS DEFENSE
SFA PASS CATCHERSn=1030% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BUGS MORTIMERWRRET
473RD YR——★4+32 2024
AIDEN MEEKSWRRET
382ND YR——★3—
DERRICK BOHLERWRRET
372ND YR——★3—
JAYDEN FORTIERTEPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE
371ST YR——★3—
GERARD EDIMOTERET
352ND YR——★3—
SHOW ALL 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NICH SECONDARYn=4 · 1 ROOMRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LYNARD HARRISDBTRUE FR
552ND YR——UNR-10 2025
JHAMAL SHELBY JR.DBPORTAL · LOUISIANA TECH
483RD YR——★3-8 2025
ZAVIAN DILWORTHDBTRUE FR
343RD YR——★2—
TRAVIN MOORESRET
301ST YR——UNR—
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SFA, ORANGE = NICH) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE