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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 8›JMU @ APP›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
MTSU @ FIU0
MOST @ DEL0
USA @ MRSH0
NMSU @ SHSU0
JMU @ APP0
LIB @ KENN0
ECU @ MEM0
DUKE @ UVA0
MASS @ CONN0
ARMY @ TLSA0
AF @ WYO0
NCSU @ STAN0
M-OH @ CMU0
ODU @ LT0
USC @ WIS0
HAW @ NIU0
MSU @ UCLA0
WVU @ TCU0
VT @ CLEM0
PITT @ MIA0
BYU @ UCF0
BAY @ KU0
OU @ MSST0
ISU @ ARIZ0
IOWA @ MINN0
BGSU @ BUF0
EMU @ OHIO0
MISS @ TEX0
BC @ GT0
VAN @ UK0
AKR @ KENT0
SAC @ BALL0
CAL @ SMU0
TENN @ SC0
KSU @ ASU0
TA&M @ ALA0
UL @ USM0
HOU @ UTAH0
TTU @ CIN0
IU @ MICH0
ULM @ TROY0
RUTG @ NU0
UTSA @ TULN0
WMU @ TOL0
RICE @ FAU0
ORE @ ILL0
COLO @ OKST0
SYR @ UNC0
LSU @ AUB0
UNT @ NAVY0
SJSU @ NEV0
BOIS @ WSU0
SDSU @ CSU0
GAST @ ARST0
USU @ TXST0
NDSU @ UNM0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
JAMES MADISON
APP STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
THU 19:00 ET|KIDD BREWER STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP12|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
68FPI
JMUSBCJAMES MADISON
2-0
27
28
96
8%
11
19
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
82FPI
APPSBCAPP STATE
2-0
39
21
15
38%
79
8
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
JMU33CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
70
PROE
19
TEMPO
11
EXPLOSIVE70p
70
PROE19p
19
TEMPO11p
11
APP76CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
59
PROE
90
TEMPO
79
EXPLOSIVE59p
59
PROE90p
90
TEMPO79p
79
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
JMURECORD MATCHES
12-1ACTUALvs11.5-1.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+21.5
JAMES MADISON won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 11.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
APPRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.9-7.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.5
APP STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERJAMES MADISONAPP STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Alonza Barnett IIIPORTAL · UCF · 96% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB92%Jacob ThomasS · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah CulpCB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler BrownDB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE86%Lacota DippreTE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh PhiferTE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick DeGennaroWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB85%Wayne KnightPORTAL · UCLA · 59% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan FullerRB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJobi MalaryRB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL77%Sahir WestPORTAL · UCLA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAiden GobairaPORTAL · UCLA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONXavier HolmesDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB68%Trent HendrickPORTAL · UCLA · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDrew SpinogattiLB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL58%Pat McMurtrieOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCarter SweazieOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRiley RobellOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DBJayon Harvey · PORTAL ★3 · FINDLAYDamier Minkah · PORTAL ★3 · SHEPHERDJavis Mynatt · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS STATE5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEJeremiah Harrison · PORTAL ★3 · EAST TENNESSEE STATEMicah Matthews · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA TECHCorey Scott · PORTAL ★3 · WEST FLORIDA7 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DLErnest Willor Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSINMason Purham · PORTAL ★3 · EMORY & HENRY COLLEGECory Simon · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBJosiah Perry · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLKaedin Massey · PORTAL ★3 · KANSAS STATEDJ Fox · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSIN-RIVER FALLSPARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · JAMES MADISON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
20.58 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
22.619 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
18.911 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB545459142 OF 4 GRADED
RB5656667173 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE4646531927CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL434338018CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL717139531711 OF 17 GRADED
LB6767322584 OF 8 GRADED
DB61614238229 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE27th27
BLUE-CHIP RATIO5%28
RECRUITING CLASS#80 · 0/21 BC41
CLASS RANK TREND+28 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 37 IN / 30 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
APPDOWELL LOGGAINS2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9393
PACE
8787
PASS RATE
9595
EXPLOSIVENESS
1818
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7575
HAVOC
6262
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
JMUBILLY NAPIERFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3939
PACE
1818
PASS RATE
4444
EXPLOSIVENESS
6262
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4141
HAVOC
4747
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESJMU OFFENSEAPP OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBJAMES MADISON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
66OF 138
TAL
59
PERF
54
RET
1
NATIONAL
113OF 136
RET
5
FULL DEFENSEAPP STATE DEFENSE
JMU QUARTERBACKSn=499% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JC EVANSQBRET
522ND YR2046★3—
ARRINGTON MAIDENQBPORTAL · MEMPHIS
512ND YR—61★3—
CAMDEN COLEMANQBRET
493RD YR1545★3—
TANNER VIBABULQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—42★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
APP DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 47 PLAYERS70% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5051%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
5236%0%
SECONDARYDB
4719%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLJAMES MADISON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
102OF 138
TAL
38
PERF
43
RET
0
DL
67OF 138
DL RET
51
LB
52OF 138
LB RET
36
FRONT-7APP STATE DEFENSE
JMU OFFENSIVE LINEn=18100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZACH GREENBERGOLRET
554TH YR—45★3+20 2025
EVAN BUSHONGOLRET
522ND YR—26★3—
GRIFFIN HARTOLRET
513RD YR——UNR—
FRANKIE TINILAUOLPORTAL · EAST TENNESSEE STATE
493RD YR—28★3—
JAKOBE CAMPBELLOLRET
492ND YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
APP FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS55% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
COLTON PHARESLBRET
714TH YR8421★3+20
AIDEN BENTONDLRET
624TH YR72—UNR+33
KESHAWN THOMASLBPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
514TH YR—45★3—
CALEB SANDSTROMDLRET
494TH YR639★3+6
ALEX MITCHELLLBPORTAL · MIDDLE TENNESSEE
484TH YR4945★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBJAMES MADISON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
50OF 138
TAL
66
PERF
56
RET
71
DL
67OF 138
DL RET
51
LB
52OF 138
LB RET
36
FRONT-7APP STATE DEFENSE
JMU RUNNING BACKSn=729% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JACKSON MCCARTERRBRET
511ST YR—52★3—
GEORGE PETTAWAYRBRET
514TH YR8885★3+14
SETH CROMWELLRBPORTAL · NORTHERN ARIZONA
494TH YR1117★3—
NICK HERMANRBPORTAL · DRAKE
432ND YR528★3—
TRASHON DYERBRET
412ND YR—59★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
APP FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS56% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555051%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455236%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEJAMES MADISON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
88OF 138
TAL
53
PERF
46
RET
19
DB
100OF 138
DB RET
19
SECONDARYAPP STATE DEFENSE
JMU PASS CATCHERSn=2781% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RYDER POSTTERET
522ND YR——UNR—
BRAEDEN WISLOSKIWRRET
524TH YR6763★3+18
ZA'RON COLLINSWRRET
493RD YR409★3-25
MICHAEL SCOTTWRRET
452ND YR—54★3-10 2025
ARRION CONCEPCIONWRRET
371ST YR—28★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
APP SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM81% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KHALIL CONLEYDBPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
523RD YR3568★3—
DEVIN HENDERSONDBPORTAL · LIBERTY
503RD YR5745★3+63
JA'DEN MCBURROWSDBRET
504TH YR—45★3+2 2025
KALEB PURDYDBPORTAL · TENNESSEE TECH
474TH YR3645★3—
JAKOB GUDEDBPORTAL · UCF
473RD YR1986★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
JMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
APP
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
46.1
55.2
— OFFENSE
53.1
59.5
— DEFENSE
39.0
50.9
SP+ OVERALL
4.0
-7.4
FPI
0.1
-3.9
ELO
1776
1325
TALENT
588
622
PRODUCTION
50
19
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−5
+4
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.05
0.10
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
JMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
APP
OFF EFFICIENCY
74
36
DEF EFFICIENCY
100
15
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
73
24
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
3
73
FINISHING DRIVES
69
42
FIELD POSITION
6
76
TURNOVER MARGIN
56
55
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
JMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
APP
PASS RATE
42.2%
44.4%
PACE
33.0s
25.4s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
63.2%
58.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
63.6%
51.2%
PLAYS / GAME
54.5
71.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
5.5%
2.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = JMU, ORANGE = APP) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE