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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 8›UL @ USM›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
MTSU @ FIU0
MOST @ DEL0
USA @ MRSH0
NMSU @ SHSU0
JMU @ APP0
LIB @ KENN0
ECU @ MEM0
DUKE @ UVA0
MASS @ CONN0
ARMY @ TLSA0
AF @ WYO0
NCSU @ STAN0
M-OH @ CMU0
ODU @ LT0
USC @ WIS0
HAW @ NIU0
MSU @ UCLA0
WVU @ TCU0
VT @ CLEM0
PITT @ MIA0
BYU @ UCF0
BAY @ KU0
OU @ MSST0
ISU @ ARIZ0
IOWA @ MINN0
BGSU @ BUF0
EMU @ OHIO0
MISS @ TEX0
BC @ GT0
VAN @ UK0
AKR @ KENT0
SAC @ BALL0
CAL @ SMU0
TENN @ SC0
KSU @ ASU0
TA&M @ ALA0
UL @ USM0
HOU @ UTAH0
TTU @ CIN0
IU @ MICH0
ULM @ TROY0
RUTG @ NU0
UTSA @ TULN0
WMU @ TOL0
RICE @ FAU0
ORE @ ILL0
COLO @ OKST0
SYR @ UNC0
LSU @ AUB0
UNT @ NAVY0
SJSU @ NEV0
BOIS @ WSU0
SDSU @ CSU0
GAST @ ARST0
USU @ TXST0
NDSU @ UNM0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN MISS
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|M. M. ROBERTS STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
93FPI
ULSBCLOUISIANA
1-1
28
24
7
92%
30
2
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
97FPI
USMSBCSOUTHERN MISS
1-1
32
27
17
90%
69
30
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
UL36CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
67
PROE
10
TEMPO
30
EXPLOSIVE67p
67
PROE10p
10
TEMPO30p
30
USM41CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
9
PROE
46
TEMPO
69
EXPLOSIVE9p
9
PROE46p
46
TEMPO69p
69
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ULRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.3-6.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-2.9
LOUISIANA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
USMRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.6-5.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+2.4
SOUTHERN MISS won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERLOUISIANASOUTHERN MISS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB90%Zylan PerryPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBill DavisRB · 45% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB79%Jaden DuggerDRAFTED · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerrence WilliamsLB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCameron WhitfieldLB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL58%Jordan LawsonDE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaelen CriderDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKadarius MillerDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB54%Courtline FlowersS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen ClarkS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyree SkipperS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL40%Jax HarringtonOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryant WilliamsOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE34%Robert WilliamsWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCharles RobertsonWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrey MillerTE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB12%Walker HowardQB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBAnthony Reagan Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · HOWARDKe'Rynn Smith · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBPrinceton Malbrue · PORTAL ★3 · LSUPatrick Gosslee · SIGNEE ★3Harrison Kidder · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLTito Chikere · PORTAL ★3 · EAST TEXAS A&MBrodrick Stewart · PORTAL ★3 · TARLETON STATEJordan Pinnock · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBEdrick Williams · SIGNEE ★3Jayden Reed · SIGNEE ★3Luke Green · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLJayce Mitchell · PORTAL ★3 · TULANEJai'Vale Mayes-Hudson · SIGNEE ★3Gunnar Goodwin · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEJeremiah Birdlow · SIGNEE ★3Kristion Brooks · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · LOUISIANA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
51.483 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
76.6100 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
37.744 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB54543310052 OF 5 GRADED
RB2929285664 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE4646372619CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL383841022CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL33334795136 OF 13 GRADED
LB27273496146 OF 14 GRADED
DB363640962010 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE28th28
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%16
RECRUITING CLASS#91 · 0/23 BC32
CLASS RANK TREND+26 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 5 IN / 7 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
USMBLAKE ANDERSONFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2424
PACE
9494
PASS RATE
3939
EXPLOSIVENESS
4343
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5858
HAVOC
6262
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ULMICHAEL DESORMEAUX5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3737
PACE
2929
PASS RATE
3333
EXPLOSIVENESS
3131
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5151
HAVOC
2020
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUL OFFENSEUSM OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBLOUISIANA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
69OF 138
TAL
33
PERF
54
RET
100
NATIONAL
80OF 136
RET
7
FULL DEFENSESOUTHERN MISS DEFENSE
UL QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LUNCH WINFIELDQBRET
613RD YR63—UNR+1
DANIEL BEALEQBRET
422ND YR5133★3-56
COLEMAN CARTERQBRET
351ST YR—36★3—
SAM ALTMANNQBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
ALEX MUNOZQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USM DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS87% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
486%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
4741%0%
SECONDARYDB
587%23%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLLOUISIANA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
113OF 138
TAL
41
PERF
38
RET
0
DL
79OF 138
DL RET
6
LB
74OF 138
LB RET
41
FRONT-7SOUTHERN MISS DEFENSE
UL OFFENSIVE LINEn=22100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GEORGE JACKSONOLRET
594TH YR—58★3-3 2025
ZAY ALEXANDEROLRET
512ND YR—78★3—
BAYLYNN WILLIAMSOLRET
481ST YR—30★3—
COOPER FORDHAMOLRET
483RD YR—47★3+7 2025
J'MARION GOOCHOLRET
473RD YR—74★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USM FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS80% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
XAVIER MCIVERDLPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA
514TH YR—45★3—
MATHIS HAYGOODLBRET
503RD YR59—UNR+16
MELVIN SPRIGGSLBPORTAL · AKRON
493RD YR7017★3+12
JEFFERY RUSH JR.DLTRUE FR
472ND YR2228★3—
WILL SMITHDLPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
442ND YR3864★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBLOUISIANA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
133OF 138
TAL
28
PERF
29
RET
56
DL
79OF 138
DL RET
6
LB
74OF 138
LB RET
41
FRONT-7SOUTHERN MISS DEFENSE
UL RUNNING BACKSn=644% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
STEVEN BLANCORBRET
552ND YR4119★3+20
DARRELL SMITHRBRET
511ST YR938★3+35
ANTHONY REAGAN JR.RBTRUE FR
503RD YR—9★3—
JJ GARNERRBRET
471ST YR—56★3—
KE'RYNN SMITHRBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USM FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS78% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.55486%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454741%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TELOUISIANA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
90OF 138
TAL
37
PERF
46
RET
26
DB
35OF 138
DB RET
7
SECONDARYSOUTHERN MISS DEFENSE
UL PASS CATCHERSn=1974% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CADEN JENSENTERET
613RD YR796★2-21 2025
BROCK CHAPPELLTERET
474TH YR—5★3+10 2025
TRENTON CHANEYWRRET
461ST YR1842★3—
KEDARIUS WADEWRRET
433RD YR38—UNR—
RAHJI DENNISWRRET
432ND YR4076★3-56
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USM SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM93% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHAMP LEWISDBPORTAL · TULSA
473RD YR5462★3-26
KOLBY PEAVYDBPORTAL · ALABAMA
463RD YR2017★3—
KOBI ALBERTDBPORTAL · UCONN
463RD YR3917★3—
JEREMIAH DILLONCBTRUE FR
464TH YR—88★4—
JYAIRE BROWNDBPORTAL · UCF
454TH YR6845★3-35
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USM
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
54.5
47.9
— OFFENSE
56.6
51.5
— DEFENSE
52.3
44.2
SP+ OVERALL
-6.6
-16.2
FPI
-6.5
-7.1
ELO
1387
1285
TALENT
591
603
PRODUCTION
26
7
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−4
+31
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.03
0.13
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USM
OFF EFFICIENCY
17
21
DEF EFFICIENCY
8
50
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
30
82
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
75
62
FINISHING DRIVES
49
38
FIELD POSITION
81
41
TURNOVER MARGIN
47
94
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USM
PASS RATE
43.0%
44.2%
PACE
29.8s
26.1s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
61.5%
60.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
52.6%
62.1%
PLAYS / GAME
60.5
69.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.8%
2.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UL, ORANGE = USM) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE