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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›JXST @ NMSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
JACKSONVILLE STATE
NEW MEXICO STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
WED 20:00 ET|AGGIE MEMORIAL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP31|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
106FPI
JXSTCUSAJACKSONVILLE STATE
1-2
33
19
10
50%
31
5
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
119FPI
NMSUCUSANEW MEXICO STATE
1-2
2
8
41
24%
38
10
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
JXST28CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
47
PROE
5
TEMPO
31
EXPLOSIVE47p
47
PROE5p
5
TEMPO31p
31
NMSU70CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
84
PROE
88
TEMPO
38
EXPLOSIVE84p
84
PROE88p
88
TEMPO38p
38
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
JXSTRECORD MATCHES
8-5ACTUALvs7.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+2.8
JACKSONVILLE STATE won 8 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NMSURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.3-7.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.0
NEW MEXICO STATE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERJACKSONVILLE STATENEW MEXICO STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB75%Cam CookPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 75% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE72%Pearson BaldwinTE · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrock RechsteinerWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb CoombsWR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL62%Talan CarterPORTAL · VANDERBILT · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGharin StansburyDE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarrell PraterPORTAL · ILLINOIS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB51%Tyrin TaylorCB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrevor WoodsS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTravis Franklin Jr.PORTAL · WYOMING · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL48%Amare GraysonOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONReggie JacksonOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAdrian GummOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB45%Malcolm JonesPORTAL · IOWA STATE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaac WalkerLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONThaxton GallagherLB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB31%Gavin WimsattQB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBCedric Kouemi · SIGNEE ★3Maurice Winston · SIGNEE ★3Landon Watkins · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TERonnel Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI STATEDarius Cannon · PORTAL ★3 · MURRAY STATEPARTIAL
DLTristan Lyles · SIGNEE ★3Jermaine Waters Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Austin Bouck · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBRob Billings IV · PORTAL ★3 · CLEMSONVernon Woodward III · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOISKaden Cook · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIA3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLCaleb Holmes · PORTAL ★3 · PITTSBURGHHadine Diaby · PORTAL ★3 · NEVADAVern Faulk · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBBrayden Matthews · SIGNEE ★3Devin Pettway · SIGNEE ★3Jameson McCollough · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBNoah Lee · SIGNEE ★3Donovan Moorhead · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · JACKSONVILLE STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
41.453 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
31.436 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
47.967 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5959649752 OF 5 GRADED
RB53535410083 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE49493234276 OF 27 GRADED
OL39393838247 OF 24 GRADED
DL535358661510 OF 15 GRADED
LB424251891811 OF 18 GRADED
DB545439512714 OF 27 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE33rd33
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%44
RECRUITING CLASS#86 · 0/30 BC36
CLASS RANK TREND+42 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 20 IN / 13 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NMSUTONY SANCHEZ3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4646
PACE
7474
PASS RATE
7070
EXPLOSIVENESS
3333
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
77
HAVOC
77
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
JXSTCHARLES KELLY2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
33
PACE
7676
PASS RATE
33
EXPLOSIVENESS
4646
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5858
HAVOC
7272
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESJXST OFFENSENMSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBJACKSONVILLE STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
51OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
59
RET
97
NATIONAL
80OF 136
RET
16
FULL DEFENSENEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE
JXST QUARTERBACKSn=53% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CADEN CREELQBRET
693RD YR68—UNR+2
JACK MORANQBRET
381ST YR564★3—
NOAH LEEQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—63★3—
DONOVAN MOORHEADQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—55★3—
KADYN PALMERQBRET
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NMSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 48 PLAYERS27% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3976%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
3083%0%
SECONDARYDB
4468%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLJACKSONVILLE STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
112OF 138
TAL
38
PERF
39
RET
38
DL
110OF 138
DL RET
76
LB
128OF 138
LB RET
83
FRONT-7NEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE
JXST OFFENSIVE LINEn=2462% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JEREMIAH ORROLRET
544TH YR5728★3—
AMARII ATCHISONOLPORTAL · MERCER
523RD YR1728★3—
CAM STANCILOLTRUE FR
503RD YR33—UNR—
LUCAS MRACHKOVSKIYOLRET
492ND YR80—UNR+7
RYAN WALKEROLPORTAL · NORTH ALABAMA
493RD YR32—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NMSU FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS21% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRAD VISLISELDERET
663RD YR67—UNR+9
TORY GETHERSLBRET
644TH YR8328★3+8
JASON GWANDLRET
523RD YR33—UNR—
JEREMIAH SANDIFORDDLPORTAL · TENNESSEE TECH
524TH YR2317★3—
CHANCE BARRONLBRET
523RD YR27—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBJACKSONVILLE STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
61OF 138
TAL
54
PERF
53
RET
100
DL
110OF 138
DL RET
76
LB
128OF 138
LB RET
83
FRONT-7NEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE
JXST RUNNING BACKSn=80% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JALEN LIKELYRBRET
512ND YR36—UNR+34
LUCAS FARRINGTONRBRET
501ST YR2154★3—
KHRISTIAN LANDORBRET
432ND YR50—UNR-38
CEDRIC KOUEMIRBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
JUSTUS SAVAGERBRET
522ND YR—65★3-14 2025
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NMSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS21% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553976%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453083%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEJACKSONVILLE STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
76OF 138
TAL
32
PERF
49
RET
34
DB
108OF 138
DB RET
68
SECONDARYNEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE
JXST PASS CATCHERSn=2766% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DEONDRE JOHNSONWRRET
703RD YR815★3+30
JAMILL WILLIAMSWRPORTAL · ALBANY STATE
524TH YR1328★3—
DAVID ALPERS IIITETRUE FR
514TH YR17—UNR—
FRANKLIN BARET JR.WRRET
502ND YR311★2—
LUKE GILBERTTERET
492ND YR1434★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NMSU SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM32% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DE'MARCUS PETERSCBPORTAL · TEXAS A&M-KINGSVILLE
504TH YR379★3—
JAVON GILLESPIECBPORTAL · EAST TEXAS A&M
493RD YR2545★3—
RJ CHAPMANSPORTAL · MERRIMACK
494TH YR24—UNR—
LORENZO SMITHSRET
474TH YR619★3-4
DJ CLOYDSRET
454TH YR3437★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
JXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NMSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
53.9
43.2
— OFFENSE
56.8
47.3
— DEFENSE
50.9
39.1
SP+ OVERALL
-7.0
-15.0
FPI
-9.1
-13.0
ELO
1426
1261
TALENT
603
460
PRODUCTION
31
9
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+14
+7
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.09
0.05
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
JXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NMSU
OFF EFFICIENCY
66
9
DEF EFFICIENCY
43
47
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
58
58
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
28
74
FINISHING DRIVES
60
14
FIELD POSITION
59
63
TURNOVER MARGIN
70
42
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
JXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NMSU
PASS RATE
45.6%
54.2%
PACE
29.7s
28.4s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
60.5%
50.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
60.9%
64.9%
PLAYS / GAME
60.7
63.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
2.8%
3.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = JXST, ORANGE = NMSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE