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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›TROY @ JMU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
TROY
JAMES MADISON
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
THU 19:30 ET|BRIDGEFORTH STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
104FPI
TROYSBCTROY
2-0
31
10
44
35%
51
32
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
68FPI
JMUSBCJAMES MADISON
2-0
27
28
96
8%
11
15
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
TROY64CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
96
PROE
45
TEMPO
51
EXPLOSIVE96p
96
PROE45p
45
TEMPO51p
51
JMU33CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
70
PROE
19
TEMPO
11
EXPLOSIVE70p
70
PROE19p
19
TEMPO11p
11
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TROYRECORD OVERSTATES
8-5ACTUALvs6.5-6.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.2
TROY won 8 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
JMURECORD MATCHES
12-1ACTUALvs11.5-1.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+21.5
JAMES MADISON won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 11.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTROYJAMES MADISON2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL88%Jah-Mal WilliamsDE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah DavisDE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTaleeq RobbinsDE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE82%Ethan ConnerTE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDJ EppsPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRara ThomasWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB69%Devin LafayetteS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKaleno LevineCB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaquez WhitePORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB61%Tae MeadowsPORTAL · AUBURN · 53% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJarris WilliamsRB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB58%Jordan StringerLB · 40% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSteven CattledgeLB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL58%Matt HenryOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPaul BowlingOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEli RussOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB3%Ui AlePORTAL · DELAWARE STATE · 3% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLKavion Henderson · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASAugust Salvati · PORTAL ★3 · SAN DIEGO STATETy Clemons · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEDylan Denson · SIGNEE ★3Nick Hampton · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBMarcus Goree Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEEKnai Cook · PORTAL ★3 · CHARLESTON SOUTHERNJonathan Pennix · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERN MISS4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJaheim Merriweather · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUEREFILLED
LBBryce Steele · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGEKendarius Reynolds · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLJordon Jones · PORTAL ★3 · OHIOTrinton Pritchett · SIGNEE ★3Corey Dudley Jr. · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TROY
CARRIED COMPOSITE
26.317 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
25.525 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
26.717 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB26267310041 OF 4 GRADED
RB2020522973 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE39394617207 OF 20 GRADED
OL31311540175 OF 17 GRADED
DL57573427136 OF 13 GRADED
LB61612145137 OF 13 GRADED
DB47475079228 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE31st31
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%43
RECRUITING CLASS#76 · 0/16 BC44
CLASS RANK TREND+13 · 3 CYCLES76
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 14 IN / 27 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
JMUBILLY NAPIERFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3939
PACE
1818
PASS RATE
4444
EXPLOSIVENESS
6262
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4141
HAVOC
4747
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TROYGERAD PARKER3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3636
PACE
3333
PASS RATE
5454
EXPLOSIVENESS
5757
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6060
HAVOC
6262
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTROY OFFENSEJMU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTROY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
135OF 138
TAL
73
PERF
26
RET
100
NATIONAL
26OF 136
RET
7
FULL DEFENSEJAMES MADISON DEFENSE
TROY QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GOOSE CROWDERQBRET
484TH YR6973★3-9
TUCKER KILCREASEQBRET
444TH YR—30★3-9 2025
JACK JAMESQBRET
372ND YR—54★3—
RODGE WALDROPQBTRUE FR
303RD YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JMU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 47 PLAYERS60% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
7153%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
6725%0%
SECONDARYDB
6138%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTROY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
130OF 138
TAL
15
PERF
31
RET
40
DL
10OF 138
DL RET
53
LB
14OF 138
LB RET
25
FRONT-7JAMES MADISON DEFENSE
TROY OFFENSIVE LINEn=1760% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ELIJAH PRATHEROLRET
614TH YR——UNR-28 2025
TYLER CAPPIOLRET
534TH YR——UNR-29 2025
DARION RIVERSOLPORTAL · NC STATE
494TH YR—17★3—
JORDON JONESOLPORTAL · OHIO
494TH YR—17★3-18 2025
PATRICK SCREWS JR.OLRET
484TH YR—9★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JMU FRONT-7n=25 · 2 ROOMS58% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AMAR THOMASEDGERET
624TH YR8664★3+22
CHUKWUNEDU OKEKEDLPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY
522ND YR—53★3—
NAKIAN JACKSONLBPORTAL · NEVADA
504TH YR6628★3+7
TURNER SCHMIDTEDGERET
492ND YR2945★3—
LEE JOHNSONLBRET
491ST YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTROY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
138OF 138
TAL
52
PERF
20
RET
29
DL
10OF 138
DL RET
53
LB
14OF 138
LB RET
25
FRONT-7JAMES MADISON DEFENSE
TROY RUNNING BACKSn=771% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GAVIN GRIFFINRBTRUE FR
493RD YR31—UNR-9
JAHEIM MERRIWEATHERRBPORTAL · PURDUE
483RD YR3628★3-34
JORDAN LOVETTRBRET
414TH YR7371★3-33
BRYCE BURGESSRBTRUE FR
303RD YR——UNR—
DENNIS PALMERRBRET
503RD YR—28★3-46 2025
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JMU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 25 PLAYERS59% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557153%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456725%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETROY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
119OF 138
TAL
46
PERF
39
RET
17
DB
24OF 138
DB RET
38
SECONDARYJAMES MADISON DEFENSE
TROY PASS CATCHERSn=2083% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JACKSON WORLEYTERET
554TH YR4732★3+4
NOREEL WHITEWRTRUE FR
513RD YR988★4—
FABIAN ROGOSCHTERET
494TH YR18—UNR—
TK KEYESWRTRUE FR
463RD YR—37★3—
TJ LOTTWRPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
464TH YR4117★3-19
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JMU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM62% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KEN WILLISCBRET
604TH YR585★3-16
CHASE REGANSRET
523RD YR—29★3—
DJ KELLYCBPORTAL · TOLEDO
492ND YR4754★3—
TJ MCGILLSRET
473RD YR40—UNR—
KJ FLOWESRET
463RD YR5755★3-25
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TROY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
JMU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
51.9
46.1
— OFFENSE
47.9
53.1
— DEFENSE
55.9
39.0
SP+ OVERALL
-7.1
4.0
FPI
-8.8
0.1
ELO
1416
1776
TALENT
596
588
PRODUCTION
30
50
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+25
−5
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.09
0.05
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TROY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
JMU
OFF EFFICIENCY
14
74
DEF EFFICIENCY
66
100
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
71
73
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
33
3
FINISHING DRIVES
56
69
FIELD POSITION
20
6
TURNOVER MARGIN
50
56
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TROY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
JMU
PASS RATE
43.2%
42.2%
PACE
27.3s
33.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
65.9%
63.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
61.4%
63.6%
PLAYS / GAME
66.0
54.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
5.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TROY, ORANGE = JMU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE