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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›MRSH @ ODU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MARSHALL
OLD DOMINION
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|S.B. BALLARD STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP18|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
117FPI
MRSHSBCMARSHALL
2-1
30
19
25
99%
18
8
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
99FPI
ODUSBCOLD DOMINION
1-2
12
55
61
9%
1
15
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MRSH14CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
7
PROE
18
TEMPO
18
EXPLOSIVE7p
7
PROE18p
18
TEMPO18p
18
ODU41CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
96
PROE
24
TEMPO
1
EXPLOSIVE96p
96
PROE24p
24
TEMPO1p
1
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MRSHRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.1-5.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.5
MARSHALL won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ODURECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.3-2.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.4
OLD DOMINION won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMARSHALLOLD DOMINION2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL78%Paul Hutson IIIPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamaal Whyce Jr.PORTAL · BAYLOR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNaquan CrowderPORTAL · MINNESOTA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB75%Antwan Roberts Jr.PORTAL · ARIZONA · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael AllenPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin Williams-ThomasPORTAL · MASSACHUSETTS · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL67%Shunmarkus AdamsOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEric MeeksOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian RichterOL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB58%Jibreel Al-AminLB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKerion MartinLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJayland ParkerLB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB51%Cam SmithS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarvae MyersDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarrell SweetingPORTAL · UAB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE26%Demarcus LaceyWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB6%JacQai LongQB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLKeydel Painter · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA UNIONTerry Nwabuisi-Ezeala · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILTCole Funderburk · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FOREST2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJamarion Wilcox · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYJosiah McLaurin · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLANDTJ Lester · PORTAL ★3 · WEST GEORGIAREFILLED
OLJaquez Joiner · PORTAL ★3 · UCFRobby Martin · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIALogan Greer · PORTAL ★3 · PENNWEST CALIFORNIA3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBAndre Parker · SIGNEE ★3Zeke Gunn · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBBrayden Hall · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL CONNECTICUTTerrente Hinton · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATEJaycee Houston · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEChristian Hamilton · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIAChris Culliver · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINABrennan Chambers · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MARSHALL
CARRIED COMPOSITE
42.961 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
48.973 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
39.547 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB69694110052 OF 5 GRADED
RB3232557044 OF 4 GRADED
WR/TE47471872209 OF 20 GRADED
OL555533402111 OF 21 GRADED
DL525244221710 OF 17 GRADED
LB51515382106 OF 10 GRADED
DB444441362214 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE30th30
BLUE-CHIP RATIO6%31
RECRUITING CLASS#123 · 0/17 BC8
CLASS RANK TREND-20 · 3 CYCLES10
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 27 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ODURICKY RAHNE7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5050
PACE
3030
PASS RATE
5555
EXPLOSIVENESS
9494
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1414
HAVOC
6262
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MRSHTONY GIBSON2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1313
PACE
8686
PASS RATE
77
EXPLOSIVENESS
55
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
33
HAVOC
4747
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMRSH OFFENSEODU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMARSHALL OFFENSE
NATIONAL
18OF 138
TAL
41
PERF
69
RET
100
NATIONAL
28OF 136
RET
42
FULL DEFENSEOLD DOMINION DEFENSE
MRSH QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CARLOS DEL RIO-WILSONQBRET
674TH YR7545★3-17
KHALIL WILKINSQBPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
502ND YR3517★3-55
ZION TURNERQBRET
444TH YR709★3-31
KOI FAGANQBRET
351ST YR—62★3—
DYLAN BARBERQBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ODU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS16% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6490%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
7742%0%
SECONDARYDB
5795%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMARSHALL OFFENSE
NATIONAL
56OF 138
TAL
33
PERF
55
RET
40
DL
21OF 138
DL RET
90
LB
4OF 138
LB RET
42
FRONT-7OLD DOMINION DEFENSE
MRSH OFFENSIVE LINEn=2160% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JALEN SLAPPYOLRET
644TH YR—32★3+21 2025
XAVIER BAUSLEYOLPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
544TH YR—78★3+22 2025
LOGAN GREEROLTRUE FR
493RD YR—17★3—
ROBBY MARTINOLPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
492ND YR—45★3—
ANDREW DUDLEYOLRET
491ST YR—34★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ODU FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS29% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KOA NAOTALALBRET
634TH YR84—UNR-5
JACKSON FORRESTLBRET
582ND YR6045★3+20
MARIO THOMPSONLBRET
553RD YR9524★3+22
AHMAAD FOSTERDLRET
542ND YR4129★3—
DEANDRE LYNCHDLRET
523RD YR75—UNR-27
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMARSHALL OFFENSE
NATIONAL
131OF 138
TAL
55
PERF
32
RET
70
DL
21OF 138
DL RET
90
LB
4OF 138
LB RET
42
FRONT-7OLD DOMINION DEFENSE
MRSH RUNNING BACKSn=430% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JUDAH PRICERBRET
492ND YR24—UNR-22
JO'SHON BARBIERBRET
474TH YR5264★3-41
TJ LESTERRBTRUE FR
462ND YR517★3—
ANTHONY QUINN JR.RBRET
441ST YR552★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ODU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS32% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556490%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.457742%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMARSHALL OFFENSE
NATIONAL
81OF 138
TAL
18
PERF
47
RET
72
DB
41OF 138
DB RET
95
SECONDARYOLD DOMINION DEFENSE
MRSH PASS CATCHERSn=2028% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ADRIAN NORTONWRRET
594TH YR9732★3+16
TOBY PAYNETERET
554TH YR8815★2-7 2025
OWEN SWEENEYWRPORTAL · VMI
492ND YR——UNR—
XAYVION TURNER-BRADSHAWWRRET
484TH YR382★3+31
CHRIS CULLIVERWRPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
443RD YR5828★3+21
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ODU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM5% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZION FRINKCBRET
673RD YR7864★3-22
LUCAS STRUCKSRET
653RD YR53—UNR+58
MARIO EASTERLYSRET
584TH YR9432★3+39
JORIAN HAYNESCBRET
543RD YR47—UNR—
JUSTIN WATTSCBRET
482ND YR41—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MRSH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ODU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
39.5
52.5
— OFFENSE
45.4
52.4
— DEFENSE
33.5
52.6
SP+ OVERALL
-11.7
-6.9
FPI
-11.9
-7.3
ELO
1391
1295
TALENT
595
544
PRODUCTION
29
33
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−1
−23
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.06
0.02
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MRSH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ODU
OFF EFFICIENCY
64
75
DEF EFFICIENCY
74
81
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
5
66
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
5
97
FINISHING DRIVES
77
61
FIELD POSITION
8
30
TURNOVER MARGIN
81
52
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MRSH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ODU
PASS RATE
43.8%
35.4%
PACE
30.3s
34.2s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
61.6%
73.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
56.6%
50.0%
PLAYS / GAME
59.3
52.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MRSH, ORANGE = ODU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE