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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›APP @ GASO›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
APP STATE
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|ALLEN E. PAULSON STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP5|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
87FPI
APPSBCAPP STATE
3-0
39
21
15
38%
88
1
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
101FPI
GASOSBCGEORGIA SOUTHERN
1-2
44
45
2
6%
86
20
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
APP83CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
73
PROE
90
TEMPO
88
EXPLOSIVE73p
73
PROE90p
90
TEMPO88p
88
GASO56CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
16
PROE
65
TEMPO
86
EXPLOSIVE16p
16
PROE65p
65
TEMPO86p
86
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
APPRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.9-7.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.5
APP STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
GASORECORD OVERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs4.6-7.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.3
GEORGIA SOUTHERN won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERAPP STATEGEORGIA SOUTHERN2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%AJ SwannQB · 43% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJJ KohlPORTAL · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNoah GillonQB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB91%Ethan JohnsonDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEmory FloydDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZyeir GamblePORTAL · EAST CAROLINA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE83%David LarkinsTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDalton StromanWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden BarnesPORTAL · CHARLOTTE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL70%Rondo PorterPORTAL · RUTGERS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKevin Abrams-VerwayneDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDylan ManuelPORTAL · COLORADO · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL68%Will FlowersOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShamarr JacksonOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJayden RamseyOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB63%Kyle ArnholtLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrayshawn LittlejohnPORTAL · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaelin WillisLB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB56%Rashod DubinionRB · 52% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBMalachi Singleton · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUEBronzden Chaffin · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBDevin Henderson · PORTAL ★3 · LIBERTYCary Grant · PORTAL ★3 · CHARLOTTEKaleb Purdy · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEE TECH3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEJamel Howse · SIGNEE ★3Kamauri Austin · SIGNEE ★3Kabran Paul · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLKi'Shawn Harvey · PORTAL ★3 · EAST TENNESSEE STATEJordan Harris · SIGNEE ★4Manny Lewis · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
OLDevon Manuel · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDAScottland Dover · SIGNEE ★3Caden Muskus · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBBryant Junius · SIGNEE ★3Michael McClenton · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBJ'Marion Burnette · PORTAL ★3 · HOUSTONREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · APP STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
25.715 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
33.342 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
21.213 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB545443053 OF 5 GRADED
RB4545544475 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE505019112214 OF 22 GRADED
OL525236402010 OF 20 GRADED
DL505027511814 OF 18 GRADED
LB5252343698 OF 9 GRADED
DB474738192017 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE39th39
BLUE-CHIP RATIO10%45
RECRUITING CLASS#59 · 1/25 BC56
CLASS RANK TREND+35 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 38 IN / 41 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
GASOCLAY HELTON5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9494
PACE
8787
PASS RATE
9393
EXPLOSIVENESS
3737
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1818
HAVOC
5555
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
APPDOWELL LOGGAINS2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9393
PACE
8787
PASS RATE
9595
EXPLOSIVENESS
1818
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7575
HAVOC
6262
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESAPP OFFENSEGASO OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBAPP STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
64OF 138
TAL
43
PERF
54
RET
0
NATIONAL
132OF 136
RET
25
FULL DEFENSEGEORGIA SOUTHERN DEFENSE
APP QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MALACHI SINGLETONQBPORTAL · PURDUE
504TH YR4645★3+30
HENRY HASSELBECKQBPORTAL · UCLA
473RD YR—60★3—
TOMMY ULATOWSKIQBPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE
414TH YR7017★3-24 2023
BRONZDEN CHAFFINQBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
GREGORY FEEQBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GASO DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS44% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
2350%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
3244%4%
SECONDARYDB
4962%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLAPP STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
74OF 138
TAL
36
PERF
52
RET
40
DL
135OF 138
DL RET
50
LB
124OF 138
LB RET
44
FRONT-7GEORGIA SOUTHERN DEFENSE
APP OFFENSIVE LINEn=2060% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TYRIQ POINDEXTEROLRET
514TH YR—45★3—
MAC WALTERSOLPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA
504TH YR——UNR—
LANCE WILLIAMSOLRET
494TH YR—17★3—
JAYDEN THOMASOLTRUE FR
493RD YR——UNR—
CAYDEN SWEATTOLRET
494TH YR—40★3-2 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GASO FRONT-7n=35 · 2 ROOMS53% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LATRELL BULLARDDLRET
524TH YR——UNR-42 2025
ANTHONY BYNUMLBPORTAL · MIDDLE TENNESSEE
504TH YR9717★3-30
CALEB MOOREDLRET
493RD YR—67★3-22 2025
BRANDON TYSONLBRET
494TH YR8517★3+19
JACOB HAMMONDSLBRET
494TH YR2823★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBAPP STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
104OF 138
TAL
54
PERF
45
RET
44
DL
135OF 138
DL RET
50
LB
124OF 138
LB RET
44
FRONT-7GEORGIA SOUTHERN DEFENSE
APP RUNNING BACKSn=756% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TREYAUN WEBBRBPORTAL · FLORIDA
514TH YR4887★4+23
JA'QUEZ CROSSRBPORTAL · ARKANSAS STATE
494TH YR9443★3+3
KANYE ROBERTSRBRET
444TH YR8715★2+0 2024
JAQUARI LEWISRBRET
442ND YR7666★3-31
MAX GUESTRBRET
382ND YR—49★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GASO FRONT-72 ROOMS · 35 PLAYERS53% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552350%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453244%4%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEAPP STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
70OF 138
TAL
19
PERF
50
RET
11
DB
84OF 138
DB RET
62
SECONDARYGEORGIA SOUTHERN DEFENSE
APP PASS CATCHERSn=2289% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SAM PICKETT IIIWRPORTAL · SAMFORD
522ND YR—9★3—
NATE BRANCHWRTRUE FR
523RD YR——UNR—
DAZMIN JAMESWRTRUE FR
524TH YR—28★3—
JAMEL HOWSETETRUE FR
511ST YR——★3—
DARRIN FUGITTTETRUE FR
504TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GASO SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM38% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CARLO THOMPSONDBRET
514TH YR22—UNR—
JAYLEN BENTLEYDBRET
493RD YR—27★3—
CHANCE GAMBLEDBRET
484TH YR859★3-29
CHACE CALICUTDBTRUE FR
471ST YR—90★4—
DEVIN COLLIERDBRET
473RD YR5460★3+57
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
APP
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
GASO
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
55.2
65.1
— OFFENSE
59.5
69.8
— DEFENSE
50.9
60.4
SP+ OVERALL
-7.4
-6.6
FPI
-5.0
-7.8
ELO
1324
1358
TALENT
622
634
PRODUCTION
19
25
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+4
−13
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.10
0.12
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
APP
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
GASO
OFF EFFICIENCY
36
67
DEF EFFICIENCY
15
3
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
24
48
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
73
52
FINISHING DRIVES
42
74
FIELD POSITION
76
74
TURNOVER MARGIN
55
54
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
APP
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
GASO
PASS RATE
48.4%
60.9%
PACE
24.9s
25.1s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
57.0%
47.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
60.3%
79.1%
PLAYS / GAME
72.3
71.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
1.8%
2.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = APP, ORANGE = GASO) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE