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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›USM @ ULM›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
SOUTHERN MISS
UL MONROE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|MALONE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP28|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
97FPI
USMSBCSOUTHERN MISS
1-1
32
27
17
90%
69
42
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
137FPI
ULMSBCUL MONROE
0-2
4
16
42
39%
46
25
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
USM41CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
9
PROE
46
TEMPO
69
EXPLOSIVE9p
9
PROE46p
46
TEMPO69p
69
ULM18CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
1
PROE
8
TEMPO
46
EXPLOSIVE1p
1
PROE8p
8
TEMPO46p
46
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
USMRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.6-5.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+2.4
SOUTHERN MISS won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ULMRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.1-9.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-15.3
UL MONROE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSOUTHERN MISSUL MONROE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB98%Josh MotenCB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIan FosterPORTAL · MEMPHIS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAhmere FosterPORTAL · MEMPHIS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION10 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE97%Carl ChesterWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah MetcalfWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKadinn MorrisTE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL93%Brodarius LewisDT · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJ'Mond TappPORTAL · MEMPHIS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah Gibson Sr.DL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION10 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB89%Braylon BraxtonQB · 89% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB81%Jeffery PittmanRB · 40% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMatt JonesRB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylin CarterPORTAL · MEMPHIS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB80%Chris JonesPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMike MontgomeryPORTAL · MEMPHIS · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoseph HarperLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL62%Broderick RomanOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHayes CreelOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBlake BustardOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBJonah Martinez · PORTAL ★3 · TCUJyaire Brown · PORTAL ★3 · UCFJordan Pride · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&M2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEJaylen Himes · PORTAL ★3 · WINGATEA.J. Little · PORTAL ★3 · CHATTANOOGADavid Aboya · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DLWill Smith · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASAmari Wilson · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA SOUTHERNA'mari Wilson · PORTAL ★3 · CAMPBELL3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBHugh Price · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBJamarice Wilder · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLEBrandon Hood · PORTAL ★3 · MASSACHUSETTSREFILLED
LBAndrew Martin · PORTAL ★3 · STETSONCaleb Triplett · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLChristian Young · PORTAL ★3 · EMORY & HENRY COLLEGEChristian Young · PORTAL ★3 · EMORY & HENRYBraden Cain · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS SOUTHERN1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SOUTHERN MISS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
15.96 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
30.934 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
7.02 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5454351753 OF 5 GRADED
RB444437485 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE343429121CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL414121020CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL48482162011 OF 20 GRADED
LB47471841108 OF 10 GRADED
DB58583472215 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE32nd32
BLUE-CHIP RATIO12%56
RECRUITING CLASS#108 · 0/10 BC20
CLASS RANK TREND-31 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 37 IN / 28 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ULMBRYANT VINCENT3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
44
PACE
55
PASS RATE
55
EXPLOSIVENESS
9696
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6767
HAVOC
1616
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
USMBLAKE ANDERSONFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2424
PACE
9494
PASS RATE
3939
EXPLOSIVENESS
4343
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5858
HAVOC
6262
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUSM OFFENSEULM OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSOUTHERN MISS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
71OF 138
TAL
35
PERF
54
RET
17
NATIONAL
112OF 136
RET
15
FULL DEFENSEUL MONROE DEFENSE
USM QUARTERBACKSn=583% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ETHAN HAMPTONQBPORTAL · ILLINOIS
484TH YR7536★3-37
LANDRY LYDDYQBRET
454TH YR609★3+7
JOHN WHITEQBRET
412ND YR3249★3-3
HUGH PRICEQBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
MADDOX MCCRORYQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ULM DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS51% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3740%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
4776%0%
SECONDARYDB
4144%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSOUTHERN MISS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
107OF 138
TAL
21
PERF
41
RET
0
DL
116OF 138
DL RET
40
LB
70OF 138
LB RET
76
FRONT-7UL MONROE DEFENSE
USM OFFENSIVE LINEn=20100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LIAM CASSIDYOLRET
523RD YR—17★3—
ALOALI'I MAUIOLRET
484TH YR—17★3+20 2025
LUKE ROGERSOLRET
483RD YR—34★3—
GREG NUNNERYOLRET
484TH YR——UNR-13 2025
ZERIAN HUDSONOLTRUE FR
434TH YR——★2-22 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ULM FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS46% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NOAH FLEMMINGSLBRET
754TH YR76—UNR+5
JAMES SMITHDLRET
574TH YR69—UNR+16
MOSES MADUBUIKEDETRUE FR
523RD YR6—UNR—
KEVONTAY WELLSDLRET
514TH YR——★3+23 2025
MARCUS ROSSLBRET
504TH YR6617★3+22
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSOUTHERN MISS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
110OF 138
TAL
37
PERF
44
RET
4
DL
116OF 138
DL RET
40
LB
70OF 138
LB RET
76
FRONT-7UL MONROE DEFENSE
USM RUNNING BACKSn=896% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
STEVEN ROBINSONRBTRUE FR
523RD YR——UNR+35
JAYLEN FOSTERRBTRUE FR
523RD YR—22★3—
JAMARICE WILDERRBPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
521ST YR1145★3+32
ROBERT HENDERSONRBRET
502ND YR——UNR—
ROBERT BRIGGSRBRET
464TH YR8830★3-3
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ULM FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS44% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553740%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454776%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESOUTHERN MISS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
133OF 138
TAL
29
PERF
34
RET
1
DB
123OF 138
DB RET
44
SECONDARYUL MONROE DEFENSE
USM PASS CATCHERSn=2199% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JEREMIAH BECK JR.TETRUE FR
493RD YR——UNR—
GRANT PAGEWRRET
444TH YR7128★3-27
MARIO SANDERSWRTRUE FR
414TH YR328★3—
AJ LITTLEWRTRUE FR
373RD YR—28★3—
PRESTON KILGORETEPORTAL · EAST TEXAS A&M
373RD YR—9★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ULM SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM56% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KORIAN WILSONDBRET
784TH YR7313★2-15
JABARI TILLERDBRET
724TH YR60—UNR+6
TAIJH OVERTONSPORTAL · ARKANSAS
522ND YR1764★3—
JAYDEN LEWISDBTRUE FR
503RD YR16—UNR—
CARL FAUNTROYSRET
494TH YR9017★3+4
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
USM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ULM
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
47.9
36.4
— OFFENSE
51.5
44.5
— DEFENSE
44.2
28.3
SP+ OVERALL
-16.2
-29.3
FPI
-7.1
-22.8
ELO
1285
1079
TALENT
603
505
PRODUCTION
7
1
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+31
+11
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.13
0.11
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
USM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ULM
OFF EFFICIENCY
21
11
DEF EFFICIENCY
50
58
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
82
92
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
62
12
FINISHING DRIVES
38
10
FIELD POSITION
41
92
TURNOVER MARGIN
94
4
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
USM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ULM
PASS RATE
44.2%
39.2%
PACE
26.1s
27.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
60.5%
70.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
62.1%
67.7%
PLAYS / GAME
69.0
65.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
2.2%
2.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = USM, ORANGE = ULM) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE