SAT 12:00 ET|L&N FEDERAL CREDIT UNION STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP42|O/U50.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
17
4-8
23
5
38
8%
14
7
12.0
+1600
+26.5
HOME
40
9-4
64
72
84
46%
32
64
38.5
-4000
-26.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALBGSU17—LOU40
CLOSED LOU -26.5TOTAL 50.5BGSU COVERED · 57 POINTS · OVER
BGSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
LOU
BGSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
LOU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=50
MARKET
TOTAL50.5
SPREADLOU -26.5
IMPLIED — BGSU12.0
IMPLIED — LOU38.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
37FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT13 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 13 positions on a 50-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
BGSURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.8-7.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.8
BOWLING GREEN won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
LOURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.4-3.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.1
LOUISVILLE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBOWLING GREENLOUISVILLE2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB99%Jaison PattersonRB · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamal JohnsonRB · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerion StewartPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB96%Connor BazelakQB · 96% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB94%Joseph Sipp Jr.PORTAL · KANSAS · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrock HorneLB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCharles RosserLB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB88%Jordan OladokunCB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCJ BrownPORTAL · SAM HOUSTON · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacorey BenjaminDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE80%Harold Fannin Jr.DRAFTED · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalcolm Johnson Jr.WR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLevi GazarekTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL74%Dontrez BrownDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnthony HawkinsDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAli SaadDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL26%Alex WollschlaegerPORTAL · KENTUCKY · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBAustyn Dendy · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURIPARTIAL
QBJT Kitna · SIGNEE ★3Carsen Melvin · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBGideon Lampron · PORTAL ★3 · DAYTONAndrew Hines III · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FORESTCashmire Lewis · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBMJ Cannon · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOIS STATEMateo Sudipo · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN CAROLINAJalen McClendon · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEE STATE5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEArlis Boardingham · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDABrennan Ridley · PORTAL ★3 · HAMPTONAustin Clay · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLCollins Acheampong · PORTAL ★3 · UCLADior Garner · SIGNEE ★3Jaimion Olverson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLZane Panchula · SIGNEE ★3Masyn Zahursky · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BOWLING GREEN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
24.316 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
42.855 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
14.86 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB2727142354 OF 5 GRADED
RB50504516108 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE424233422114 OF 21 GRADED
OL373736871511 OF 15 GRADED
DL464634751714 OF 17 GRADED
LB55554214119 OF 11 GRADED
DB404045322113 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE23rd23
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%14
RECRUITING CLASS#94 · 0/22 BC30
CLASS RANK TREND+25 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 21 IN / 29 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
LOUJEFF BROHM3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8585
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2121
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BGSUEDDIE GEORGEFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
55
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1717
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBGSU OFFENSELOU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBOWLING GREEN OFFENSEFULL DEFENSELOUISVILLE DEFENSE BGSU QUARTERBACKSn=577% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LOU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 46 PLAYERS48% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBOWLING GREEN OFFENSEFRONT-7LOUISVILLE DEFENSE BGSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1513% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LOU FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS45% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBOWLING GREEN OFFENSEFRONT-7LOUISVILLE DEFENSE BGSU RUNNING BACKSn=1084% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LOU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS44% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556446%17%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455368%20%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBOWLING GREEN OFFENSESECONDARYLOUISVILLE DEFENSE BGSU PASS CATCHERSn=2158% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LOU SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM50% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BGSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LOU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+4
−17
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BGSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LOU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BGSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LOU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS69.3%
53.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS59.5%
72.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.1%
1.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BGSU, ORANGE = LOU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE