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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 9›FIU @ LIB›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
DEL @ WKU0
SHSU @ MOST0
KENN @ MTSU0
JXST @ NMSU0
TROY @ JMU0
FAU @ UNT0
TULN @ CLT0
BAY @ UCF0
KENT @ SAC0
STAN @ LOU0
ARIZ @ TTU0
ILL @ MD0
ARMY @ MEM0
BC @ DUKE0
AUB @ MISS0
LT @ USA0
GT @ PITT0
CCU @ GAST0
KU @ TCU0
USM @ ULM0
UNM @ SJSU0
UVA @ WAKE0
UTAH @ CIN0
MRSH @ ODU0
ORST @ FRES0
NU @ ORE0
OSU @ USC0
MSST @ TEX0
WIS @ IOWA0
SMU @ SYR0
PUR @ PSU0
TEM @ ECU0
WASH @ NEB0
CLEM @ FSU0
ASU @ BYU0
OKST @ ISU0
MICH @ RUTG0
SC @ OU0
MINN @ IU0
MIA @ UNC0
APP @ GASO0
NEV @ UCLA0
UAB @ USF0
CAL @ NCSU0
MIZ @ ARK0
KSU @ COLO0
BGSU @ WMU0
ND @ NAVY0
CONN @ AF0
FIU @ LIB0
CSU @ USU0
UTEP @ NDSU0
FLA @ UGA0
WSU @ SDSU0
TXST @ BOIS0
NIU @ UNLV0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
LIBERTY
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2026
SAT 15:30 ET|WILLIAMS STADIUM (VA)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP8|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
114FPI
FIUCUSAFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
1-2
35
13
27
32%
94
7
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
83FPI
LIBCUSALIBERTY
2-1
43
30
4
38%
41
4
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
FIU58CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
45
PROE
33
TEMPO
94
EXPLOSIVE45p
45
PROE33p
33
TEMPO94p
94
LIB42CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
71
PROE
14
TEMPO
41
EXPLOSIVE71p
71
PROE14p
14
TEMPO41p
41
IS THE RECORD REAL2026 · FULL SEASON
FIURECORD MATCHES
1-2ACTUALvs1.4-1.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.0
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL won 1 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 1.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
LIBRECORD MATCHES
2-1ACTUALvs2.2-0.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+10.0
LIBERTY won 2 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 2.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERFLORIDA INTERNATIONALLIBERTY2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Keyone JenkinsPORTAL · UCF · 61% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoe PesanskyQB · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB70%Mister ClarkPORTAL · PURDUE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJessiah McGrewPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeuce Blades IIPORTAL · WAKE FOREST · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL69%Jaleel DavisOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaheim BuchanonOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJulius PierceOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL60%Keegan DavisDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuaylen HillDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOlasunkonmi AgunloyeDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE52%Dallas PayneTE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlex PerryWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin CayenneTE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB52%Kejon OwensRB · 51% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB46%Johnny Chaney Jr.LB · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJJ Kohl · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATEDJ Alexander · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBDeAndre Boykins · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEWesley Miller · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH ALABAMAVontae Floyd · PORTAL ★3 · DUKE7 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLRiley Wilson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLJamorie Flagg · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATERJ Moss Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH ALABAMAMichael Smarts · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEBarrett Schulz · SIGNEE ★3Malik Penson · SIGNEE ★3Ayden Passley · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBJayden Ford · SIGNEE ★3Justin Compere · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBBrayshawn Littlejohn · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATEDemitris Mincey · SIGNEE ★3De'Andre Arnold · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
CARRIED COMPOSITE
38.043 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
37.550 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
38.347 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB565664061 OF 6 GRADED
RB26267310062 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE4040365421CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL414145017CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL43434733197 OF 19 GRADED
LB3737473894 OF 9 GRADED
DB52523130208 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE35th35
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%39
RECRUITING CLASS#102 · 0/20 BC24
CLASS RANK TREND+7 · 3 CYCLES64
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 17 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
LIBJAMEY CHADWELL4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
66
PACE
6969
PASS RATE
33
EXPLOSIVENESS
2020
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6363
HAVOC
6868
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
FIUWILLIE SIMMONS2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7171
PACE
9696
PASS RATE
7575
EXPLOSIVENESS
5959
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9898
HAVOC
5757
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESFIU OFFENSELIB OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL OFFENSE
NATIONAL
58OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
56
RET
0
NATIONAL
131OF 136
RET
63
FULL DEFENSELIBERTY DEFENSE
FIU QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JJ KOHLQBPORTAL · APP STATE
493RD YR7264★3-22
ZACH MARKERQBTRUE FR
484TH YR——UNR+29 2025
DJ ALEXANDERQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—38★3—
MATT IVALDIQBPORTAL · FORDHAM
301ST YR——UNR—
ZACHARY WATERSQBRET
303RD YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LIB DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 46 PLAYERS45% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
2662%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
27100%0%
SECONDARYDB
4338%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL OFFENSE
NATIONAL
106OF 138
TAL
45
PERF
41
RET
0
DL
130OF 138
DL RET
62
LB
133OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7LIBERTY DEFENSE
FIU OFFENSIVE LINEn=17100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTONIO TRIPP JR.OLRET
673RD YR—76★4+39 2025
JON RODRIGUEZOLRET
492ND YR—36★3—
SPENCER WEBBOLPORTAL · EASTERN MICHIGAN
484TH YR——UNR—
ZAIRE FLOURNOYOLRET
474TH YR—17★3+22 2025
DAVEION HARLEYOLPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
473RD YR—28★3+18 2024
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LIB FRONT-7n=25 · 2 ROOMS23% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NATHAN PIROLLIDLRET
544TH YR67—UNR-29
KAM CULLINSDLRET
542ND YR4570★3—
DERRELL FARRARLBRET
514TH YR919★3-10
MARKUS CLARKDLRET
494TH YR8346★3-12
DILLANO GLAUDLBRET
473RD YR46—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL OFFENSE
NATIONAL
135OF 138
TAL
73
PERF
26
RET
100
DL
130OF 138
DL RET
62
LB
133OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7LIBERTY DEFENSE
FIU RUNNING BACKSn=60% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
STERLING JOSEPHRBRET
521ST YR2565★3+37
DEVONTE LYONSRBRET
502ND YR6668★3-17
ANTHONY CARRIERBRET
422ND YR7978★3-45
JUSTIN COMPERERBTRUE FR
351ST YR—42★3—
JAYDEN FORDRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—47★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LIB FRONT-72 ROOMS · 25 PLAYERS21% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552662%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4527100%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL OFFENSE
NATIONAL
115OF 138
TAL
36
PERF
40
RET
54
DB
116OF 138
DB RET
38
SECONDARYLIBERTY DEFENSE
FIU PASS CATCHERSn=2146% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOJO STONEWRRET
572ND YR6217★3+27
GREG GAINES IIIWRPORTAL · RHODE ISLAND
484TH YR2917★3—
TYSON CARTERWRRET
472ND YR4346★3—
ERIC NELSON JR.WRRET
452ND YR5621★3-8
MAGUIRE ANDERSONWRRET
443RD YR78—UNR+8
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LIB SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM62% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JEREMIAH VESSELSTRUE FR
564TH YR8445★3-25
ASHTON WHITNERSPORTAL · BALL STATE
554TH YR8428★3+8
JAYDEN DAVISSTRUE FR
524TH YR4383★3—
JAMAL MILESCBRET
524TH YR3849★3—
IZAIAH GUYSPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA
514TH YR9140★3-26
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
FIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LIB
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
43.8
44.6
— OFFENSE
48.5
44.8
— DEFENSE
39.1
44.3
SP+ OVERALL
-11.5
-7.1
FPI
-10.8
-4.4
ELO
1392
1728
TALENT
608
633
PRODUCTION
19
26
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+16
+17
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.09
0.06
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
FIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LIB
OFF EFFICIENCY
15
39
DEF EFFICIENCY
74
52
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
45
71
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
79
49
FINISHING DRIVES
3
34
FIELD POSITION
66
19
TURNOVER MARGIN
3
50
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
FIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LIB
PASS RATE
57.1%
41.4%
PACE
23.9s
28.3s
4TH-DOWN GO RATE
54%
29%
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
50.0%
68.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
69.5%
63.3%
PLAYS / GAME
75.3
63.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
1.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = FIU, ORANGE = LIB) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE