SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2026 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›JMU @ USM›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
JAMES MADISON
SOUTHERN MISS
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
THU 20:00 ET|M. M. ROBERTS STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP5|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
59FPI
JMUSBCJAMES MADISON
3-0
27
28
96
8%
23
19
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
118FPI
USMSBCSOUTHERN MISS
1-2
32
27
17
90%
84
31
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
JMU32CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
53
PROE
19
TEMPO
23
EXPLOSIVE53p
53
PROE19p
19
TEMPO23p
23
USM45CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
7
PROE
46
TEMPO
84
EXPLOSIVE7p
7
PROE46p
46
TEMPO84p
84
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
JMURECORD MATCHES
12-1ACTUALvs11.5-1.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+21.5
JAMES MADISON won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 11.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
USMRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.6-5.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+2.4
SOUTHERN MISS won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERJAMES MADISONSOUTHERN MISS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Alonza Barnett IIIPORTAL · UCF · 96% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB92%Jacob ThomasS · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah CulpCB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler BrownPORTAL · IOWA · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE86%Lacota DippreTE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh PhiferTE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick DeGennaroWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB85%Wayne KnightPORTAL · UCLA · 59% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan FullerRB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJobi MalaryRB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL77%Sahir WestPORTAL · UCLA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAiden GobairaPORTAL · UCLA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONXavier HolmesDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB68%Trent HendrickPORTAL · UCLA · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDrew SpinogattiLB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL58%Pat McMurtrieOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCarter SweazieOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRiley RobellOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DBJayon Harvey · PORTAL ★3 · FINDLAYDamier Minkah · PORTAL ★3 · SHEPHERDJavis Mynatt · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS STATE5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEJeremiah Harrison · PORTAL ★3 · EAST TENNESSEE STATEMicah Matthews · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA TECHCorey Scott · PORTAL ★3 · WEST FLORIDA7 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DLErnest Willor Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSINMason Purham · PORTAL ★3 · EMORY & HENRY COLLEGECory Simon · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBJosiah Perry · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLKaedin Massey · PORTAL ★3 · KANSAS STATEDJ Fox · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSIN-RIVER FALLSPARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · JAMES MADISON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
20.58 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
22.619 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
18.911 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB545459142 OF 4 GRADED
RB5656667173 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE4646531927CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL434338018CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL717139531711 OF 17 GRADED
LB6767322584 OF 8 GRADED
DB61614238229 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE27th27
BLUE-CHIP RATIO5%28
RECRUITING CLASS#80 · 0/21 BC41
CLASS RANK TREND+28 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 37 IN / 30 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
USMBLAKE ANDERSONFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2424
PACE
9494
PASS RATE
3939
EXPLOSIVENESS
4343
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5858
HAVOC
6262
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
JMUBILLY NAPIERFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3939
PACE
1818
PASS RATE
4444
EXPLOSIVENESS
6262
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4141
HAVOC
4747
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESJMU OFFENSEUSM OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBJAMES MADISON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
66OF 138
TAL
59
PERF
54
RET
1
NATIONAL
80OF 136
RET
7
FULL DEFENSESOUTHERN MISS DEFENSE
JMU QUARTERBACKSn=499% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JC EVANSQBRET
522ND YR2046★3—
ARRINGTON MAIDENQBPORTAL · MEMPHIS
512ND YR—61★3—
CAMDEN COLEMANQBRET
493RD YR1545★3—
TANNER VIBABULQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—42★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USM DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS87% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
486%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
4741%0%
SECONDARYDB
587%23%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLJAMES MADISON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
102OF 138
TAL
38
PERF
43
RET
0
DL
79OF 138
DL RET
6
LB
74OF 138
LB RET
41
FRONT-7SOUTHERN MISS DEFENSE
JMU OFFENSIVE LINEn=18100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZACH GREENBERGOLRET
554TH YR—45★3+20 2025
EVAN BUSHONGOLRET
522ND YR—26★3—
GRIFFIN HARTOLRET
513RD YR——UNR—
FRANKIE TINILAUOLPORTAL · EAST TENNESSEE STATE
493RD YR—28★3—
JAKOBE CAMPBELLOLRET
492ND YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USM FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS80% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
XAVIER MCIVERDLPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA
514TH YR—45★3—
MATHIS HAYGOODLBRET
503RD YR59—UNR+16
MELVIN SPRIGGSLBPORTAL · AKRON
493RD YR7017★3+12
JEFFERY RUSH JR.DLTRUE FR
472ND YR2228★3—
WILL SMITHDLPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
442ND YR3864★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBJAMES MADISON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
50OF 138
TAL
66
PERF
56
RET
71
DL
79OF 138
DL RET
6
LB
74OF 138
LB RET
41
FRONT-7SOUTHERN MISS DEFENSE
JMU RUNNING BACKSn=729% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JACKSON MCCARTERRBRET
511ST YR—52★3—
GEORGE PETTAWAYRBRET
514TH YR8885★3+14
SETH CROMWELLRBPORTAL · NORTHERN ARIZONA
494TH YR1117★3—
NICK HERMANRBPORTAL · DRAKE
432ND YR528★3—
TRASHON DYERBRET
412ND YR—59★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USM FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS78% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.55486%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454741%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEJAMES MADISON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
88OF 138
TAL
53
PERF
46
RET
19
DB
35OF 138
DB RET
7
SECONDARYSOUTHERN MISS DEFENSE
JMU PASS CATCHERSn=2781% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RYDER POSTTERET
522ND YR——UNR—
BRAEDEN WISLOSKIWRRET
524TH YR6763★3+18
ZA'RON COLLINSWRRET
493RD YR409★3-25
MICHAEL SCOTTWRRET
452ND YR—54★3-10 2025
ARRION CONCEPCIONWRRET
371ST YR—28★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USM SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM93% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MALIK CASWELLSRET
512ND YR—35★3—
ISHMAEL IBRAHEEMCBRET
514TH YR—28★3—
CHAMP LEWISDBPORTAL · TULSA
473RD YR5462★3-26
KOLBY PEAVYDBPORTAL · ALABAMA
463RD YR2017★3—
KOBI ALBERTDBPORTAL · UCONN
463RD YR3917★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
JMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USM
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
46.1
47.9
— OFFENSE
53.1
51.5
— DEFENSE
39.0
44.2
SP+ OVERALL
4.0
-16.2
FPI
3.3
-13.1
ELO
1777
1224
TALENT
588
603
PRODUCTION
50
7
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−5
+31
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.05
0.13
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
JMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USM
OFF EFFICIENCY
74
21
DEF EFFICIENCY
100
50
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
73
82
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
3
62
FINISHING DRIVES
69
38
FIELD POSITION
6
41
TURNOVER MARGIN
56
94
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
JMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USM
PASS RATE
41.8%
51.9%
PACE
29.7s
25.2s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
62.3%
55.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
54.5%
71.9%
PLAYS / GAME
60.7
71.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.3%
4.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = JMU, ORANGE = USM) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE