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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›USA @ UL›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
SOUTH ALABAMA
LOUISIANA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|CAJUN FIELDCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP6|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
101FPI
USASBCSOUTH ALABAMA
1-1
23
38
13
79%
95
16
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
93FPI
ULSBCLOUISIANA
1-1
28
24
7
92%
30
1
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
USA50CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
49
PROE
6
TEMPO
95
EXPLOSIVE49p
49
PROE6p
6
TEMPO95p
95
UL36CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
67
PROE
10
TEMPO
30
EXPLOSIVE67p
67
PROE10p
10
TEMPO30p
30
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
USARECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.0-7.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.9
SOUTH ALABAMA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ULRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.3-6.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-2.9
LOUISIANA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSOUTH ALABAMALOUISIANA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL71%Ed Smith IVPORTAL · TULANE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRJ Moss Jr.PORTAL · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler ThomasPORTAL · KENTUCKY · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB68%Nehemiah ChandlerPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristopher Wallace Jr.S · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWesley MillerPORTAL · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL67%Malachi PreciadoOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAmaury WigginsOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAsher HaleOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE65%Trent ThomasPORTAL · TENNESSEE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevin VoisinWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMiller McCrumbyTE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB60%Blayne MyrickPORTAL · MIAMI (OH) · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarius McKenzieLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDalton HughesPORTAL · TULANE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB51%Kentrel BullockRB · 51% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLAntwon Thomas · SIGNEE ★3Brayden Hurst · SIGNEE ★3Tyler Wiley · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBTomareo Johnson Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Teryn Green · SIGNEE ★3Deon Callins · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
OLCam'Ron Thompson · SIGNEE ★3Artem Korchagin Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Aydan Newell · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEDominic White · SIGNEE ★3Julius Mathis · SIGNEE ★3Khatori Marion · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
LBSeidrion Langston · PORTAL ★3 · UL MONROEZechariah Hall · SIGNEE ★3Tyray Darensburg · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBDonovan Crow · SIGNEE ★3Lavonte Cole · SIGNEE ★3Caleb Wynn · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SOUTH ALABAMA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
33.231 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
33.042 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
33.330 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB35353810051 OF 5 GRADED
RB6060569484 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE4444464122CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL434347020CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL33332717125 OF 12 GRADED
LB2424288194 OF 19 GRADED
DB49492864238 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE23rd23
BLUE-CHIP RATIO2%11
RECRUITING CLASS#77 · 0/26 BC43
CLASS RANK TREND+7 · 3 CYCLES64
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 12 IN / 30 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ULMICHAEL DESORMEAUX5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3737
PACE
2929
PASS RATE
3333
EXPLOSIVENESS
3131
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5151
HAVOC
2020
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
USAMAJOR APPLEWHITE3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1717
PACE
5757
PASS RATE
1717
EXPLOSIVENESS
3030
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8282
HAVOC
3535
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUSA OFFENSEUL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSOUTH ALABAMA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
123OF 138
TAL
38
PERF
35
RET
100
NATIONAL
114OF 136
RET
24
FULL DEFENSELOUISIANA DEFENSE
USA QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JARED HOLLINSQBRET
493RD YR2262★3—
BISHOP DAVENPORTQBRET
484TH YR7738★3+25
TAYLOR JACOBS JR.QBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
AADEN SHAMBURGERQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
JERRY HORNEQBTRUE FR
302ND YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 47 PLAYERS4% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3395%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
2796%0%
SECONDARYDB
3696%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSOUTH ALABAMA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
100OF 138
TAL
47
PERF
43
RET
0
DL
121OF 138
DL RET
95
LB
134OF 138
LB RET
96
FRONT-7LOUISIANA DEFENSE
USA OFFENSIVE LINEn=20100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
REESE OSEI-WUSUOLRET
604TH YR—0★2—
KENTON JERIDOOLRET
584TH YR—45★3+29 2025
JAMAL SILEROLRET
493RD YR——UNR—
ETHAN HUBBARDOLRET
494TH YR—64★3-34 2025
DEVIN WHITEOLRET
452ND YR—52★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UL FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS5% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ASHTON WRIGHTDLRET
542ND YR4519★3—
LESTER JONESLBRET
523RD YR——UNR—
FITZGERALD WEST JR.DLRET
504TH YR8062★3-32
PRINCETON MALBRUELBPORTAL · LSU
494TH YR339★3—
CHASE EDWARDSDERET
493RD YR6360★3-27
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSOUTH ALABAMA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
31OF 138
TAL
56
PERF
60
RET
94
DL
121OF 138
DL RET
95
LB
134OF 138
LB RET
96
FRONT-7LOUISIANA DEFENSE
USA RUNNING BACKSn=86% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PJ MARTINRBRET
594TH YR5935★3+11
TRAE'VON DUNBARRBRET
523RD YR977★3+35
KEENAN PHILLIPSRBRET
483RD YR7263★3-15
CALEB WYNNRBTRUE FR
371ST YR——UNR—
ANTHONY JEFFERYRBTRUE FR
352ND YR—34★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS5% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553395%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.452796%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESOUTH ALABAMA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
96OF 138
TAL
46
PERF
44
RET
41
DB
132OF 138
DB RET
96
SECONDARYLOUISIANA DEFENSE
USA PASS CATCHERSn=2259% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MICAH WOODSWRRET
514TH YR37—★3-46
ROD GIBBSTERET
484TH YR45—UNR-36
BRENDAN JENKINSWRRET
474TH YR4228★3+25
JEREMIAH JONES-THOMASWRRET
462ND YR1730★3—
ANTHONY EAGERWRRET
444TH YR7953★3-6
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UL SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM4% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MAURION ELEAMSRET
584TH YR72—UNR+4
COLLIN JACOBSRET
544TH YR48—UNR—
LAKE BATESSRET
472ND YR51—UNR-29
BRENT GORDON JR.CBRET
472ND YR8540★3-29
KODY JACKSONSRET
453RD YR—47★3+54 2025
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
USA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UL
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
41.0
54.5
— OFFENSE
36.4
56.6
— DEFENSE
45.7
52.3
SP+ OVERALL
-10.3
-6.6
FPI
-8.1
-6.5
ELO
1391
1387
TALENT
573
591
PRODUCTION
16
26
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−10
−4
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.02
0.03
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
USA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UL
OFF EFFICIENCY
44
17
DEF EFFICIENCY
31
8
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
27
30
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
42
75
FINISHING DRIVES
61
49
FIELD POSITION
59
81
TURNOVER MARGIN
43
47
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
USA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UL
PASS RATE
39.1%
43.0%
PACE
23.1s
29.8s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
69.5%
61.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
56.9%
52.6%
PLAYS / GAME
78.0
60.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = USA, ORANGE = UL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE