SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2026 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›MRSH @ GASO›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MARSHALL
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|ALLEN E. PAULSON STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP14|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
117FPI
MRSHSBCMARSHALL
2-1
30
19
25
99%
18
3
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
101FPI
GASOSBCGEORGIA SOUTHERN
1-2
44
45
2
6%
86
18
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MRSH14CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
7
PROE
18
TEMPO
18
EXPLOSIVE7p
7
PROE18p
18
TEMPO18p
18
GASO56CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
16
PROE
65
TEMPO
86
EXPLOSIVE16p
16
PROE65p
65
TEMPO86p
86
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MRSHRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.1-5.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.5
MARSHALL won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
GASORECORD OVERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs4.6-7.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.3
GEORGIA SOUTHERN won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMARSHALLGEORGIA SOUTHERN2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL78%Paul Hutson IIIPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamaal Whyce Jr.PORTAL · BAYLOR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNaquan CrowderPORTAL · MINNESOTA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB75%Antwan Roberts Jr.PORTAL · ARIZONA · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael AllenPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin Williams-ThomasPORTAL · MASSACHUSETTS · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL67%Shunmarkus AdamsOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEric MeeksOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian RichterOL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB58%Jibreel Al-AminLB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKerion MartinLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJayland ParkerLB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB51%Cam SmithS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarvae MyersDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarrell SweetingPORTAL · UAB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE26%Demarcus LaceyWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB6%JacQai LongQB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLKeydel Painter · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA UNIONTerry Nwabuisi-Ezeala · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILTCole Funderburk · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FOREST2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJamarion Wilcox · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYJosiah McLaurin · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLANDTJ Lester · PORTAL ★3 · WEST GEORGIAREFILLED
OLJaquez Joiner · PORTAL ★3 · UCFRobby Martin · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIALogan Greer · PORTAL ★3 · PENNWEST CALIFORNIA3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBAndre Parker · SIGNEE ★3Zeke Gunn · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBBrayden Hall · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL CONNECTICUTTerrente Hinton · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATEJaycee Houston · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEChristian Hamilton · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIAChris Culliver · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINABrennan Chambers · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MARSHALL
CARRIED COMPOSITE
42.961 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
48.973 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
39.547 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB69694110052 OF 5 GRADED
RB3232557044 OF 4 GRADED
WR/TE47471872209 OF 20 GRADED
OL535333402111 OF 21 GRADED
DL505044221710 OF 17 GRADED
LB50505382106 OF 10 GRADED
DB444441362214 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE30th30
BLUE-CHIP RATIO6%31
RECRUITING CLASS#123 · 0/17 BC8
CLASS RANK TREND-20 · 3 CYCLES10
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 27 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
GASOCLAY HELTON5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9494
PACE
8787
PASS RATE
9393
EXPLOSIVENESS
3737
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1818
HAVOC
5555
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MRSHTONY GIBSON2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1313
PACE
8686
PASS RATE
77
EXPLOSIVENESS
55
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
33
HAVOC
4747
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMRSH OFFENSEGASO OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMARSHALL OFFENSE
NATIONAL
18OF 138
TAL
41
PERF
69
RET
100
NATIONAL
132OF 136
RET
25
FULL DEFENSEGEORGIA SOUTHERN DEFENSE
MRSH QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CARLOS DEL RIO-WILSONQBRET
674TH YR7545★3-17
KHALIL WILKINSQBPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
502ND YR3517★3-55
ZION TURNERQBRET
444TH YR709★3-31
KOI FAGANQBRET
351ST YR—62★3—
DYLAN BARBERQBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GASO DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS44% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
2350%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
3244%4%
SECONDARYDB
4962%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMARSHALL OFFENSE
NATIONAL
61OF 138
TAL
33
PERF
53
RET
40
DL
135OF 138
DL RET
50
LB
124OF 138
LB RET
44
FRONT-7GEORGIA SOUTHERN DEFENSE
MRSH OFFENSIVE LINEn=2160% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JALEN SLAPPYOLRET
644TH YR—32★3+21 2025
XAVIER BAUSLEYOLPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
544TH YR—78★3+22 2025
LOGAN GREEROLTRUE FR
493RD YR—17★3—
ROBBY MARTINOLPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
492ND YR—45★3—
ANDREW DUDLEYOLRET
491ST YR—34★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GASO FRONT-7n=35 · 2 ROOMS53% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LATRELL BULLARDDLRET
524TH YR——UNR-42 2025
ANTHONY BYNUMLBPORTAL · MIDDLE TENNESSEE
504TH YR9717★3-30
CALEB MOOREDLRET
493RD YR—67★3-22 2025
BRANDON TYSONLBRET
494TH YR8517★3+19
JACOB HAMMONDSLBRET
494TH YR2823★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMARSHALL OFFENSE
NATIONAL
131OF 138
TAL
55
PERF
32
RET
70
DL
135OF 138
DL RET
50
LB
124OF 138
LB RET
44
FRONT-7GEORGIA SOUTHERN DEFENSE
MRSH RUNNING BACKSn=430% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JUDAH PRICERBRET
492ND YR24—UNR-22
JO'SHON BARBIERBRET
474TH YR5264★3-41
TJ LESTERRBTRUE FR
462ND YR517★3—
ANTHONY QUINN JR.RBRET
441ST YR552★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GASO FRONT-72 ROOMS · 35 PLAYERS53% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552350%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453244%4%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMARSHALL OFFENSE
NATIONAL
81OF 138
TAL
18
PERF
47
RET
72
DB
84OF 138
DB RET
62
SECONDARYGEORGIA SOUTHERN DEFENSE
MRSH PASS CATCHERSn=2028% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ADRIAN NORTONWRRET
594TH YR9732★3+16
TOBY PAYNETERET
554TH YR8815★2-7 2025
OWEN SWEENEYWRPORTAL · VMI
492ND YR——UNR—
XAYVION TURNER-BRADSHAWWRRET
484TH YR382★3+31
CHRIS CULLIVERWRPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
443RD YR5828★3+21
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GASO SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM38% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CARLO THOMPSONDBRET
514TH YR22—UNR—
JAYLEN BENTLEYDBRET
493RD YR—27★3—
CHANCE GAMBLEDBRET
484TH YR859★3-29
CHACE CALICUTDBTRUE FR
471ST YR—90★4—
DEVIN COLLIERDBRET
473RD YR5460★3+57
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MRSH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
GASO
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
39.5
65.1
— OFFENSE
45.4
69.8
— DEFENSE
33.5
60.4
SP+ OVERALL
-11.7
-6.6
FPI
-11.9
-7.8
ELO
1391
1358
TALENT
595
634
PRODUCTION
29
25
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−1
−13
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.06
0.12
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MRSH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
GASO
OFF EFFICIENCY
64
67
DEF EFFICIENCY
74
3
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
5
48
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
5
52
FINISHING DRIVES
77
74
FIELD POSITION
8
74
TURNOVER MARGIN
81
54
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MRSH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
GASO
PASS RATE
43.8%
60.9%
PACE
30.3s
25.1s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
61.6%
47.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
56.6%
79.1%
PLAYS / GAME
59.3
71.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
2.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MRSH, ORANGE = GASO) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE