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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›LT @ TROY›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
LOUISIANA TECH
TROY
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|VETERANS MEMORIAL STADIUM (AL)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP20|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
94FPI
LTSBCLOUISIANA TECH
1-1
10
12
19
64%
11
23
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
104FPI
TROYSBCTROY
2-0
31
10
44
35%
51
28
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
LT41CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
99
PROE
13
TEMPO
11
EXPLOSIVE99p
99
PROE13p
13
TEMPO11p
11
TROY64CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
96
PROE
45
TEMPO
51
EXPLOSIVE96p
96
PROE45p
45
TEMPO51p
51
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
LTRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.3
LOUISIANA TECH won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TROYRECORD OVERSTATES
8-5ACTUALvs6.5-6.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.2
TROY won 8 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERLOUISIANA TECHTROY2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB79%Clay TheveninPORTAL · RUTGERS · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOmiri WigginsPORTAL · MCNEESE · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB75%Jacob FieldsS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJhamal Shelby Jr.PORTAL · NICHOLLS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJakari FosterDB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL58%Jayden MadkinsPORTAL · TULSA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZion NasonDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian DavisPORTAL · SMU · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB48%Mekhi MasonPORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSifa LeotaLB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL47%Landon NelsonOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJonathan DenisOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrett CanisOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE35%Devin GandyWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarlion JacksonPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarques Singleton Jr.WR · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB15%Evan BullockQB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBJaden Miller · PORTAL ★3 · KEISER (FL)Demarcus Belton · SIGNEE ★3Kenny Thomas · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBDemario Bookhart · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINA STATETy Jones · PORTAL ★3 · NORFOLK STATEAhkhari Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSAS5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJoshua Brantley · PORTAL ★3 · TULANEZa'qwaun Nunn · SIGNEE ★3Amari Wilks · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBAyden Combs · SIGNEE ★3Jeremiah Smith · SIGNEE ★3Grayson Hardy · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLTye Hylton · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEPARTIAL
WR/TETalyn Shettron · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEMarcus Calwise Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · EASTERN KENTUCKYWilliam Mayes · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
QBBrady Vodicka · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · LOUISIANA TECH
CARRIED COMPOSITE
43.863 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
56.385 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
37.143 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6464419063 OF 6 GRADED
RB5858452195 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE515152692011 OF 20 GRADED
OL474741551813 OF 18 GRADED
DL232362661410 OF 14 GRADED
LB51514877139 OF 13 GRADED
DB484831492216 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE10th10
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%21
RECRUITING CLASS#99 · 0/20 BC26
CLASS RANK TREND+14 · 3 CYCLES78
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 11 IN / 24 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TROYGERAD PARKER3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3636
PACE
3333
PASS RATE
5454
EXPLOSIVENESS
5757
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6060
HAVOC
6262
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
LTSONNY CUMBIE5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5353
PACE
6161
PASS RATE
5959
EXPLOSIVENESS
6262
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4848
HAVOC
5555
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESLT OFFENSETROY OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBLOUISIANA TECH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
34OF 138
TAL
41
PERF
64
RET
90
NATIONAL
71OF 136
RET
5
FULL DEFENSETROY DEFENSE
LT QUARTERBACKSn=610% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TREY KUKUKQBRET
594TH YR5027★3+12
BLAKE BAKERQBRET
483RD YR6144★3+26
JACKSON BRADLEYQBRET
401ST YR—42★3—
BRADY VODICKAQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—54★3—
MASON WELCHQBRET
343RD YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TROY DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 48 PLAYERS41% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5727%15%
LINEBACKERSLB
6145%8%
SECONDARYDB
4779%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLLOUISIANA TECH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
84OF 138
TAL
41
PERF
47
RET
55
DL
41OF 138
DL RET
27
LB
23OF 138
LB RET
45
FRONT-7TROY DEFENSE
LT OFFENSIVE LINEn=1845% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
WILL HUTCHENSOLRET
503RD YR—31★3—
HAYDEN CHRISTMANOLRET
463RD YR—49★30 2025
AUSTIN ELLISOLRET
512ND YR—20★3—
ANDREW RICHARDOLRET
502ND YR—36★3—
TROY SMITH IIIOLRET
503RD YR—35★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TROY FRONT-7n=26 · 2 ROOMS66% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TY CLEMONSDTPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE
614TH YR6228★3-31
TJ THOMPSONLBRET
524TH YR66—UNR-35
KAM CURRYDTRET
504TH YR80—UNR-37
DOUG NELSONLBTRUE FR
503RD YR18—UNR—
KEYSHAWN CAMPBELLLBRET
494TH YR2426★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBLOUISIANA TECH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
40OF 138
TAL
45
PERF
58
RET
21
DL
41OF 138
DL RET
27
LB
23OF 138
LB RET
45
FRONT-7TROY DEFENSE
LT RUNNING BACKSn=979% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANDREW BURNETTERBRET
604TH YR6328★3-5
DYLONE BROOKSRBRET
521ST YR——UNR—
JADEN MILLERRBPORTAL · KEISER (FL)
523RD YR—45★3—
SERGIO SNIDERRBTRUE FR
502ND YR—57★3—
RAYSHUN HURTRBTRUE FR
491ST YR—57★3—
SHOW ALL 9
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TROY FRONT-72 ROOMS · 26 PLAYERS65% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555727%15%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456145%8%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TELOUISIANA TECH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
67OF 138
TAL
52
PERF
51
RET
69
DB
97OF 138
DB RET
79
SECONDARYTROY DEFENSE
LT PASS CATCHERSn=2031% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TALYN SHETTRONWRPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
513RD YR6264★3+23
ELI FINLEYTERET
484TH YR8753★3+27
LUKE WATKINSWRRET
482ND YR33—UNR—
BRAYDEN BOCKLERTERET
453RD YR21—UNR—
DEDRICK LATULASWRRET
443RD YR4340★3-48
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TROY SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM21% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DONNIE SMITHDBRET
654TH YR71—UNR—
JUSTIN POWESRET
594TH YR98—UNR-27
TAI TERRELLCBTRUE FR
503RD YR14—UNR—
SHEMAR WELCHCBRET
483RD YR3961★3—
JOE LOTTSRET
483RD YR5826★3+9
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
LT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TROY
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
57.0
51.9
— OFFENSE
63.9
47.9
— DEFENSE
50.1
55.9
SP+ OVERALL
-5.3
-7.1
FPI
-6.6
-8.8
ELO
1405
1416
TALENT
543
596
PRODUCTION
27
30
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−1
+25
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.04
0.09
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
LT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TROY
OFF EFFICIENCY
30
14
DEF EFFICIENCY
86
66
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
47
71
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
10
33
FINISHING DRIVES
35
56
FIELD POSITION
48
20
TURNOVER MARGIN
95
50
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
LT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TROY
PASS RATE
45.0%
43.2%
PACE
33.0s
27.3s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
64.8%
65.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
63.2%
61.4%
PLAYS / GAME
54.5
66.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
6.4%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = LT, ORANGE = TROY) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE