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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›LIB @ NMSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
LIBERTY
NEW MEXICO STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 17:00 ET|AGGIE MEMORIAL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP41|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
83FPI
LIBCUSALIBERTY
2-1
43
30
4
38%
41
4
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
122FPI
NMSUCUSANEW MEXICO STATE
1-2
2
8
41
24%
37
4
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
LIB42CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
71
PROE
14
TEMPO
41
EXPLOSIVE71p
71
PROE14p
14
TEMPO41p
41
NMSU72CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
91
PROE
88
TEMPO
37
EXPLOSIVE91p
91
PROE88p
88
TEMPO37p
37
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
LIBRECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.8-6.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.9
LIBERTY won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NMSURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.3-7.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.0
NEW MEXICO STATE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERLIBERTYNEW MEXICO STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB96%Damond HarmonCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian BodnarPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAmarian WilliamsCB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE71%Jacob JenkinsTE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDonte Lee Jr.PORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONReese SmithWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB49%Evan DickensPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONVaughn BluePORTAL · CENTRAL MICHIGAN · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaden WilliamsRB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL46%Bryce DixonDT · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCJ Bazile Jr.DL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDonovan DozierPORTAL · NORTHWESTERN STATE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL29%Harrison HayesOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB26%Joseph CarterLB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB16%Michael MerdingerQB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBAshton McShane · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGED-Icey Hopkins · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA STATEAshton Whitner · PORTAL ★3 · BALL STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEMakai Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · INDIANARefeno Vangates · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINA CENTRALJakobe Dejesus · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBKam Davis · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEKanye Udoh · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA STATECam Wood · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLJohn Custis · PORTAL ★3 · EMORY & HENRY COLLEGEJohn Custis · PORTAL ★3 · EMORY & HENRYXavier Reid · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLAlex Birchmeier · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATEJude Foster · PORTAL ★3 · OLE MISSMalcolm Gaston · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBEllis Alloway · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBDeshawn Purdie · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FORESTJachin Davis · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · LIBERTY
CARRIED COMPOSITE
41.554 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
47.468 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
38.245 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB383828051 OF 5 GRADED
RB47476632115 OF 11 GRADED
WR/TE4646302519CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL565624019CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL26264162165 OF 16 GRADED
LB272728100105 OF 10 GRADED
DB434344382010 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE43rd43
BLUE-CHIP RATIO6%30
RECRUITING CLASS#109 · 0/17 BC19
CLASS RANK TREND-4 · 3 CYCLES42
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 26 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NMSUTONY SANCHEZ3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4646
PACE
7474
PASS RATE
7070
EXPLOSIVENESS
3333
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
77
HAVOC
77
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
LIBJAMEY CHADWELL4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
77
PACE
6666
PASS RATE
44
EXPLOSIVENESS
1818
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6969
HAVOC
5757
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESLIB OFFENSENMSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBLIBERTY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
115OF 138
TAL
28
PERF
38
RET
0
NATIONAL
80OF 136
RET
16
FULL DEFENSENEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE
LIB QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ETHAN VASKOQBRET
524TH YR8628★3-6
JAYLEN HENDERSONQBPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
524TH YR5017★3+8
DESHAWN PURDIEQBPORTAL · WAKE FOREST
433RD YR6928★3+22
JACHIN DAVISQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—54★3—
ETHAN HOUCKQBRET
491ST YR—77★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NMSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 48 PLAYERS27% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4076%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
3283%0%
SECONDARYDB
4468%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLLIBERTY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
49OF 138
TAL
24
PERF
56
RET
0
DL
105OF 138
DL RET
76
LB
124OF 138
LB RET
83
FRONT-7NEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE
LIB OFFENSIVE LINEn=19100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOEP ENGBERSOLRET
883RD YR—0★2+48 2025
AARON FENIMOREOLRET
613RD YR—49★3+30 2025
AUSTIN ANDERSONOLRET
543RD YR—13★2—
D.J. GETHOLRET
503RD YR—28★3-31 2025
ALEX BIRCHMEIEROLPORTAL · PENN STATE
503RD YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NMSU FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS21% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRAD VISLISELDERET
663RD YR67—UNR+9
TORY GETHERSLBRET
644TH YR8328★3+8
JASON GWANDLRET
523RD YR33—UNR—
JEREMIAH SANDIFORDDLPORTAL · TENNESSEE TECH
524TH YR2317★3—
CHANCE BARRONLBRET
523RD YR27—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBLIBERTY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
99OF 138
TAL
66
PERF
47
RET
32
DL
105OF 138
DL RET
76
LB
124OF 138
LB RET
83
FRONT-7NEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE
LIB RUNNING BACKSn=1168% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KANYE UDOHRBPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE
583RD YR—45★3+17 2025
TERRON KELLMANRBPORTAL · WYOMING
544TH YR—46★3+5 2025
JAYLON COLEMANRBRET
542ND YR2882★3+31
PEYTON JONESRBPORTAL · DUKE
423RD YR7072★3+4
KAM DAVISRBPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
402ND YR5764★3-54
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NMSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS21% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554076%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453283%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TELIBERTY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
86OF 138
TAL
30
PERF
46
RET
25
DB
108OF 138
DB RET
68
SECONDARYNEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE
LIB PASS CATCHERSn=1975% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MAKAI JACKSONWRPORTAL · INDIANA
614TH YR9464★3+23
CALEB RYANTERET
524TH YR36—UNR—
JON MONTEIROWRRET
522ND YR——UNR—
ZEKE WIMBUSHTETRUE FR
483RD YR2732★3—
LAKELSEY JOHNSON JR.TEPORTAL · BAYLOR
474TH YR6028★3-17
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NMSU SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM32% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DE'MARCUS PETERSCBPORTAL · TEXAS A&M-KINGSVILLE
504TH YR379★3—
JAVON GILLESPIECBPORTAL · EAST TEXAS A&M
493RD YR2545★3—
RJ CHAPMANSPORTAL · MERRIMACK
494TH YR24—UNR—
LORENZO SMITHSRET
474TH YR619★3-4
DJ CLOYDSRET
454TH YR3437★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
LIB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NMSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
44.6
43.2
— OFFENSE
44.8
47.3
— DEFENSE
44.3
39.1
SP+ OVERALL
-7.1
-15.0
FPI
-4.4
-13.5
ELO
1728
1261
TALENT
633
460
PRODUCTION
36
9
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−5
+7
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.06
0.05
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
LIB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NMSU
OFF EFFICIENCY
62
9
DEF EFFICIENCY
50
47
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
33
58
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
27
74
FINISHING DRIVES
43
14
FIELD POSITION
48
63
TURNOVER MARGIN
9
42
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
LIB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NMSU
PASS RATE
41.4%
54.2%
PACE
28.3s
28.4s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
68.7%
50.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
63.3%
64.9%
PLAYS / GAME
63.7
63.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
1.1%
3.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = LIB, ORANGE = NMSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE