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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›SHSU @ JXST›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
SAM HOUSTON
JACKSONVILLE STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 19:00 ET|AMFIRST STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP18|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
123FPI
SHSUCUSASAM HOUSTON
0-2
15
1
5
58%
51
7
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
106FPI
JXSTCUSAJACKSONVILLE STATE
1-2
33
19
10
50%
31
10
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
SHSU49CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
42
PROE
54
TEMPO
51
EXPLOSIVE42p
42
PROE54p
54
TEMPO51p
51
JXST28CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
47
PROE
5
TEMPO
31
EXPLOSIVE47p
47
PROE5p
5
TEMPO31p
31
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
SHSURECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs1.7-10.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-20.1
SAM HOUSTON won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 1.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
JXSTRECORD MATCHES
8-5ACTUALvs7.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+2.8
JACKSONVILLE STATE won 8 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSAM HOUSTONJACKSONVILLE STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL95%Rhett LarsonOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKolt DieterichOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLuke EckardtOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB68%Emon AllenDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlonzo Edwards Jr.DB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCJ BrownDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB67%Hunter WatsonQB · 48% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMabrey MettauerQB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB64%Antavious FishLB · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCJ JohnsonLB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaMair DiazPORTAL · TEMPLE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE49%Malik PhillipsWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin SmithTE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQua'Vez HumphreysPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL43%Christopher Eaton Jr.DE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZeiqui LawtonPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuardale PattDL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB28%Elijah GreenRB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLDenell Nix Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATEJosiah Chenault · PORTAL ★3 · KENNESAW STATEElijah Collins · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN CAROLINA2 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DBIshmel Atkins · PORTAL ★3 · ELONWilliam Davis · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIACJ June · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
LBElijah Groves · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATEStacy Bey · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONABrian Bates · PORTAL ★3 · DELAWARE STATE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEKyan Berry-Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSINMax Whisner · PORTAL ★3 · AKRONJack Merryman · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLJayden Fry · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGEJarra Anderson · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONAJustin Terrell · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBKaden Winkfield · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SAM HOUSTON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
37.142 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
31.035 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
40.451 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB37376610051 OF 5 GRADED
RB44441710072 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE3939365321CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL303023017CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL40405156158 OF 15 GRADED
LB35354040126 OF 12 GRADED
DB393937582210 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE15th15
BLUE-CHIP RATIO2%11
RECRUITING CLASS#126 · 0/16 BC6
CLASS RANK TREND-2 · 3 CYCLES46
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 20 IN / 15 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
JXSTCHARLES KELLY2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
33
PACE
7676
PASS RATE
33
EXPLOSIVENESS
4646
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5858
HAVOC
7272
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SHSUPHIL LONGO2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6565
PACE
1919
PASS RATE
8888
EXPLOSIVENESS
4747
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8383
HAVOC
1515
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSHSU OFFENSEJXST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSAM HOUSTON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
119OF 138
TAL
66
PERF
37
RET
100
NATIONAL
108OF 136
RET
18
FULL DEFENSEJACKSONVILLE STATE DEFENSE
SHSU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LANDYN LOCKEQBRET
432ND YR5766★3-46
BRETT HOLLOWAYQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—27★3—
DJ BAILEYQBRET
443RD YR—23★3—
MASON HOLTZCLAWQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—34★3—
SHAAN PATELQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JXST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 60 PLAYERS38% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5366%7%
LINEBACKERSLB
4289%6%
SECONDARYDB
5451%7%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSAM HOUSTON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
133OF 138
TAL
23
PERF
30
RET
0
DL
54OF 138
DL RET
66
LB
92OF 138
LB RET
89
FRONT-7JACKSONVILLE STATE DEFENSE
SHSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=17100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOSIAH CHENAULTOLPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE
534TH YR—28★3+18 2025
ISAAC SOHNOLRET
523RD YR—9★3—
CAM TODDOLRET
504TH YR—0★2—
DENELL NIX JR.OLPORTAL · APP STATE
402ND YR—28★3-48 2025
BROCK STUKESOLPORTAL · NC STATE
374TH YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JXST FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS25% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAWAUN CAMPBELLDLRET
663RD YR88—UNR-15
MAC SANDERSLBRET
642ND YR7945★3+5
WALKER O'STEENLBRET
544TH YR76—UNR-37
CHRISTOPHER JOHNSONDLRET
501ST YR3960★3—
ANDREW RUMPHDLPORTAL · UCF
503RD YR2572★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSAM HOUSTON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
109OF 138
TAL
17
PERF
44
RET
100
DL
54OF 138
DL RET
66
LB
92OF 138
LB RET
89
FRONT-7JACKSONVILLE STATE DEFENSE
SHSU RUNNING BACKSn=70% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LANDAN BROWNRBRET
564TH YR6335★3+4
JERRIAN PARKER JR.RBRET
463RD YR—42★3—
ALTON MCCASKILLRBRET
434TH YR719★3-20
KADEN WINKFIELDRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—38★3—
MJ DOWDYRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—34★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JXST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS23% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555366%7%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454289%6%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESAM HOUSTON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
116OF 138
TAL
36
PERF
39
RET
53
DB
54OF 138
DB RET
51
SECONDARYJACKSONVILLE STATE DEFENSE
SHSU PASS CATCHERSn=2147% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MAX WHISNERTEPORTAL · AKRON
494TH YR1317★3—
MATT SMITHTETRUE FR
484TH YR—41★3—
KYAN BERRY-JOHNSONWRPORTAL · WISCONSIN
483RD YR1628★3—
CHRIS REEDWRRET
484TH YR6959★3+17
GRADY O'NEILLWRRET
444TH YR731★2-9
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JXST SECONDARYn=27 · 1 ROOM49% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARC WOODSSRET
582ND YR5641★3+12
TRE'QUON FEGANSCBRET
534TH YR8545★3+13
JQ BROOKSCBRET
521ST YR3762★3—
JAHEIM JENKINSCBRET
514TH YR699★3-18
CALEB NIXSRET
514TH YR851★2+49
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SHSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
JXST
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
37.8
53.9
— OFFENSE
30.5
56.8
— DEFENSE
45.2
50.9
SP+ OVERALL
-21.1
-7.0
FPI
-14.6
-9.1
ELO
1161
1426
TALENT
554
603
PRODUCTION
3
31
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+15
+14
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.02
0.09
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
SHSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
JXST
OFF EFFICIENCY
8
66
DEF EFFICIENCY
5
43
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
59
58
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
42
28
FINISHING DRIVES
8
60
FIELD POSITION
92
59
TURNOVER MARGIN
57
70
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SHSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
JXST
PASS RATE
65.9%
45.6%
PACE
27.3s
29.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
40.5%
60.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
79.1%
60.9%
PLAYS / GAME
66.0
60.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
2.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SHSU, ORANGE = JXST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE