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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›NMSU @ MOST›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NEW MEXICO STATE
MISSOURI STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 15:00 ET|PLASTER SPORTS COMPLEXCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP12|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
122FPI
NMSUCUSANEW MEXICO STATE
1-2
2
8
41
24%
37
11
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
121FPI
MOSTCUSAMISSOURI STATE
1-2
14
33
11
31%
20
29
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
NMSU72CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
91
PROE
88
TEMPO
37
EXPLOSIVE91p
91
PROE88p
88
TEMPO37p
37
MOST52CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
52
PROE
84
TEMPO
20
EXPLOSIVE52p
52
PROE84p
84
TEMPO20p
20
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
NMSURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.3-7.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.0
NEW MEXICO STATE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MOSTRECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs5.2-6.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-2.9
MISSOURI STATE won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNEW MEXICO STATEMISSOURI STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL83%Malik WilliamsOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBJ ToloOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONArmando NievesOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB79%Logan FifeQB · 78% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE71%Gavin HarrisPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDonovan FaupelPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPJ Johnson IIIWR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL57%Jamall Thompson Jr.DE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTa'Avili TuitamaPORTAL · UTAH STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEzra ChristensenDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB47%Naeten MitchellPORTAL · COLORADO · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZedekiah Rodriguez-BrownCB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONStilton McKelveyPORTAL · BAYLOR · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB46%Kadarius CallowayRB · 43% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB28%Quincy DavisPORTAL · KANSAS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler MartinezPORTAL · COLORADO · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLArmond Owens · PORTAL ★3 · GRAMBLINGTyler Keinath · PORTAL ★3 · BOISE STATEJames Williams · PORTAL ★3 · UTEP2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
WR/TECarson Su'esu'e · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATELyndon Ravare · PORTAL ★3 · KENNESAW STATEDevin Ellison · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON STATE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJordan-Lebron Downey · PORTAL ★3 · LIVINGSTONEVic Shaw · PORTAL ★3 · UTSAKaian Roberts-Day · PORTAL ★3 · UTSA2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJavon Gillespie · PORTAL ★3 · EAST TEXAS A&MTayden Barnes · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATIAmaurey Brooks · PORTAL ★3 · FORDHAM2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJames Jones · PORTAL ★3 · DELAWARE STATETJ Washington Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · IOWAXavier Rucker · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBJaylyn Manning · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NEW MEXICO STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
43.964 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
29.931 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
52.479 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB292927452 OF 5 GRADED
RB3838483785 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE444453522210 OF 22 GRADED
OL34343025177 OF 17 GRADED
DL404028761912 OF 19 GRADED
LB3232308396 OF 9 GRADED
DB444418682013 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE2nd2
BLUE-CHIP RATIO5%27
RECRUITING CLASS#136 · 0/6 BC0
CLASS RANK TREND-2 · 3 CYCLES46
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 25 IN / 24 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MOSTCASEY WOODSFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NMSUTONY SANCHEZ3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4646
PACE
7474
PASS RATE
7070
EXPLOSIVENESS
3333
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
77
HAVOC
77
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNMSU OFFENSEMOST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNEW MEXICO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
134OF 138
TAL
27
PERF
29
RET
4
NATIONAL
129OF 136
RET
17
FULL DEFENSEMISSOURI STATE DEFENSE
NMSU QUARTERBACKSn=596% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TREY HEDDENQBTRUE FR
533RD YR4227★3+20
ADAM DAMANTEQBRET
513RD YR4713★2—
PARKER STOFAQBTRUE FR
302ND YR——UNR—
KALANI MCLEODQBTRUE FR
302ND YR——UNR—
TREY ARNOLDQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MOST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS50% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4033%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
4385%0%
SECONDARYDB
4747%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNEW MEXICO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
123OF 138
TAL
30
PERF
34
RET
25
DL
107OF 138
DL RET
33
LB
87OF 138
LB RET
85
FRONT-7MISSOURI STATE DEFENSE
NMSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1775% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAMES WILLIAMSOLPORTAL · UTEP
753RD YR7728★3+41
TYLER KEINATHOLPORTAL · BOISE STATE
604TH YR7445★3+32
MA'KYI LEEOLRET
534TH YR6217★3-11
CALEB PYFROMOLTRUE FR
522ND YR2274★3—
ARMOND OWENSOLPORTAL · GRAMBLING
493RD YR2645★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MOST FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS46% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CADEN WIESTDERET
643RD YR5027★3—
TIM BRANTLEY JR.DLRET
534TH YR64—UNR-19
BLESSING IGBINEDIONDETRUE FR
523RD YR9—UNR—
AUSTIN YELDERLBRET
523RD YR30—UNR—
JARED LLOYDLBRET
514TH YR74—UNR+17
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNEW MEXICO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
122OF 138
TAL
48
PERF
38
RET
37
DL
107OF 138
DL RET
33
LB
87OF 138
LB RET
85
FRONT-7MISSOURI STATE DEFENSE
NMSU RUNNING BACKSn=863% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAMES JONESRBPORTAL · DELAWARE STATE
474TH YR6664★3-28
ISAIAH RUDISONRBRET
464TH YR47—UNR-33
TJ WASHINGTON JR.RBPORTAL · IOWA
453RD YR5145★3-38
DIJON STANLEYRBRET
434TH YR6728★3+9
JALEN BROWNRBRET
403RD YR99★2—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MOST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS44% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554033%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454385%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENEW MEXICO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
97OF 138
TAL
53
PERF
44
RET
52
DB
98OF 138
DB RET
47
SECONDARYMISSOURI STATE DEFENSE
NMSU PASS CATCHERSn=2248% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TK KINGWRRET
624TH YR8463★3+26
AJ WILLIAMS IIIWRTRUE FR
523RD YR27—UNR—
CARSON SU'ESU'ETEPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
501ST YR1745★3—
JOSIAH THOMASTEPORTAL · WESTERN CAROLINA
482ND YR19—UNR—
BRODIE MALONE-BRADFORDWRRET
472ND YR6571★3+29
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MOST SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM53% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOEL BOAMAHCBTRUE FR
573RD YR6127★3+50
ANTHONY MATTISONSTRUE FR
523RD YR14—UNR—
GIONNI MCBRIDECBRET
491ST YR242★3—
MALIK GANAWAYCBTRUE FR
494TH YR11—UNR—
JOEL KPASSOUCBPORTAL · DUQUESNE
494TH YR1728★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NMSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MOST
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
43.2
34.3
— OFFENSE
47.3
35.4
— DEFENSE
39.1
33.2
SP+ OVERALL
-15.0
-16.4
FPI
-13.5
-13.4
ELO
1261
1281
TALENT
460
550
PRODUCTION
9
9
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+7
+17
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.05
0.06
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NMSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MOST
OFF EFFICIENCY
9
19
DEF EFFICIENCY
47
36
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
58
99
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
74
22
FINISHING DRIVES
14
65
FIELD POSITION
63
41
TURNOVER MARGIN
42
25
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NMSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MOST
PASS RATE
54.2%
39.4%
PACE
28.4s
30.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
50.4%
67.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
64.9%
58.0%
PLAYS / GAME
63.3
60.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.7%
5.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NMSU, ORANGE = MOST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE