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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›MTSU @ LIB›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
LIBERTY
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 15:30 ET|WILLIAMS STADIUM (VA)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP22|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
126FPI
MTSUCUSAMIDDLE TENNESSEE
1-1
21
14
4
33%
19
4
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
108FPI
LIBCUSALIBERTY
1-1
43
30
4
38%
40
10
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MTSU51CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
36
PROE
98
TEMPO
19
EXPLOSIVE36p
36
PROE98p
98
TEMPO19p
19
LIB35CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
50
PROE
14
TEMPO
40
EXPLOSIVE50p
50
PROE14p
14
TEMPO40p
40
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MTSURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.8-8.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-8.5
MIDDLE TENNESSEE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
LIBRECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.8-6.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.9
LIBERTY won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMIDDLE TENNESSEELIBERTY2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB86%Jekail MiddlebrookPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 67% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRickey Hunt Jr.PORTAL · FAIRMONT STATE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL84%Mateo GuevaraOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoseph HabinowskiOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob OttsOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB71%Nicholas VattiatoQB · 71% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL71%Shakai WoodsPORTAL · ARKANSAS STATE · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDamonte SmithNT · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB70%Parker HughesDRAFTED · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnthony BynumPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon BucknerLB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE63%Hunter TiptonPORTAL · MEMPHIS · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNahzae CoxPORTAL · KANSAS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMyles ButlerWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB58%Abdul MuhammadCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDe'Arre McDonaldCB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJuwon GastonS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBAntonio Martin Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · KANSAS STATERobert Lathon Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLBrennan Smith · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEReese Tripp · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTAChris Moreno · PORTAL ★3 · MONMOUTH3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBRocco Williams · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLJustin Bodford · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURIJonas Jimerson · SIGNEE ★3Jayden Arenas-Michel · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBAshton Taylor · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSON STATEShane Rochelle · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEMarkus Allen · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEHogan Wasson · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL MISSOURIBryson Maddox · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBRicky Lee III · PORTAL ★3 · SACRAMENTO STATEJames Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · USCDyson McCutcheon · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MIDDLE TENNESSEE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
31.927 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
27.926 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
34.636 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB56565210061 OF 6 GRADED
RB5151461084 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE4141253022CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL313132015CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL54543177135 OF 13 GRADED
LB38385961167 OF 16 GRADED
DB303037422210 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE21st21
BLUE-CHIP RATIO7%33
RECRUITING CLASS#119 · 0/14 BC11
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 19 IN / 18 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
LIBJAMEY CHADWELL4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
77
PACE
6666
PASS RATE
44
EXPLOSIVENESS
1818
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6969
HAVOC
5757
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MTSUDEREK MASON3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9696
PACE
3737
PASS RATE
9898
EXPLOSIVENESS
4545
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6666
HAVOC
2323
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMTSU OFFENSELIB OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMIDDLE TENNESSEE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
60OF 138
TAL
52
PERF
56
RET
100
NATIONAL
128OF 136
RET
22
FULL DEFENSELIBERTY DEFENSE
MTSU QUARTERBACKSn=60% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ROMAN GAGLIANOQBRET
542ND YR5552★3-5
PETER COSTELLIQBTRUE FR
454TH YR—90★3—
STANLEY ANDERSON-LOFTONQBRET
411ST YR—41★3—
ROCCO WILLIAMSQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—53★3—
MASON MALLORYQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LIB DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 46 PLAYERS45% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
2662%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
27100%0%
SECONDARYDB
4338%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMIDDLE TENNESSEE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
130OF 138
TAL
32
PERF
31
RET
0
DL
130OF 138
DL RET
62
LB
133OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7LIBERTY DEFENSE
MTSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=15100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DIEGO BLATTLEROLRET
504TH YR——UNR—
BRENNAN SMITHOLPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
474TH YR—45★3+28 2025
OTTO JANSE VAN RENSBURGOLRET
452ND YR—37★3+13 2025
ALEX GALEOLRET
432ND YR—28★3-22 2025
REESE TRIPPOLPORTAL · MINNESOTA
383RD YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LIB FRONT-7n=26 · 2 ROOMS23% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NATHAN PIROLLIDLRET
543RD YR62—UNR-28
KAM CULLINSDLRET
542ND YR—70★3—
DERRELL FARRARLBRET
513RD YR899★3-12
MARKUS CLARKDLRET
494TH YR—46★3-10 2025
DILLANO GLAUDLBRET
472ND YR40—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMIDDLE TENNESSEE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
70OF 138
TAL
46
PERF
51
RET
10
DL
130OF 138
DL RET
62
LB
133OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7LIBERTY DEFENSE
MTSU RUNNING BACKSn=890% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTONIO MARTINRBTRUE FR
534TH YR3345★3+29
AUSTIN CLEMONSRBRET
502ND YR—42★3—
DJ TAYLORRBRET
502ND YR3964★3+33
TERRENCE BROWNRBTRUE FR
404TH YR——UNR—
BROOKLEN DAVISRBRET
351ST YR—50★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LIB FRONT-72 ROOMS · 26 PLAYERS21% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552662%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4527100%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMIDDLE TENNESSEE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
110OF 138
TAL
25
PERF
41
RET
30
DB
116OF 138
DB RET
38
SECONDARYLIBERTY DEFENSE
MTSU PASS CATCHERSn=2270% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARKUS ALLENWRPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
594TH YR859★3+5
CAM'RON LACYWRRET
513RD YR8435★3+13
TAYVION GALLOWAYTERET
442ND YR5245★3-49
AJ JONESWRRET
434TH YR789★3-51
HOGAN WASSONWRPORTAL · CENTRAL MISSOURI
374TH YR—9★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LIB SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM62% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JEREMIAH VESSELSTRUE FR
563RD YR8145★3-25
ASHTON WHITNERSPORTAL · BALL STATE
551ST YR8228★3+5
JAYDEN DAVISSTRUE FR
523RD YR3782★3—
ASHTON MCSHANECBPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE
482ND YR7045★3-31
ELIJAH HOPKINSCBRET
484TH YR4744★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MTSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LIB
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
57.3
44.6
— OFFENSE
71.7
44.8
— DEFENSE
42.9
44.3
SP+ OVERALL
-21.3
-7.1
FPI
-15.4
-9.2
ELO
1277
1697
TALENT
572
633
PRODUCTION
2
36
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+12
−5
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.07
0.06
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MTSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LIB
OFF EFFICIENCY
49
62
DEF EFFICIENCY
23
50
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
42
33
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
36
27
FINISHING DRIVES
15
43
FIELD POSITION
69
48
TURNOVER MARGIN
59
9
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MTSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LIB
PASS RATE
63.5%
42.2%
PACE
31.3s
28.1s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
44.3%
75.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
80.6%
75.0%
PLAYS / GAME
57.5
64.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MTSU, ORANGE = LIB) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE