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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 12›MTSU @ SHSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BALL @ OHIO0
M-OH @ KENT0
EMU @ WMU0
CMU @ BUF0
AKR @ MASS0
RICE @ TEM0
ISU @ UCF0
BGSU @ TOL0
CLEM @ DUKE0
UTEP @ AF0
ORE @ MSU0
CLT @ TLSA0
UTAH @ TCU0
GASO @ TROY0
OKST @ ASU0
VT @ MIA0
SYR @ BC0
ARIZ @ KSU0
GAST @ MRSH0
UNC @ UVA0
HAW @ NEV0
ULM @ APP0
BYU @ KU0
WIS @ PUR0
PITT @ LOU0
WAKE @ GT0
COLO @ CIN0
TA&M @ OU0
VAN @ FLA0
UTSA @ UAB0
RUTG @ PSU0
STAN @ CAL0
UCLA @ MICH0
IOWA @ ILL0
MD @ USC0
OSU @ NEB0
USA @ USM0
UNT @ TULN0
NCSU @ FSU0
USF @ FAU0
IU @ WASH0
ARST @ LT0
TTU @ BAY0
HOU @ WVU0
ARK @ TEX0
UGA @ SC0
CCU @ UL0
UK @ MIZ0
NU @ MINN0
LSU @ TENN0
MEM @ NAVY0
ECU @ ARMY0
WKU @ LIB0
MTSU @ SHSU0
MOST @ JXST0
DEL @ NMSU0
FIU @ KENN0
ODU @ CONN0
NIU @ NDSU0
WSU @ TXST0
UNLV @ SJSU0
CSU @ FRES0
SMU @ ND0
UNM @ WYO0
SDSU @ BOIS0
USU @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
SAM HOUSTON
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 14:00 ET|ELLIOTT T. BOWERS STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP6|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
126FPI
MTSUCUSAMIDDLE TENNESSEE
1-1
21
14
4
33%
19
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
123FPI
SHSUCUSASAM HOUSTON
0-2
15
1
5
58%
51
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MTSU51CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
36
PROE
98
TEMPO
19
EXPLOSIVE36p
36
PROE98p
98
TEMPO19p
19
SHSU49CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
42
PROE
54
TEMPO
51
EXPLOSIVE42p
42
PROE54p
54
TEMPO51p
51
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MTSURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.8-8.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-8.5
MIDDLE TENNESSEE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
SHSURECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs1.7-10.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-20.1
SAM HOUSTON won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 1.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMIDDLE TENNESSEESAM HOUSTON2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB86%Jekail MiddlebrookPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 67% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRickey Hunt Jr.PORTAL · FAIRMONT STATE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL84%Mateo GuevaraOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoseph HabinowskiOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob OttsOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB71%Nicholas VattiatoQB · 71% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL71%Shakai WoodsPORTAL · ARKANSAS STATE · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDamonte SmithNT · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB70%Parker HughesDRAFTED · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnthony BynumPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon BucknerLB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE63%Hunter TiptonPORTAL · MEMPHIS · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNahzae CoxPORTAL · KANSAS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMyles ButlerWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB58%Abdul MuhammadCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDe'Arre McDonaldCB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJuwon GastonS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBAntonio Martin Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · KANSAS STATERobert Lathon Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLBrennan Smith · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEReese Tripp · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTAChris Moreno · PORTAL ★3 · MONMOUTH3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBRocco Williams · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLJustin Bodford · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURIJonas Jimerson · SIGNEE ★3Jayden Arenas-Michel · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBAshton Taylor · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSON STATEShane Rochelle · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEMarkus Allen · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEHogan Wasson · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL MISSOURIBryson Maddox · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBRicky Lee III · PORTAL ★3 · SACRAMENTO STATEJames Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · USCDyson McCutcheon · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MIDDLE TENNESSEE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
31.927 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
27.926 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
34.636 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB56565210061 OF 6 GRADED
RB5151461084 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE4141253022CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL313132015CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL54543177135 OF 13 GRADED
LB38385961167 OF 16 GRADED
DB303037422210 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE21st21
BLUE-CHIP RATIO7%33
RECRUITING CLASS#119 · 0/14 BC11
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 19 IN / 18 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
SHSUPHIL LONGO2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6565
PACE
1919
PASS RATE
8888
EXPLOSIVENESS
4747
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8383
HAVOC
1515
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MTSUDEREK MASON3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9696
PACE
3737
PASS RATE
9898
EXPLOSIVENESS
4545
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6666
HAVOC
2323
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMTSU OFFENSESHSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMIDDLE TENNESSEE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
60OF 138
TAL
52
PERF
56
RET
100
NATIONAL
131OF 136
RET
17
FULL DEFENSESAM HOUSTON DEFENSE
MTSU QUARTERBACKSn=60% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ROMAN GAGLIANOQBRET
542ND YR5552★3-5
PETER COSTELLIQBTRUE FR
454TH YR—90★3—
STANLEY ANDERSON-LOFTONQBRET
411ST YR—41★3—
ROCCO WILLIAMSQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—53★3—
MASON MALLORYQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SHSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS45% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4056%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
3540%8%
SECONDARYDB
3958%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMIDDLE TENNESSEE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
130OF 138
TAL
32
PERF
31
RET
0
DL
105OF 138
DL RET
56
LB
115OF 138
LB RET
40
FRONT-7SAM HOUSTON DEFENSE
MTSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=15100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DIEGO BLATTLEROLRET
504TH YR——UNR—
BRENNAN SMITHOLPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
474TH YR—45★3+28 2025
OTTO JANSE VAN RENSBURGOLRET
452ND YR—37★3+13 2025
ALEX GALEOLRET
432ND YR—28★3-22 2025
REESE TRIPPOLPORTAL · MINNESOTA
383RD YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SHSU FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS50% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DYLAN FRAZIERDTRET
704TH YR749★3+9
JARRA ANDERSONDTPORTAL · ARIZONA
554TH YR5345★3+17
JOSH ALEXANDER-FELTONDETRUE FR
523RD YR3374★3—
DEAN FORDLBRET
503RD YR6425★3-34
JUSTIN TERRELLDTPORTAL · NC STATE
493RD YR2845★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMIDDLE TENNESSEE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
70OF 138
TAL
46
PERF
51
RET
10
DL
105OF 138
DL RET
56
LB
115OF 138
LB RET
40
FRONT-7SAM HOUSTON DEFENSE
MTSU RUNNING BACKSn=890% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTONIO MARTINRBTRUE FR
534TH YR3345★3+29
AUSTIN CLEMONSRBRET
502ND YR—42★3—
DJ TAYLORRBRET
502ND YR3964★3+33
TERRENCE BROWNRBTRUE FR
404TH YR——UNR—
BROOKLEN DAVISRBRET
351ST YR—50★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SHSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS51% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554056%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453540%8%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMIDDLE TENNESSEE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
110OF 138
TAL
25
PERF
41
RET
30
DB
127OF 138
DB RET
58
SECONDARYSAM HOUSTON DEFENSE
MTSU PASS CATCHERSn=2270% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARKUS ALLENWRPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
594TH YR859★3+5
CAM'RON LACYWRRET
513RD YR8435★3+13
TAYVION GALLOWAYTERET
442ND YR5245★3-49
AJ JONESWRRET
434TH YR789★3-51
HOGAN WASSONWRPORTAL · CENTRAL MISSOURI
374TH YR—9★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SHSU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM42% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RAILYN ADAMSSRET
523RD YR2938★3—
JALYN STANFORDSRET
524TH YR3954★3—
LYRIC SMITHSRET
523RD YR31—UNR—
CAESAR MAGEECBTRUE FR
464TH YR172★3—
ISHMEL ATKINSCBPORTAL · ELON
464TH YR1745★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MTSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SHSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
57.3
37.8
— OFFENSE
71.7
30.5
— DEFENSE
42.9
45.2
SP+ OVERALL
-21.3
-21.1
FPI
-15.4
-14.6
ELO
1277
1161
TALENT
572
554
PRODUCTION
2
3
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+12
+15
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.07
0.02
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MTSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SHSU
OFF EFFICIENCY
49
8
DEF EFFICIENCY
23
5
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
42
59
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
36
42
FINISHING DRIVES
15
8
FIELD POSITION
69
92
TURNOVER MARGIN
59
57
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MTSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SHSU
PASS RATE
63.5%
65.9%
PACE
31.3s
27.3s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
44.3%
40.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
80.6%
79.1%
PLAYS / GAME
57.5
66.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MTSU, ORANGE = SHSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE