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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 13›APP @ USA›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
M-OH @ WMU0
KENT @ EMU0
TCU @ TTU0
TULN @ USF0
TEM @ MEM0
FAU @ ECU0
NEB @ IOWA0
MSST @ MISS0
TOL @ OHIO0
BUF @ AKR0
APP @ USA0
NDSU @ SJSU0
FLA @ FSU0
MINN @ WIS0
TEX @ TA&M0
WVU @ UTAH0
USC @ UCLA0
TENN @ VAN0
CONN @ WYO0
AUB @ ALA0
CCU @ JMU0
NAVY @ CLT0
NCSU @ UNC0
DUKE @ WAKE0
TLSA @ UTSA0
BAY @ HOU0
ARMY @ RICE0
GT @ UGA0
LSU @ ARK0
LOU @ UK0
LT @ GASO0
PUR @ IU0
SMU @ STAN0
UCF @ COLO0
MRSH @ ULM0
PSU @ MD0
KU @ OKST0
WASH @ ORE0
PITT @ CAL0
OU @ MIZ0
USM @ ODU0
UVA @ VT0
SC @ CLEM0
ND @ SYR0
ASU @ ARIZ0
UAB @ UNT0
BC @ MIA0
KSU @ ISU0
UL @ GAST0
CIN @ BYU0
MSU @ RUTG0
UTEP @ NIU0
ILL @ NU0
CMU @ BALL0
MICH @ OSU0
MASS @ BGSU0
KENN @ WKU0
LIB @ MOST0
SHSU @ FIU0
NMSU @ MTSU0
TROY @ ARST0
JXST @ DEL0
AF @ UNM0
NEV @ UNLV0
SAC @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
APP STATE
SOUTH ALABAMA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
FRI 15:00 ET|HANCOCK WHITNEY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP16|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
87FPI
APPSBCAPP STATE
3-0
39
21
15
38%
88
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
99FPI
USASBCSOUTH ALABAMA
2-1
23
38
13
79%
94
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
APP83CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
73
PROE
90
TEMPO
88
EXPLOSIVE73p
73
PROE90p
90
TEMPO88p
88
USA55CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
66
PROE
6
TEMPO
94
EXPLOSIVE66p
66
PROE6p
6
TEMPO94p
94
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
APPRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.9-7.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.5
APP STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
USARECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.0-7.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.9
SOUTH ALABAMA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERAPP STATESOUTH ALABAMA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%AJ SwannQB · 43% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJJ KohlPORTAL · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNoah GillonQB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB91%Ethan JohnsonDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEmory FloydDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZyeir GamblePORTAL · EAST CAROLINA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE83%David LarkinsTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDalton StromanWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden BarnesPORTAL · CHARLOTTE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL70%Rondo PorterPORTAL · RUTGERS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKevin Abrams-VerwayneDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDylan ManuelPORTAL · COLORADO · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL68%Will FlowersOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShamarr JacksonOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJayden RamseyOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB63%Kyle ArnholtLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrayshawn LittlejohnPORTAL · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaelin WillisLB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB56%Rashod DubinionRB · 52% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBMalachi Singleton · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUEBronzden Chaffin · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBDevin Henderson · PORTAL ★3 · LIBERTYCary Grant · PORTAL ★3 · CHARLOTTEKaleb Purdy · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEE TECH3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEJamel Howse · SIGNEE ★3Kamauri Austin · SIGNEE ★3Kabran Paul · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLKi'Shawn Harvey · PORTAL ★3 · EAST TENNESSEE STATEJordan Harris · SIGNEE ★4Manny Lewis · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
OLDevon Manuel · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDAScottland Dover · SIGNEE ★3Caden Muskus · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBBryant Junius · SIGNEE ★3Michael McClenton · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBJ'Marion Burnette · PORTAL ★3 · HOUSTONREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · APP STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
25.715 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
33.342 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
21.213 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB545443053 OF 5 GRADED
RB4545544475 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE505019112214 OF 22 GRADED
OL535336402010 OF 20 GRADED
DL505027511814 OF 18 GRADED
LB5252343698 OF 9 GRADED
DB474738192017 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE39th39
BLUE-CHIP RATIO10%45
RECRUITING CLASS#59 · 1/25 BC56
CLASS RANK TREND+35 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 38 IN / 41 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
USAMAJOR APPLEWHITE3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1717
PACE
5757
PASS RATE
1717
EXPLOSIVENESS
3030
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8282
HAVOC
3535
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
APPDOWELL LOGGAINS2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9393
PACE
8787
PASS RATE
9595
EXPLOSIVENESS
1818
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7575
HAVOC
6262
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESAPP OFFENSEUSA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBAPP STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
64OF 138
TAL
43
PERF
54
RET
0
NATIONAL
124OF 136
RET
9
FULL DEFENSESOUTH ALABAMA DEFENSE
APP QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MALACHI SINGLETONQBPORTAL · PURDUE
504TH YR4645★3+30
HENRY HASSELBECKQBPORTAL · UCLA
473RD YR—60★3—
TOMMY ULATOWSKIQBPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE
414TH YR7017★3-24 2023
BRONZDEN CHAFFINQBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
GREGORY FEEQBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS59% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3317%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
248%0%
SECONDARYDB
4964%4%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLAPP STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
64OF 138
TAL
36
PERF
53
RET
40
DL
122OF 138
DL RET
17
LB
135OF 138
LB RET
8
FRONT-7SOUTH ALABAMA DEFENSE
APP OFFENSIVE LINEn=2060% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TYRIQ POINDEXTEROLRET
514TH YR—45★3—
MAC WALTERSOLPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA
504TH YR——UNR—
LANCE WILLIAMSOLRET
494TH YR—17★3—
JAYDEN THOMASOLTRUE FR
493RD YR——UNR—
CAYDEN SWEATTOLRET
494TH YR—40★3-2 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USA FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS87% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TYLER CARTERDLRET
483RD YR2570★3—
E'MAURI SMILEYDLRET
472ND YR5037★3—
STEPHEN JOHNSONDLRET
444TH YR5228★3—
PARKER SHATTUCKLBRET
433RD YR4923★3—
TRE'MON HENRYLBRET
424TH YR509★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBAPP STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
104OF 138
TAL
54
PERF
45
RET
44
DL
122OF 138
DL RET
17
LB
135OF 138
LB RET
8
FRONT-7SOUTH ALABAMA DEFENSE
APP RUNNING BACKSn=756% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TREYAUN WEBBRBPORTAL · FLORIDA
514TH YR4887★4+23
JA'QUEZ CROSSRBPORTAL · ARKANSAS STATE
494TH YR9443★3+3
KANYE ROBERTSRBRET
444TH YR8715★2+0 2024
JAQUARI LEWISRBRET
442ND YR7666★3-31
MAX GUESTRBRET
382ND YR—49★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS87% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553317%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.45248%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEAPP STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
70OF 138
TAL
19
PERF
50
RET
11
DB
82OF 138
DB RET
64
SECONDARYSOUTH ALABAMA DEFENSE
APP PASS CATCHERSn=2289% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SAM PICKETT IIIWRPORTAL · SAMFORD
522ND YR—9★3—
NATE BRANCHWRTRUE FR
523RD YR——UNR—
DAZMIN JAMESWRTRUE FR
524TH YR—28★3—
JAMEL HOWSETETRUE FR
511ST YR——★3—
DARRIN FUGITTTETRUE FR
504TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USA SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM36% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DAMYRION DARBYCBRET
543RD YR—26★3—
COLE BLAYLOCKSRET
494TH YR5121★3—
D.J. MOORESPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH
494TH YR259★3—
JAYVON HENDERSONSRET
464TH YR799★3-1
KALEB JACKSONSRET
454TH YR—93★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
APP
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
55.2
41.0
— OFFENSE
59.5
36.4
— DEFENSE
50.9
45.7
SP+ OVERALL
-7.4
-10.3
FPI
-5.0
-7.3
ELO
1324
1393
TALENT
622
573
PRODUCTION
19
16
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+4
−10
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.10
0.02
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
APP
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USA
OFF EFFICIENCY
36
44
DEF EFFICIENCY
15
31
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
24
27
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
73
42
FINISHING DRIVES
42
61
FIELD POSITION
76
59
TURNOVER MARGIN
55
43
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
APP
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USA
PASS RATE
48.4%
35.8%
PACE
24.9s
23.9s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
57.0%
70.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
60.3%
50.0%
PLAYS / GAME
72.3
75.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
1.8%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = APP, ORANGE = USA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE