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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 13›CCU @ JMU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
M-OH @ WMU0
KENT @ EMU0
TCU @ TTU0
TULN @ USF0
TEM @ MEM0
FAU @ ECU0
NEB @ IOWA0
MSST @ MISS0
TOL @ OHIO0
BUF @ AKR0
APP @ USA0
NDSU @ SJSU0
FLA @ FSU0
MINN @ WIS0
TEX @ TA&M0
WVU @ UTAH0
USC @ UCLA0
TENN @ VAN0
CONN @ WYO0
AUB @ ALA0
CCU @ JMU0
NAVY @ CLT0
NCSU @ UNC0
DUKE @ WAKE0
TLSA @ UTSA0
BAY @ HOU0
ARMY @ RICE0
GT @ UGA0
LSU @ ARK0
LOU @ UK0
LT @ GASO0
PUR @ IU0
SMU @ STAN0
UCF @ COLO0
MRSH @ ULM0
PSU @ MD0
KU @ OKST0
WASH @ ORE0
PITT @ CAL0
OU @ MIZ0
USM @ ODU0
UVA @ VT0
SC @ CLEM0
ND @ SYR0
ASU @ ARIZ0
UAB @ UNT0
BC @ MIA0
KSU @ ISU0
UL @ GAST0
CIN @ BYU0
MSU @ RUTG0
UTEP @ NIU0
ILL @ NU0
CMU @ BALL0
MICH @ OSU0
MASS @ BGSU0
KENN @ WKU0
LIB @ MOST0
SHSU @ FIU0
NMSU @ MTSU0
TROY @ ARST0
JXST @ DEL0
AF @ UNM0
NEV @ UNLV0
SAC @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
COASTAL CAROLINA
JAMES MADISON
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|BRIDGEFORTH STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP3|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
103FPI
CCUSBCCOASTAL CAROLINA
1-2
24
32
23
15%
33
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
59FPI
JMUSBCJAMES MADISON
3-0
27
28
96
8%
23
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
CCU42CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
74
PROE
19
TEMPO
33
EXPLOSIVE74p
74
PROE19p
19
TEMPO33p
33
JMU32CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
53
PROE
19
TEMPO
23
EXPLOSIVE53p
53
PROE19p
19
TEMPO23p
23
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
CCURECORD OVERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs3.4-8.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.1
COASTAL CAROLINA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
JMURECORD MATCHES
12-1ACTUALvs11.5-1.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+21.5
JAMES MADISON won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 11.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCOASTAL CAROLINAJAMES MADISON2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Tad HudsonQB · 65% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSamari CollierPORTAL · DELAWARE STATE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMJ MorrisQB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL90%Zeke Durham-CampbellPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNoah ArinzeDE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSawyer Goram-WelchNT · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL71%Thomas JohnsonOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick Del GrandeOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoseph HansonOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE67%Bryson GravesPORTAL · DELAWARE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrooks JohnsonTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCameron WrightWR · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB65%Xamarion GordonS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAvyonne JonesPORTAL · STEPHEN F. AUSTIN · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMyles MooyoungCB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB56%Dontae LunanLB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLuke MurphyPORTAL · UCONN · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShane BruceLB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB54%Ja'Vin SimpkinsPORTAL · UAB · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen JohnRB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBTrever Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASOsiris Lopez · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLDonovan Grayson · PORTAL ★3 · SAMFORDMitchell Toney · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI STATEXzavier Booker · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMA A&M2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLApisa Poumele · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL MICHIGANMason Barton · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSON STATEPARTIAL
WR/TETristian Gardner · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI STATETamarion LaFortune · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN CONNECTICUT STATEClayton Coppock · PORTAL ★3 · KENNESAW STATE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBJalen Lee · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH DAKOTA STATEMason Moore · PORTAL ★3 · LEHIGHTyler Woodard · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBAzarel Juste · PORTAL ★3 · BRYANTMarcellius Pulliam · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEJordan Thompson · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN CAROLINA2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBDaelen Alexander · PORTAL ★3 · RICEREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · COASTAL CAROLINA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
25.314 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
18.716 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
28.518 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB484852051 OF 5 GRADED
RB3333578374 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE555545492010 OF 20 GRADED
OL53532560165 OF 16 GRADED
DL434334181611 OF 16 GRADED
LB4848457104 OF 10 GRADED
DB535357312311 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE24th24
BLUE-CHIP RATIO12%53
RECRUITING CLASS#118 · 0/13 BC12
CLASS RANK TREND-43 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 33 IN / 43 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
JMUBILLY NAPIERFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3939
PACE
1818
PASS RATE
4444
EXPLOSIVENESS
6262
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4141
HAVOC
4747
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CCURYAN BEARDFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8888
PACE
2626
PASS RATE
8989
EXPLOSIVENESS
100100
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
77
HAVOC
2929
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCCU OFFENSEJMU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCOASTAL CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
88OF 138
TAL
52
PERF
48
RET
0
NATIONAL
26OF 136
RET
7
FULL DEFENSEJAMES MADISON DEFENSE
CCU QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DEUCE BAILEYQBTRUE FR
461ST YR4552★3+19
TREVER JACKSONQBPORTAL · ARKANSAS
382ND YR—64★3—
TRE GUERRAQBTRUE FR
303RD YR——UNR—
OSIRIS LOPEZQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—63★3—
LUKE MCBRIDEQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JMU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 47 PLAYERS60% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
7153%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
6725%0%
SECONDARYDB
6138%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCOASTAL CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
63OF 138
TAL
25
PERF
53
RET
60
DL
10OF 138
DL RET
53
LB
14OF 138
LB RET
25
FRONT-7JAMES MADISON DEFENSE
CCU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1640% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TRAY FRANKLINOLRET
624TH YR—9★3-35 2025
GAVIN MCLAUGHLINOLRET
522ND YR——UNR—
JOSHUA DANIELOLTRUE FR
493RD YR——UNR—
KAIN MCDONALDOLRET
492ND YR—30★3—
DAUGHTRY RICHARDSONOLPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC
464TH YR—17★3-35 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JMU FRONT-7n=25 · 2 ROOMS58% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AMAR THOMASEDGERET
624TH YR8664★3+22
CHUKWUNEDU OKEKEDLPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY
522ND YR—53★3—
NAKIAN JACKSONLBPORTAL · NEVADA
504TH YR6628★3+7
TURNER SCHMIDTEDGERET
492ND YR2945★3—
LEE JOHNSONLBRET
491ST YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCOASTAL CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
128OF 138
TAL
57
PERF
33
RET
83
DL
10OF 138
DL RET
53
LB
14OF 138
LB RET
25
FRONT-7JAMES MADISON DEFENSE
CCU RUNNING BACKSn=717% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DAELEN ALEXANDERRBPORTAL · RICE
543RD YR—45★3+23 2025
JADEN ALLEN-HENDRIXRBPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
522ND YR117★3—
DOMINIC KNICELYRBRET
482ND YR5567★3+13
BREYAHN TOWNSENDRBRET
483RD YR31—UNR-58
JEVON EDWARDSRBRET
452ND YR5767★3-6
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JMU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 25 PLAYERS59% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557153%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456725%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECOASTAL CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
45OF 138
TAL
45
PERF
55
RET
49
DB
24OF 138
DB RET
38
SECONDARYJAMES MADISON DEFENSE
CCU PASS CATCHERSn=2051% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TRISTIAN GARDNERWRPORTAL · MISSOURI STATE
652ND YR6564★3+33
CYRUS ELLISONTEPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
504TH YR—17★3—
GOLDIE LAWRENCEWRPORTAL · FLORIDA A&M
493RD YR—28★3—
COLTON HINTONWRRET
494TH YR3245★3—
CLAYTON COPPOCK JR.WRTRUE FR
482ND YR6845★3-7
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JMU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM62% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KEN WILLISCBRET
604TH YR585★3-16
CHASE REGANSRET
523RD YR—29★3—
DJ KELLYCBPORTAL · TOLEDO
492ND YR4754★3—
TJ MCGILLSRET
473RD YR40—UNR—
KJ FLOWESRET
463RD YR5755★3-25
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
JMU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
41.7
46.1
— OFFENSE
46.3
53.1
— DEFENSE
37.1
39.0
SP+ OVERALL
-9.5
4.0
FPI
-8.3
3.3
ELO
1267
1777
TALENT
574
588
PRODUCTION
15
50
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+13
−5
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.12
0.05
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
JMU
OFF EFFICIENCY
8
74
DEF EFFICIENCY
22
100
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
60
73
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
41
3
FINISHING DRIVES
43
69
FIELD POSITION
34
6
TURNOVER MARGIN
36
56
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
JMU
PASS RATE
51.8%
41.8%
PACE
28.6s
29.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
57.8%
62.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
72.1%
54.5%
PLAYS / GAME
63.0
60.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
2.6%
3.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CCU, ORANGE = JMU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE