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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 13›MRSH @ ULM›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
M-OH @ WMU0
KENT @ EMU0
TCU @ TTU0
TULN @ USF0
TEM @ MEM0
FAU @ ECU0
NEB @ IOWA0
MSST @ MISS0
TOL @ OHIO0
BUF @ AKR0
APP @ USA0
NDSU @ SJSU0
FLA @ FSU0
MINN @ WIS0
TEX @ TA&M0
WVU @ UTAH0
USC @ UCLA0
TENN @ VAN0
CONN @ WYO0
AUB @ ALA0
CCU @ JMU0
NAVY @ CLT0
NCSU @ UNC0
DUKE @ WAKE0
TLSA @ UTSA0
BAY @ HOU0
ARMY @ RICE0
GT @ UGA0
LSU @ ARK0
LOU @ UK0
LT @ GASO0
PUR @ IU0
SMU @ STAN0
UCF @ COLO0
MRSH @ ULM0
PSU @ MD0
KU @ OKST0
WASH @ ORE0
PITT @ CAL0
OU @ MIZ0
USM @ ODU0
UVA @ VT0
SC @ CLEM0
ND @ SYR0
ASU @ ARIZ0
UAB @ UNT0
BC @ MIA0
KSU @ ISU0
UL @ GAST0
CIN @ BYU0
MSU @ RUTG0
UTEP @ NIU0
ILL @ NU0
CMU @ BALL0
MICH @ OSU0
MASS @ BGSU0
KENN @ WKU0
LIB @ MOST0
SHSU @ FIU0
NMSU @ MTSU0
TROY @ ARST0
JXST @ DEL0
AF @ UNM0
NEV @ UNLV0
SAC @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MARSHALL
UL MONROE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2026
SAT 00:00 ET|MALONE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP26|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
117FPI
MRSHSBCMARSHALL
2-1
30
19
25
99%
18
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
135FPI
ULMSBCUL MONROE
0-3
4
16
42
39%
72
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MRSH14CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
7
PROE
18
TEMPO
18
EXPLOSIVE7p
7
PROE18p
18
TEMPO18p
18
ULM28CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
3
PROE
8
TEMPO
72
EXPLOSIVE3p
3
PROE8p
8
TEMPO72p
72
IS THE RECORD REAL2026 · FULL SEASON
MRSHRECORD OVERSTATES
2-1ACTUALvs0.7-2.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-12.3
MARSHALL won 2 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 0.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ULMRECORD MATCHES
0-3ACTUALvs0.6-2.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-19.3
UL MONROE won 0 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 0.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMARSHALLUL MONROE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL78%Paul Hutson IIIPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamaal Whyce Jr.PORTAL · BAYLOR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNaquan CrowderPORTAL · MINNESOTA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB75%Antwan Roberts Jr.PORTAL · ARIZONA · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael AllenPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin Williams-ThomasPORTAL · MASSACHUSETTS · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL67%Shunmarkus AdamsOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEric MeeksOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian RichterOL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB58%Jibreel Al-AminLB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKerion MartinLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJayland ParkerLB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB51%Cam SmithS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarvae MyersDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarrell SweetingPORTAL · UAB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE10%Jakolbe BaldwinWR · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB6%JacQai LongQB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLKeydel Painter · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA UNIONTerry Nwabuisi-Ezeala · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILTCole Funderburk · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FOREST2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJamarion Wilcox · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYJosiah McLaurin · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLANDTJ Lester · PORTAL ★3 · WEST GEORGIAREFILLED
OLJaquez Joiner · PORTAL ★3 · UCFRobby Martin · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIALogan Greer · PORTAL ★3 · PENNWEST CALIFORNIA3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBAndre Parker · SIGNEE ★3Zeke Gunn · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBBrayden Hall · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL CONNECTICUTTerrente Hinton · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATEJaycee Houston · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEChristian Hamilton · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIAChris Culliver · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINABrennan Chambers · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MARSHALL
CARRIED COMPOSITE
44.865 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
54.179 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
39.548 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB69694110052 OF 5 GRADED
RB3232557054 OF 5 GRADED
WR/TE47471872209 OF 20 GRADED
OL535333402311 OF 23 GRADED
DL505044222110 OF 21 GRADED
LB50505382116 OF 11 GRADED
DB444442362514 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE30th30
BLUE-CHIP RATIO6%30
RECRUITING CLASS#123 · 0/17 BC8
CLASS RANK TREND-20 · 3 CYCLES10
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 29 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ULMBRYANT VINCENT3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
55
PACE
1616
PASS RATE
1616
EXPLOSIVENESS
4848
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7474
HAVOC
1414
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MRSHTONY GIBSON2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1414
PACE
4444
PASS RATE
1515
EXPLOSIVENESS
22
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
22
HAVOC
88
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMRSH OFFENSEULM OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMARSHALL OFFENSE
NATIONAL
18OF 138
TAL
41
PERF
69
RET
100
NATIONAL
79OF 136
RET
51
FULL DEFENSEUL MONROE DEFENSE
MRSH QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CARLOS DEL RIO-WILSONQBRET
674TH YR7845★3-9
KHALIL WILKINSQBPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
502ND YR4017★3-52
ZION TURNERQBRET
444TH YR759★3-28
DYLAN BARBERQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—34★3—
KOI FAGANQBRET
351ST YR—62★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ULM DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS51% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3840%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
4976%0%
SECONDARYDB
4144%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMARSHALL OFFENSE
NATIONAL
61OF 138
TAL
33
PERF
53
RET
40
DL
114OF 138
DL RET
40
LB
66OF 138
LB RET
76
FRONT-7UL MONROE DEFENSE
MRSH OFFENSIVE LINEn=2360% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JALEN SLAPPYOLRET
644TH YR9631★3+22
XAVIER BAUSLEYOLPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
544TH YR8078★3+20
ROBBY MARTINOLPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
492ND YR3645★3—
ANDREW DUDLEYOLRET
491ST YR3334★3—
JACK LAIRDOLRET
491ST YR3228★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ULM FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS46% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NOAH FLEMMINGSLBRET
754TH YR81—UNR+4
JAMES SMITHDLRET
574TH YR76—UNR+12
MOSES MADUBUIKEDETRUE FR
523RD YR21—UNR—
KEVONTAY WELLSDLRET
514TH YR9145★3+17
MARCUS ROSSLBRET
504TH YR7217★3+20
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMARSHALL OFFENSE
NATIONAL
131OF 138
TAL
55
PERF
32
RET
70
DL
114OF 138
DL RET
40
LB
66OF 138
LB RET
76
FRONT-7UL MONROE DEFENSE
MRSH RUNNING BACKSn=530% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JUDAH PRICERBRET
492ND YR32—UNR+8
JO'SHON BARBIERBRET
474TH YR5964★3-31
TJ LESTERRBTRUE FR
462ND YR617★3+20
ANTHONY QUINN JR.RBRET
441ST YR652★3—
TJ LESTERRBTRUE FR
372ND YR—17★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ULM FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS44% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553840%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454976%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMARSHALL OFFENSE
NATIONAL
81OF 138
TAL
18
PERF
47
RET
72
DB
123OF 138
DB RET
44
SECONDARYUL MONROE DEFENSE
MRSH PASS CATCHERSn=2028% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ADRIAN NORTONWRRET
594TH YR9832★3+5
TOBY PAYNETERET
554TH YR9115★2-7 2025
OWEN SWEENEYWRPORTAL · VMI
492ND YR35—UNR—
XAYVION TURNER-BRADSHAWWRRET
484TH YR552★3+18
CHRIS CULLIVERWRPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
443RD YR6928★3+13
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ULM SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM56% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KORIAN WILSONDBRET
784TH YR7713★2-9
JABARI TILLERDBRET
724TH YR68—UNR+1
TAIJH OVERTONSPORTAL · ARKANSAS
522ND YR3564★3—
JAYDEN LEWISDBTRUE FR
503RD YR41—UNR—
CARL FAUNTROYSRET
494TH YR9217★3+4
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MRSH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ULM
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
35.8
39.2
— OFFENSE
42.3
46.5
— DEFENSE
29.3
31.9
SP+ OVERALL
-11.7
-29.3
FPI
-11.9
-22.6
ELO
1391
1076
TALENT
595
505
PRODUCTION
18
0
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+12
+4
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.06
0.11
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MRSH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ULM
OFF EFFICIENCY
33
36
DEF EFFICIENCY
4
1
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
8
3
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
66
54
FINISHING DRIVES
28
24
FIELD POSITION
91
73
TURNOVER MARGIN
15
13
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MRSH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ULM
PASS RATE
43.8%
47.1%
PACE
30.3s
26.2s
4TH-DOWN GO RATE
10%
33%
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
61.6%
62.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
56.6%
71.9%
PLAYS / GAME
59.3
68.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
1.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MRSH, ORANGE = ULM) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE