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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 13›SHSU @ FIU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
M-OH @ WMU0
KENT @ EMU0
TCU @ TTU0
TULN @ USF0
TEM @ MEM0
FAU @ ECU0
NEB @ IOWA0
MSST @ MISS0
TOL @ OHIO0
BUF @ AKR0
APP @ USA0
NDSU @ SJSU0
FLA @ FSU0
MINN @ WIS0
TEX @ TA&M0
WVU @ UTAH0
USC @ UCLA0
TENN @ VAN0
CONN @ WYO0
AUB @ ALA0
CCU @ JMU0
NAVY @ CLT0
NCSU @ UNC0
DUKE @ WAKE0
TLSA @ UTSA0
BAY @ HOU0
ARMY @ RICE0
GT @ UGA0
LSU @ ARK0
LOU @ UK0
LT @ GASO0
PUR @ IU0
SMU @ STAN0
UCF @ COLO0
MRSH @ ULM0
PSU @ MD0
KU @ OKST0
WASH @ ORE0
PITT @ CAL0
OU @ MIZ0
USM @ ODU0
UVA @ VT0
SC @ CLEM0
ND @ SYR0
ASU @ ARIZ0
UAB @ UNT0
BC @ MIA0
KSU @ ISU0
UL @ GAST0
CIN @ BYU0
MSU @ RUTG0
UTEP @ NIU0
ILL @ NU0
CMU @ BALL0
MICH @ OSU0
MASS @ BGSU0
KENN @ WKU0
LIB @ MOST0
SHSU @ FIU0
NMSU @ MTSU0
TROY @ ARST0
JXST @ DEL0
AF @ UNM0
NEV @ UNLV0
SAC @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
SAM HOUSTON
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 14:00 ET|PITBULL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP20|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
123FPI
SHSUCUSASAM HOUSTON
0-2
15
1
5
58%
51
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
109FPI
FIUCUSAFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
1-1
35
13
27
32%
91
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
SHSU49CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
42
PROE
54
TEMPO
51
EXPLOSIVE42p
42
PROE54p
54
TEMPO51p
51
FIU53CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
34
PROE
33
TEMPO
91
EXPLOSIVE34p
34
PROE33p
33
TEMPO91p
91
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
SHSURECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs1.7-10.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-20.1
SAM HOUSTON won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 1.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
FIURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.4-5.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.5
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSAM HOUSTONFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL95%Rhett LarsonOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKolt DieterichOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLuke EckardtOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB68%Emon AllenDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlonzo Edwards Jr.DB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCJ BrownDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB67%Hunter WatsonQB · 48% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMabrey MettauerQB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB64%Antavious FishLB · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCJ JohnsonLB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaMair DiazPORTAL · TEMPLE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE49%Malik PhillipsWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin SmithTE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQua'Vez HumphreysPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL43%Christopher Eaton Jr.DE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZeiqui LawtonPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuardale PattDL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB28%Elijah GreenRB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLDenell Nix Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATEJosiah Chenault · PORTAL ★3 · KENNESAW STATEElijah Collins · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN CAROLINA2 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DBIshmel Atkins · PORTAL ★3 · ELONWilliam Davis · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIACJ June · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
LBElijah Groves · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATEStacy Bey · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONABrian Bates · PORTAL ★3 · DELAWARE STATE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEKyan Berry-Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSINMax Whisner · PORTAL ★3 · AKRONJack Merryman · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLJayden Fry · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGEJarra Anderson · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONAJustin Terrell · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBKaden Winkfield · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SAM HOUSTON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
37.142 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
31.035 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
40.451 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB37376610051 OF 5 GRADED
RB44441710072 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE3939365321CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL303023017CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL40405156158 OF 15 GRADED
LB35354040126 OF 12 GRADED
DB393937582210 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE15th15
BLUE-CHIP RATIO2%11
RECRUITING CLASS#126 · 0/16 BC6
CLASS RANK TREND-2 · 3 CYCLES46
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 20 IN / 15 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
FIUWILLIE SIMMONS2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3838
PACE
7979
PASS RATE
4242
EXPLOSIVENESS
8080
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7575
HAVOC
6060
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SHSUPHIL LONGO2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6565
PACE
1919
PASS RATE
8888
EXPLOSIVENESS
4747
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8383
HAVOC
1515
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSHSU OFFENSEFIU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSAM HOUSTON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
119OF 138
TAL
66
PERF
37
RET
100
NATIONAL
94OF 136
RET
24
FULL DEFENSEFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL DEFENSE
SHSU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LANDYN LOCKEQBRET
432ND YR5766★3-46
BRETT HOLLOWAYQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—27★3—
DJ BAILEYQBRET
443RD YR—23★3—
MASON HOLTZCLAWQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—34★3—
SHAAN PATELQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FIU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 47 PLAYERS67% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4333%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
3738%0%
SECONDARYDB
5230%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSAM HOUSTON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
133OF 138
TAL
23
PERF
30
RET
0
DL
96OF 138
DL RET
33
LB
109OF 138
LB RET
38
FRONT-7FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL DEFENSE
SHSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=17100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOSIAH CHENAULTOLPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE
534TH YR—28★3+18 2025
ISAAC SOHNOLRET
523RD YR—9★3—
CAM TODDOLRET
504TH YR—0★2—
DENELL NIX JR.OLPORTAL · APP STATE
402ND YR—28★3-48 2025
BROCK STUKESOLPORTAL · NC STATE
374TH YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FIU FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS65% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PERCY COURTNEY JR.LBRET
534TH YR7021★3+11
ELIJAH SIMMONSDLPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
524TH YR215★3—
KYRIE SAMUELDLRET
514TH YR34—UNR—
JOSIAH TAYLORLBRET
513RD YR8138★3+14
RJ MOSS JR.DLPORTAL · SOUTH ALABAMA
503RD YR7245★3-27
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSAM HOUSTON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
109OF 138
TAL
17
PERF
44
RET
100
DL
96OF 138
DL RET
33
LB
109OF 138
LB RET
38
FRONT-7FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL DEFENSE
SHSU RUNNING BACKSn=70% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LANDAN BROWNRBRET
564TH YR6335★3+4
JERRIAN PARKER JR.RBRET
463RD YR—42★3—
ALTON MCCASKILLRBRET
434TH YR719★3-20
KADEN WINKFIELDRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—38★3—
MJ DOWDYRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—34★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FIU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS64% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554333%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453738%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESAM HOUSTON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
116OF 138
TAL
36
PERF
39
RET
53
DB
65OF 138
DB RET
30
SECONDARYFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL DEFENSE
SHSU PASS CATCHERSn=2147% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MAX WHISNERTEPORTAL · AKRON
494TH YR1317★3—
MATT SMITHTETRUE FR
484TH YR—41★3—
KYAN BERRY-JOHNSONWRPORTAL · WISCONSIN
483RD YR1628★3—
CHRIS REEDWRRET
484TH YR6959★3+17
GRADY O'NEILLWRRET
444TH YR731★2-9
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FIU SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM70% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SHAMIR STERLINDBRET
832ND YR8027★3+17
WESLEY MILLERDBPORTAL · SOUTH ALABAMA
504TH YR9728★3+7
JAI-AYVIAUYNN CELESTINEDBRET
504TH YR7351★3+16
DEANDRE BOYKINSDBPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
474TH YR9228★3-28
DEMETRIUS HILLDBRET
474TH YR—59★3+6 2025
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SHSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FIU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
37.8
43.8
— OFFENSE
30.5
48.5
— DEFENSE
45.2
39.1
SP+ OVERALL
-21.1
-11.5
FPI
-14.6
-9.3
ELO
1161
1409
TALENT
554
608
PRODUCTION
3
17
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+15
+12
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.02
0.09
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
SHSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FIU
OFF EFFICIENCY
8
34
DEF EFFICIENCY
5
45
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
59
75
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
42
40
FINISHING DRIVES
8
41
FIELD POSITION
92
34
TURNOVER MARGIN
57
77
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SHSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FIU
PASS RATE
65.9%
57.6%
PACE
27.3s
23.8s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
40.5%
48.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
79.1%
68.5%
PLAYS / GAME
66.0
75.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SHSU, ORANGE = FIU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE