SAT 22:30 ET|ARIZONA STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP30|O/U68.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
17
4-8
85
33
26
55%
96
60
32.5
—
+3.5
HOME
20
4-8
55
67
19
58%
71
86
36.0
—
-3.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2019CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALUCLA17—ARIZ20
CLOSED ARIZ -3.5TOTAL 68.5UCLA COVERED · 37 POINTS · UNDER
UCLA
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
ARIZ
UCLA
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ARIZ
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2019 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 5 FIELD n=51
MARKET
TOTAL68.5
SPREADARIZ -3.5
IMPLIED — UCLA32.5
IMPLIED — ARIZ36.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
65FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT0 SLOTSBoth rankings put this game in the same place on the week's board.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2019 · FULL SEASON
UCLARECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.2-7.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-8.1
UCLA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ARIZRECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.1-7.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-8.8
ARIZONA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUCLAARIZONA2019 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Wilton SpeightQB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
RB0%Soso JamaboRB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE0%Christian PabicoWR · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%Josh Wariboko-AlaliOL · SHARE NOT MEASURED
DL0%Chigozie NnorukaPORTAL · MIAMI · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB0%Donovan WilliamsLB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB0%Adarius PickettDB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
RBJahmon McClendon · SIGNEE ★3Sitiveni Havili Kaufusi · SIGNEE ★3Christian Grubb · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
WR/TEMichael Martinez · SIGNEE ★4Charles Njoku · SIGNEE ★3Deavyn Woullard · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLSean Rhyan · SIGNEE ★4Duke Clemens · SIGNEE ★3Beau Taylor · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DLSiale Taupaki · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBJohn Ward · SIGNEE ★3Hayden Harris · SIGNEE ★3Barret Albright · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
DBShamar Martin · SIGNEE ★4William Nimmo Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Carl Jones · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UCLA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB———435CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
RB———869CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE————22CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL————21CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL————18CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB————21CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB————19CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE85th85
BLUE-CHIP RATIO26%81
RECRUITING CLASS#40 · 3/31 BC71
CLASS RANK TREND-20 · 3 CYCLES10
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX27%37
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ARIZKEVIN SUMLIN2TH SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UCLACHIP KELLY2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5656
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9292
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUCLA OFFENSEARIZ OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUCLA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEARIZONA DEFENSE UCLA QUARTERBACKSn=557% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARIZ DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUCLA OFFENSEFRONT-7ARIZONA DEFENSE UCLA OFFENSIVE LINEn=21RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARIZ FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUCLA OFFENSEFRONT-7ARIZONA DEFENSE UCLA RUNNING BACKSn=914% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARIZ FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUCLA OFFENSESECONDARYARIZONA DEFENSE UCLA PASS CATCHERSn=22RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARIZ SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOMRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UCLA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARIZ
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+44
+29
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UCLA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARIZ
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS55.3%
53.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS61.5%
68.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
0.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UCLA, ORANGE = ARIZ) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2019, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE