SAT 12:00 ET|OHIO STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP23|O/U48.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
7
10-3
77
91
90
71%
48
95
16.8
—
+14.5
HOME
38
13-0
99
98
97
28%
92
71
31.3
—
-14.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2019CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALWIS7—OSU38
CLOSED OSU -14.5TOTAL 48.0OSU COVERED · 45 POINTS · UNDER
WIS
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
OSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2019 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 9 FIELD n=55
MARKET
TOTAL48.0
SPREADOSU -14.5
IMPLIED — WIS16.8
IMPLIED — OSU31.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
59FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT29 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 29 positions on a 55-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2019 · FULL SEASON
WISRECORD UNDERSTATES
10-3ACTUALvs11.2-1.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+18.5
WISCONSIN won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 11.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
OSURECORD MATCHES
13-0ACTUALvs12.5-0.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+36.2
OHIO STATE won 13 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 12.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWISCONSINOHIO STATE2019 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Alex HornibrookPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · SHARE NOT MEASURED
RB0%Taiwan DealRB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE0%Zander NeuvilleTE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL0%Michael DeiterDRAFTED · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL0%Olive SagapoluNT · SHARE NOT MEASURED
LB0%Ryan ConnellyDRAFTED · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB0%D'Cota DixonS · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
RBJulius Davis · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
WR/TEHayden Rucci · SIGNEE ★3Clay Cundiff · SIGNEE ★3Stephan Bracey · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLLogan Brown · SIGNEE ★5Joe Tippmann · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
DLRodas Johnson · SIGNEE ★3Gio Paez · SIGNEE ★3Keeanu Benton · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBSpencer Lytle · SIGNEE ★4Maema Njongmeta · SIGNEE ★3Skyler Meyers · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DBTitus Toler · SIGNEE ★3Semar Melvin · SIGNEE ★3Dean Engram · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WISCONSIN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB———314CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
RB———7410CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE————26CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL————16CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL————13CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB————17CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB————21CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE77th77
BLUE-CHIP RATIO14%72
RECRUITING CLASS#29 · 4/21 BC79
CLASS RANK TREND+10 · 3 CYCLES70
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX17%7
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
OSURYAN DAYFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8181
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6565
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WISPAUL CHRYST4TH SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWIS OFFENSEOSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWISCONSIN OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEOHIO STATE DEFENSE WIS QUARTERBACKSn=469% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 59 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWISCONSIN OFFENSEFRONT-7OHIO STATE DEFENSE WIS OFFENSIVE LINEn=16RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OSU FRONT-7n=39 · 2 ROOMSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWISCONSIN OFFENSEFRONT-7OHIO STATE DEFENSE WIS RUNNING BACKSn=1026% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 39 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.55——45%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWISCONSIN OFFENSESECONDARYOHIO STATE DEFENSE WIS PASS CATCHERSn=26RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OSU SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOMRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WIS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−17
−1
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WIS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS71.8%
66.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS65.1%
55.6%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.7%
4.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WIS, ORANGE = OSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2019, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE