SAT 15:00 ET|BOBCAT STADIUM (TX)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP6|O/U63.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
63
5-7
22
67
8
47%
91
89
35.3
—
-7.0
HOME
27
3-9
16
6
47
41%
3
45
28.3
—
+7.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2019CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALTROY63—TXST27
CLOSED TROY -7.0TOTAL 63.5TROY COVERED · 90 POINTS · OVER
TROY
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
TXST
TROY
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TXST
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2019 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 12 FIELD n=51
MARKET
TOTAL63.5
SPREADTROY -7.0
IMPLIED — TROY35.3
IMPLIED — TXST28.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
44FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT25 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 25 positions on a 51-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2019 · FULL SEASON
TROYRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs5.8-6.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.9
TROY won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TXSTRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.5-9.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-14.2
TEXAS STATE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTROYTEXAS STATE2019 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Sawyer SmithPORTAL · KENTUCKY · SHARE NOT MEASURED
RB0%Jamarius HendersonRB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE0%Deondre DouglasWR · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%Deontae CrumitieOL · SHARE NOT MEASURED
DL0%Doug SalterDT · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB0%Hunter ReeseLB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB0%Cedarius RookardS · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
RBJamontez Woods · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
WR/TEDonovan Curry · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLJaylen Childs · SIGNEE ★3Kannon Biggs · SIGNEE ★3Tyler Burnsed · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
DLRicky Samuel · SIGNEE ★3Desmond Barkley · SIGNEE ★3Michael Ramseur · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
LBAhdarrious Gee · SIGNEE ★3Javon Solomon · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DBReddy Steward · SIGNEE ★3Dell Pettus · SIGNEE ★3Christian Murphy · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TROY
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB———386CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
RB———9310CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE————20CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL————20CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL————17CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB————15CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB————21CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE22nd22
BLUE-CHIP RATIO2%31
RECRUITING CLASS#80 · 0/18 BC41
CLASS RANK TREND+16 · 3 CYCLES82
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
DEV TRANSITION MIX37%83
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TXSTJAKE SPAVITALFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8686
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TROYCHIP LINDSEYFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTROY OFFENSETXST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTROY OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETEXAS STATE DEFENSE TROY QUARTERBACKSn=662% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTROY OFFENSEFRONT-7TEXAS STATE DEFENSE TROY OFFENSIVE LINEn=20RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTROY OFFENSEFRONT-7TEXAS STATE DEFENSE TROY RUNNING BACKSn=107% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETROY OFFENSESECONDARYTEXAS STATE DEFENSE TROY PASS CATCHERSn=20RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST SECONDARYn=17 · 1 ROOMRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TROY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TXST
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−18
+2
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TROY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TXST
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS51.4%
41.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS76.4%
72.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.4%
2.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TROY, ORANGE = TXST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2019, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE