SAT 12:00 ET|MICHIGAN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP7|O/U53.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
56
13-0
99
98
97
28%
92
—
31.0
—
-9.0
HOME
27
9-3
93
72
96
75%
49
—
22.0
—
+9.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2019CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALOSU56—MICH27
CLOSED OSU -9.0TOTAL 53.0OSU COVERED · 83 POINTS · OVER
OSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
MICH
OSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MICH
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2019 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 14 FIELD n=64
MARKET
TOTAL53.0
SPREADOSU -9.0
IMPLIED — OSU31.0
IMPLIED — MICH22.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
45FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT8 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 8 positions on a 64-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2019 · FULL SEASON
OSURECORD MATCHES
13-0ACTUALvs12.5-0.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+36.2
OHIO STATE won 13 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 12.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MICHRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.3-2.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.5
MICHIGAN won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROHIO STATEMICHIGAN2019 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Dwayne HaskinsDRAFTED · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB0%Brian SneadRB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE0%Parris CampbellDRAFTED · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%Isaiah PrinceDRAFTED · SHARE NOT MEASURED
DL0%Dre'Mont JonesDRAFTED · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB0%Dante BookerLB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB0%Kendall SheffieldDRAFTED · SHARE NOT MEASURED
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
RBMarcus Crowley · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
WR/TEGarrett Wilson · SIGNEE ★5Jameson Williams · SIGNEE ★4Cormontae Hamilton · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLHarry Miller · SIGNEE ★5Enokk Vimahi · SIGNEE ★4Ryan Jacoby · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
DLJaden McKenzie · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBCade Stover · SIGNEE ★4Tommy Eichenberg · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
DBRonnie Hickman · SIGNEE ★4Bryson Shaw · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OHIO STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB———06CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
RB———576CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE————24CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL————21CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL————22CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB————17CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB————20CARRIED FROM 2018 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE99th99
BLUE-CHIP RATIO72%98
RECRUITING CLASS#14 · 12/18 BC90
CLASS RANK TREND-12 · 3 CYCLES26
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
DEV TRANSITION MIX29%51
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MICHJIM HARBAUGH4TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2828
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3535
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
OSURYAN DAYFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8181
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6565
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESOSU OFFENSEMICH OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOHIO STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMICHIGAN DEFENSE OSU QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MICH DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 64 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOHIO STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7MICHIGAN DEFENSE OSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=21RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MICH FRONT-7n=40 · 2 ROOMSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOHIO STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7MICHIGAN DEFENSE OSU RUNNING BACKSn=643% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MICH FRONT-72 ROOMS · 40 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.55——29%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOHIO STATE OFFENSESECONDARYMICHIGAN DEFENSE OSU PASS CATCHERSn=24RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MICH SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOMRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
OSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MICH
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−1
−1
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
OSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MICH
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS66.0%
60.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS55.6%
67.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE4.7%
2.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = OSU, ORANGE = MICH) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2019, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE