FRI 21:00 ET|MOUNTAIN AMERICA STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/U54.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
24
9-4
77
84
64
61%
69
63
26.0
+130
+2.5
HOME
27
8-5
77
61
86
70%
84
78
28.5
-150
-2.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALTCU24—ASU27
CLOSED ASU -2.5TOTAL 54.5ASU COVERED · 51 POINTS · UNDER
TCU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ASU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 5 FIELD n=51
MARKET
TOTAL54.5
SPREADASU -2.5
IMPLIED — TCU26.0
IMPLIED — ASU28.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
56FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT2 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 2 positions on a 51-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
TCURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.4-4.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.6
TCU won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ASURECORD OVERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs6.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.7
ARIZONA STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTCUARIZONA STATE2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE70%Jack BechDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDrake DabneyTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJP RichardsonWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB55%Cam CookPORTAL · JACKSONVILLE STATE · 45% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDominique JohnsonRB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL49%NaNa Osafo-MensahDL · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb FoxDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTymon MitchellDL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB46%Johnny HodgesLB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCooper McDonaldLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB43%Abe CamaraS · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLaMareon JamesCB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaTravis BroughtonCB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL35%James BrockermeyerPORTAL · MIAMI · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBless HarrisOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%Hauss HejnyPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE · SHARE NOT MEASURED
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEJordan Dwyer · PORTAL ★4 · IDAHOKa'Morreun Pimpton · PORTAL ★3 · LSUTerry Shelton · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJon Denman · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLChad Woodfork · SIGNEE ★4Jared Martin · SIGNEE ★3John Schobel · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBMichael Teason · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI STATEAnthony Williams · SIGNEE ★3Keylan Abrams · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBElijah Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTONMicah Strickland · SIGNEE ★4Deon Mays · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLKilian Registe · SIGNEE ★4Logan Schram · SIGNEE ★3Witten Van Hoy · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBAdam Schobel · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TCU
CARRIED COMPOSITE
54.682 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
54.982 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
54.479 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB59599610052 OF 5 GRADED
RB6666676586 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE717185622114 OF 21 GRADED
OL555571861912 OF 19 GRADED
DL393977611912 OF 19 GRADED
LB50509098137 OF 13 GRADED
DB535374742416 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE77th77
BLUE-CHIP RATIO26%78
RECRUITING CLASS#24 · 6/27 BC83
CLASS RANK TREND-3 · 3 CYCLES44
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 11 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ASUKENNY DILLINGHAM3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5050
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9191
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TCUSONNY DYKES4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8585
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7272
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTCU OFFENSEASU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTCU OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEARIZONA STATE DEFENSE TCU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS21% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTCU OFFENSEFRONT-7ARIZONA STATE DEFENSE TCU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1914% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS6% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTCU OFFENSEFRONT-7ARIZONA STATE DEFENSE TCU RUNNING BACKSn=835% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS5% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556091%17%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETCU OFFENSESECONDARYARIZONA STATE DEFENSE TCU PASS CATCHERSn=2138% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM34% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ASU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+4
+20
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ASU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ASU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS54.9%
60.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS70.0%
69.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.1%
0.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TCU, ORANGE = ASU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE