SAT 17:00 ET|JOHNNY "RED" FLOYD STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/U52.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
20
5-6
39
43
64
32%
13
40
29.8
—
-7.0
HOME
17
3-6
35
57
16
78%
60
24
22.8
—
+7.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2020CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALWKU20—MTSU17
CLOSED WKU -7.0TOTAL 52.5MTSU COVERED · 37 POINTS · UNDER
WKU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
MTSU
WKU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MTSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2020 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 5 FIELD n=28
MARKET
TOTAL52.5
SPREADWKU -7.0
IMPLIED — WKU29.8
IMPLIED — MTSU22.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
56FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT14 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 14 positions on a 28-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2020 · FULL SEASON
WKURECORD OVERSTATES
5-6ACTUALvs3.9-7.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.3
WESTERN KENTUCKY won 5 of 11 against a scoring profile describing 3.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MTSURECORD MATCHES
3-6ACTUALvs2.4-6.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-12.6
MIDDLE TENNESSEE won 3 of 9 against a scoring profile describing 2.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWESTERN KENTUCKYMIDDLE TENNESSEE2020 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Ty StoreyQB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB0%Marcelis LoganRB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE0%Lucky JacksonWR · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
DL0%Carson JordanDL · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB0%Rex HendersonLB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
DB0%Clayton BushDB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
RBJamal Worthy · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
WR/TEDakota Thomas · SIGNEE ★3Barry Wagner · SIGNEE ★3Noah Whittington · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
DLDavid Ndukwe · SIGNEE ★3Wesley Horton · SIGNEE ★3Chase Jones · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBAaron Key · SIGNEE ★3Dezmion Roberson · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DBKendrick Simpkins · SIGNEE ★3Talique Allen · SIGNEE ★3Malachi Corley · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WESTERN KENTUCKY
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB———05CARRIED FROM 2019 · NOTHING GRADED YET
RB———924CARRIED FROM 2019 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE————22CARRIED FROM 2019 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL————17CARRIED FROM 2019 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL————16CARRIED FROM 2019 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB————14CARRIED FROM 2019 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB————26CARRIED FROM 2019 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE39th39
BLUE-CHIP RATIO5%50
RECRUITING CLASS#80 · 0/20 BC41
CLASS RANK TREND+4 · 3 CYCLES58
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX26%23
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MTSURICK STOCKSTILL5TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8989
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5050
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WKUTYSON HELTON2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9696
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6868
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWKU OFFENSEMTSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWESTERN KENTUCKY OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMIDDLE TENNESSEE DEFENSE WKU QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MTSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 46 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWESTERN KENTUCKY OFFENSEFRONT-7MIDDLE TENNESSEE DEFENSE WKU OFFENSIVE LINEn=17RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MTSU FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWESTERN KENTUCKY OFFENSEFRONT-7MIDDLE TENNESSEE DEFENSE WKU RUNNING BACKSn=48% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MTSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWESTERN KENTUCKY OFFENSESECONDARYMIDDLE TENNESSEE DEFENSE WKU PASS CATCHERSn=22RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MTSU SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOMRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WKU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MTSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾0
+18
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WKU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MTSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS56.0%
58.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS68.1%
68.6%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.1%
1.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WKU, ORANGE = MTSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2020, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE