SAT 13:30 ET|ALAMODOMENONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP34|O/U46.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
28
9-2
7
70
46
65%
21
23
27.5
—
-8.5
HOME
16
7-4
40
20
15
84%
74
6
19.0
—
+8.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2020CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALARMY28—UTSA16
CLOSED ARMY -8.5TOTAL 46.5ARMY COVERED · 44 POINTS · UNDER
ARMY
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
UTSA
ARMY
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UTSA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2020 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 7 FIELD n=27
MARKET
TOTAL46.5
SPREADARMY -8.5
IMPLIED — ARMY27.5
IMPLIED — UTSA19.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
61FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT17 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 17 positions on a 27-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2020 · FULL SEASON
ARMYRECORD MATCHES
9-2ACTUALvs9.1-1.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.3
ARMY won 9 of 11 against a scoring profile describing 9.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UTSARECORD MATCHES
7-4ACTUALvs6.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.5
UTSA won 7 of 11 against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERARMYUTSA2020 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Kelvin Hopkins Jr.QB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
RB0%Rashaad BoltonRB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE0%Kjetil ClineWR · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL0%Alex HerndonOL · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL0%Jake EllingtonDL · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB0%Ryan ParkerLB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB0%Elijah RileyDB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
RBMiles Stewart · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
WR/TEIsaiah Gavin · SIGNEE ★3Cori Lewis · SIGNEE ★3Bryant Burns · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
OLDavid Hoyt · SIGNEE ★3Connor Finucane · SIGNEE ★3Aidan Gaines · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DLRaleigh Oxendine · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBBrian Burton · SIGNEE ★3Jacob Mitchell · SIGNEE ★3Austin Hill · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DBJavon Ellis · SIGNEE ★3Tommy Zitiello · SIGNEE ★3Terrell Taylor · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ARMY
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB———229CARRIED FROM 2019 · NOTHING GRADED YET
RB———4820CARRIED FROM 2019 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE————24CARRIED FROM 2019 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL————31CARRIED FROM 2019 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL————24CARRIED FROM 2019 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB————27CARRIED FROM 2019 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB————23CARRIED FROM 2019 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE7th7
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%10
RECRUITING CLASS#111 · 0/47 BC17
CLASS RANK TREND+6 · 3 CYCLES62
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX42%83
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UTSAJEFF TRAYLORFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7474
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6666
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ARMYJEFF MONKEN5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
00
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
100100
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESARMY OFFENSEUTSA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBARMY OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEUTSA DEFENSE ARMY QUARTERBACKSn=978% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTSA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLARMY OFFENSEFRONT-7UTSA DEFENSE ARMY OFFENSIVE LINEn=31RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTSA FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBARMY OFFENSEFRONT-7UTSA DEFENSE ARMY RUNNING BACKSn=2052% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTSA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEARMY OFFENSESECONDARYUTSA DEFENSE ARMY PASS CATCHERSn=24RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTSA SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOMRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ARMY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UTSA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−58
+18
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ARMY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UTSA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS95.1%
61.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS22.6%
65.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.9%
0.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ARMY, ORANGE = UTSA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2020, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE