SAT 14:30 ET|JOAN C. EDWARDS STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP10|O/U51.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
9
5-3
45
35
67
27%
19
7
16.0
—
+19.0
HOME
20
7-2
35
15
50
52%
27
8
35.0
—
-19.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2020CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALFAU9—MRSH20
CLOSED MRSH -19.0TOTAL 51.0FAU COVERED · 29 POINTS · UNDER
FAU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
MRSH
FAU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MRSH
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2020 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 8 FIELD n=44
MARKET
TOTAL51.0
SPREADMRSH -19.0
IMPLIED — FAU16.0
IMPLIED — MRSH35.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
32FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT9 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 9 positions on a 44-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2020 · FULL SEASON
FAURECORD MATCHES
5-3ACTUALvs4.9-3.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.5
FLORIDA ATLANTIC won 5 of 8 against a scoring profile describing 4.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MRSHRECORD UNDERSTATES
7-2ACTUALvs8.0-1.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+18.0
MARSHALL won 7 of 9 against a scoring profile describing 8.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERFLORIDA ATLANTICMARSHALL2020 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Chris RobisonQB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB0%Chauncey MasonRB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
WR/TE0%James BrunsonWR · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%Ean BiancardiOL · SHARE NOT MEASURED
DL0%Anthony BennettDL · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB0%Rashad SmithLB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB0%Ladante HarrisDB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
RBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
WR/TEJa'Marquis Johnson · SIGNEE ★3Kobe Stewart · SIGNEE ★3Justin McKithen · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLAlex Atcavage · SIGNEE ★3Andre Lamas · SIGNEE ★3Evan Anderson · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DLMalik Jones · SIGNEE ★3Jaden Wheeler · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBJarrett Jerrels · SIGNEEINTACT
DBTrevor Reaves · SIGNEE ★3Peter Warrick · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · FLORIDA ATLANTIC
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB———44CARRIED FROM 2019 · NOTHING GRADED YET
RB———929CARRIED FROM 2019 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE————26CARRIED FROM 2019 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL————20CARRIED FROM 2019 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL————14CARRIED FROM 2019 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB————16CARRIED FROM 2019 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB————24CARRIED FROM 2019 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE45th45
BLUE-CHIP RATIO6%55
RECRUITING CLASS#73 · 0/21 BC46
CLASS RANK TREND+2 · 3 CYCLES54
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
DEV TRANSITION MIX42%80
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MRSHDOC HOLLIDAY5TH SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
FAUWILLIE TAGGARTFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESFAU OFFENSEMRSH OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBFLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMARSHALL DEFENSE FAU QUARTERBACKSn=496% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MRSH DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLFLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFENSEFRONT-7MARSHALL DEFENSE FAU OFFENSIVE LINEn=20RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MRSH FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBFLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFENSEFRONT-7MARSHALL DEFENSE FAU RUNNING BACKSn=98% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MRSH FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEFLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFENSESECONDARYMARSHALL DEFENSE FAU PASS CATCHERSn=26RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MRSH SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOMRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
FAU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MRSH
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−3
−46
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
FAU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MRSH
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
FAU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MRSH
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS66.2%
64.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS61.4%
56.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
2.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = FAU, ORANGE = MRSH) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2020, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE