SAT 12:00 ET|HUNTINGTON BANK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP9|O/U51.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
28
5-7
62
88
8
67%
90
93
24.0
+150
+3.5
HOME
31
8-5
71
39
57
44%
7
73
27.5
-175
-3.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALRUTG28—MINN31
CLOSED MINN -3.5TOTAL 51.5RUTG COVERED · 59 POINTS · OVER
RUTG
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
MINN
RUTG
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MINN
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 5 FIELD n=51
MARKET
TOTAL51.5
SPREADMINN -3.5
IMPLIED — RUTG24.0
IMPLIED — MINN27.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
54FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT13 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 13 positions on a 51-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RUTGRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs5.3-6.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.2
RUTGERS won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MINNRECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs5.9-6.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.2
MINNESOTA won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERRUTGERSMINNESOTA2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB67%Shaquan LoyalDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFlip DixonDB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRobert LongerbeamDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB62%Kyle MonangaiDRAFTED · 62% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL58%Kyonte HamiltonDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAaron LewisDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalcolm RayDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB40%Tyreem PowellLB · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTimmy HinspeterPORTAL · MASSACHUSETTS · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE39%Dymere MillerWR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris LongPORTAL · MONTANA STATE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian DremelWR · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL20%Hollin PierceOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%Ajani SheppardQB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBCam Miller · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATETariq Hayer · SIGNEE ★4Michael Clayton · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DLBradley Weaver · PORTAL ★4 · OHIOWydeek Collier · SIGNEE ★4Braxton Kyle · SIGNEE ★34 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBDJ McClary · SIGNEE ★4Kamar Archie · SIGNEE ★3Talibi Kaba · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEColin Weber · PORTAL ★3 · CHARLOTTEDT Sheffield · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASMichael Thomas III · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLJa'Elyne Matthews · SIGNEE ★3N-Kye Wynn · SIGNEE ★3Joshua Blackston · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · RUTGERS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
56.387 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
80.399 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
40.148 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3535469743 OF 4 GRADED
RB7575669286 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE525286652417 OF 24 GRADED
OL545459962513 OF 25 GRADED
DL464666562418 OF 24 GRADED
LB35355195158 OF 15 GRADED
DB454576432515 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE62nd62
BLUE-CHIP RATIO11%53
RECRUITING CLASS#33 · 4/30 BC76
CLASS RANK TREND+24 · 3 CYCLES98
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 19 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MINNP.J. FLECK9TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8181
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
RUTGGREG SCHIANO6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3535
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9898
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESRUTG OFFENSEMINN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBRUTGERS OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMINNESOTA DEFENSE RUTG QUARTERBACKSn=43% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MINN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS18% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLRUTGERS OFFENSEFRONT-7MINNESOTA DEFENSE RUTG OFFENSIVE LINEn=254% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MINN FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS13% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBRUTGERS OFFENSEFRONT-7MINNESOTA DEFENSE RUTG RUNNING BACKSn=88% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MINN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS13% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557086%19%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TERUTGERS OFFENSESECONDARYMINNESOTA DEFENSE RUTG PASS CATCHERSn=2435% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MINN SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM22% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
RUTG
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MINN
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+14
+21
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
RUTG
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MINN
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
RUTG
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MINN
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS59.1%
52.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS70.3%
70.6%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.4%
2.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = RUTG, ORANGE = MINN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE