SAT 15:30 ET|SPARTAN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP10|O/U40.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
20
6-2
67
5
85
84%
76
68
27.0
—
-13.5
HOME
29
2-5
76
30
83
15%
61
100
13.5
—
+13.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2020CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALNU20—MSU29
CLOSED NU -13.5TOTAL 40.5MSU COVERED · 49 POINTS · OVER
NU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2020 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 13 FIELD n=44
MARKET
TOTAL40.5
SPREADNU -13.5
IMPLIED — NU27.0
IMPLIED — MSU13.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
26FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT0 SLOTSBoth rankings put this game in the same place on the week's board.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2020 · FULL SEASON
NURECORD MATCHES
6-2ACTUALvs5.8-2.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.9
NORTHWESTERN won 6 of 8 against a scoring profile describing 5.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MSURECORD MATCHES
2-5ACTUALvs1.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-17.1
MICHIGAN STATE won 2 of 7 against a scoring profile describing 1.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNORTHWESTERNMICHIGAN STATE2020 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
RB0%John Moten IVRB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
WR/TE0%Trent GoensTE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL0%Jared ThomasOL · SHARE NOT MEASURED
DL0%Joe GazianoDL · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
DB0%Trae WilliamsDB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
RBCameron Porter · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
WR/TEHunter Welcing · SIGNEE ★3Marshall Lang · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLPeter Skoronski · SIGNEE ★4Josh Priebe · SIGNEE ★3Terah Edwards · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DLJordan Butler · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
DBGarnett Hollis Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Gunner Maldonado · SIGNEE ★3Jaheem Joseph · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NORTHWESTERN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB———427CARRIED FROM 2019 · NOTHING GRADED YET
RB———958CARRIED FROM 2019 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE————25CARRIED FROM 2019 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL————18CARRIED FROM 2019 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL————14CARRIED FROM 2019 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB————15CARRIED FROM 2019 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB————19CARRIED FROM 2019 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE67th67
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%41
RECRUITING CLASS#47 · 1/20 BC65
CLASS RANK TREND+11 · 3 CYCLES72
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX33%51
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MSUMEL TUCKERFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7878
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9393
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NUPAT FITZGERALD5TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1919
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9393
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNU OFFENSEMSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNORTHWESTERN OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE NU QUARTERBACKSn=758% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNORTHWESTERN OFFENSEFRONT-7MICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE NU OFFENSIVE LINEn=18RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNORTHWESTERN OFFENSEFRONT-7MICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE NU RUNNING BACKSn=85% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.55——11%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENORTHWESTERN OFFENSESECONDARYMICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE NU PASS CATCHERSn=25RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOMRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−11
+37
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS65.4%
52.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS64.0%
58.5%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
1.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NU, ORANGE = MSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2020, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE