SAT 15:30 ET|HUSKIE STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP28|O/U41.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
6
9-4
38
18
89
80%
29
25
21.5
-125
-1.5
HOME
3
3-9
9
3
26
53%
9
13
20.0
+105
+1.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALSDSU6—NIU3
CLOSED SDSU -1.5TOTAL 41.5SDSU COVERED · 9 POINTS · UNDER
SDSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
NIU
SDSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
NIU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 5 FIELD n=51
MARKET
TOTAL41.5
SPREADSDSU -1.5
IMPLIED — SDSU21.5
IMPLIED — NIU20.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
23FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT0 SLOTSBoth rankings put this game in the same place on the week's board.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
SDSURECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs10.0-2.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.1
SAN DIEGO STATE won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NIURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.6-8.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.3
NORTHERN ILLINOIS won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSAN DIEGO STATENORTHERN ILLINOIS2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Danny O'NeilPORTAL · WISCONSIN · 88% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJavance Tupou'ata-JohnsonPORTAL · NORTH DAKOTA · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB99%Marquez CooperRB · 89% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam DavisRB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE88%Jude WolfeTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLouis Brown IVPORTAL · BAYLOR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael HarrisonTE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL67%Nate WilliamsOL · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrayden BryantOL · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler McMahanOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL38%Tupu AlualuDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarlem LouisEDGE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarrion DaltonPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB32%Kyle MorettiLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCody MoonLB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDominic OliverPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB18%JD Coffey IIIS · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWilliam Nimmo Jr.S · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJayden Denegal · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGANJP Mialovski · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBChristian Washington · PORTAL ★3 · COASTAL CAROLINAByron Cardwell Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIAJordin Thomas · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEJackson Ford · PORTAL ★3 · TULSASeth Adams · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANAMarcus Mozer · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
OLCam May · PORTAL ★3 · HOWARDJett Thomas · SIGNEE ★3Ashdon Wnetrzak · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLKainoa Davis · PORTAL ★3 · CHARLOTTEBrian Townsend Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Sidney Dupuy · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBEtene Pritchard · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBHunter Haines · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON STATEBraylon Cardwell · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SAN DIEGO STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
52.974 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
10.13 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
72.498 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB292919042 OF 4 GRADED
RB6161686254 OF 5 GRADED
WR/TE444440132415 OF 24 GRADED
OL343430521510 OF 15 GRADED
DL464641551714 OF 17 GRADED
LB59596077139 OF 13 GRADED
DB636358741913 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE38th38
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%20
RECRUITING CLASS#78 · 0/18 BC42
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 19 IN / 25 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NIUTHOMAS HAMMOCK7TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
77
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5959
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SDSUSEAN LEWIS2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
88
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5353
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSDSU OFFENSENIU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSAN DIEGO STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE SDSU QUARTERBACKSn=4100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS39% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSAN DIEGO STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE SDSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1548% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU FRONT-7n=35 · 2 ROOMS18% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSAN DIEGO STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE SDSU RUNNING BACKSn=538% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 35 PLAYERS18% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552174%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESAN DIEGO STATE OFFENSESECONDARYNORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE SDSU PASS CATCHERSn=2487% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM56% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SDSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NIU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−32
+2
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
SDSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NIU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SDSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NIU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS68.7%
72.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS45.3%
49.6%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.4%
2.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SDSU, ORANGE = NIU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE