SAT 16:00 ET|FALCON STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP13|O/U52.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
44
9-4
13
47
47
46%
78
27
22.8
+225
+7.0
HOME
35
4-8
0
76
0
63%
66
36
29.8
-278
-7.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALHAW44—AF35
CLOSED AF -7.0TOTAL 52.5HAW COVERED · 79 POINTS · OVER
HAW
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
AF
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 5 FIELD n=51
MARKET
TOTAL52.5
SPREADAF -7.0
IMPLIED — HAW22.8
IMPLIED — AF29.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
68FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT27 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 27 positions on a 51-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
HAWRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.0
HAWAI'I won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
AFRECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.9-6.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.5
AIR FORCE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERHAWAI'IAIR FORCE2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB86%Brayden SchagerQB · 85% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL64%Elijah RobinsonDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDion WashingtonPORTAL · BOISE STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaniel WilliamsDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE55%Jonah PanokeWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlex PerryPORTAL · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSpencer CurtisWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB45%Logan TaylorLB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNalu EmersonLB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNoah KemaLB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL44%Ka'ena DecambraPORTAL · ARIZONA · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSergio MuasauOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLuke Felix-FualaloOL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB36%Tylan HinesPORTAL · TARLETON STATE · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB33%Cam StoneDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb BrownPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMeki PeiDB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBDermaricus Davis · PORTAL ★3 · UCLAJarret Nielsen · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLKa'eo Akana · PORTAL ★3 · UTAHLuther McCoy · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTADe'Jon Benton · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICO2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEJackson Harris · PORTAL ★3 · STANFORDJoey Farthing · PORTAL ★3 · YOUNGSTOWN STATEBrandon White · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKY3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBAisiah Paogofie · SIGNEE ★3Zaden Mariteragi · SIGNEE ★3Kingston Costales · SIGNEEREFILLED
OLKawika Hallums · SIGNEE ★3Jordan Kernaghan · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DBZion Allen · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERN UTAHSemaj James · PORTAL ★3 · TROYTim Malo · PORTAL ★3 · BROWN1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · HAWAI'I
CARRIED COMPOSITE
53.879 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
53.978 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
53.776 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4141497943 OF 4 GRADED
RB49492810064 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE252554662216 OF 22 GRADED
OL454537961711 OF 17 GRADED
DL595945482020 OF 20 GRADED
LB46464485138 OF 13 GRADED
DB454538822118 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE13th13
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%15
RECRUITING CLASS#124 · 0/11 BC8
CLASS RANK TREND-7 · 3 CYCLES36
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 13 IN / 25 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
AFTROY CALHOUN10TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
00
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9292
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
HAWTIMMY CHANG4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9999
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4545
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESHAW OFFENSEAF OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBHAWAI'I OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEAIR FORCE DEFENSE HAW QUARTERBACKSn=421% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AF DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 58 PLAYERS46% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLHAWAI'I OFFENSEFRONT-7AIR FORCE DEFENSE HAW OFFENSIVE LINEn=174% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AF FRONT-7n=39 · 2 ROOMS10% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBHAWAI'I OFFENSEFRONT-7AIR FORCE DEFENSE HAW RUNNING BACKSn=60% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AF FRONT-72 ROOMS · 39 PLAYERS11% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552798%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEHAWAI'I OFFENSESECONDARYAIR FORCE DEFENSE HAW PASS CATCHERSn=2234% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AF SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM75% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
HAW
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AF
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−38
−41
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
HAW
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AF
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
HAW
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AF
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS44.4%
84.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS74.1%
40.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.2%
0.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = HAW, ORANGE = AF) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE