SAT 19:00 ET|M. M. ROBERTS STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP20|O/U55.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
JXSTCUSAJACKSONVILLE STATE 25
9-5
20
19
10
84%
72
5
25.5
+160
+4.5
HOME
42
7-6
40
27
17
52%
64
13
30.0
-192
-4.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALJXST25—USM42
CLOSED USM -4.5TOTAL 55.5USM COVERED · 67 POINTS · OVER
JXST
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
USM
JXST
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
USM
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 5 FIELD n=51
MARKET
TOTAL55.5
SPREADUSM -4.5
IMPLIED — JXST25.5
IMPLIED — USM30.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
57FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT5 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 5 positions on a 51-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
JXSTRECORD MATCHES
8-5ACTUALvs7.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+2.8
JACKSONVILLE STATE won 8 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
USMRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.6-5.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+2.4
SOUTHERN MISS won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERJACKSONVILLE STATESOUTHERN MISS2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Tyler HuffQB · 93% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLogan SmothersQB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB90%Antonio CarterS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZechariah PoyserPORTAL · MIAMI · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFred PerryPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB89%Tre StewartRB · 75% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnwar LewisRB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB88%Laletia HaleLB · 37% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONReginald HughesPORTAL · COLORADO · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJibreel Al-AminPORTAL · MARSHALL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL82%Will O'SteenPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam JonesOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONClay WebbOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE71%Sean BrownTE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob BarrickPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam VaughnPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL56%J-Rock SwainEDGE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKy'won McCrayPORTAL · NEW MEXICO · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRicky SamuelDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBGavin Wimsatt · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYJack Moran · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBTrevor Woods · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOTre'Quon Fegans · PORTAL ★3 · UCFJacarvis Alexandre · PORTAL ★3 · FERRIS STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBCam Cook · PORTAL ★3 · TCULucas Farrington · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBMac Sanders · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLJeremiah Orr · PORTAL ★3 · HAMPTONLance Johnson · SIGNEE ★3Oliver Maldonado · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TECaleb Coombs · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA ATLANTICGabe Glover · SIGNEE ★3DJ Vinson · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DLKhurtiss Perry · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA TECHChristopher Johnson · SIGNEE ★3McCade Wright · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · JACKSONVILLE STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
23.615 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
24.516 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
23.115 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB656527063 OF 6 GRADED
RB535377876 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE474711532819 OF 28 GRADED
OL383841361812 OF 18 GRADED
DL484858751612 OF 16 GRADED
LB404047471211 OF 12 GRADED
DB555535132720 OF 27 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE20th20
BLUE-CHIP RATIO12%57
RECRUITING CLASS#110 · 0/23 BC18
CLASS RANK TREND+53 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 22 IN / 27 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
USMCHARLES HUFFFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3232
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1515
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
JXSTCHARLES KELLYFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
33
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5858
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESJXST OFFENSEUSM OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBJACKSONVILLE STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSESOUTHERN MISS DEFENSE JXST QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USM DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS83% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLJACKSONVILLE STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTHERN MISS DEFENSE JXST OFFENSIVE LINEn=1864% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USM FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS63% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBJACKSONVILLE STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTHERN MISS DEFENSE JXST RUNNING BACKSn=792% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USM FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS61% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554827%9%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEJACKSONVILLE STATE OFFENSESECONDARYSOUTHERN MISS DEFENSE JXST PASS CATCHERSn=2847% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USM SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM99% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
JXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USM
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−14
+8
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
JXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USM
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
JXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USM
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS71.7%
55.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS54.4%
61.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.1%
1.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = JXST, ORANGE = USM) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE