SAT 19:30 ET|BEAVER STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/U52.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
30
13-2
97
90
94
19%
29
86
24.0
+160
+4.5
HOME
24
7-6
93
78
79
56%
6
74
28.5
-190
-4.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALORE30—PSU24
CLOSED PSU -4.5TOTAL 52.5ORE COVERED · 54 POINTS · OVER
ORE
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
PSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 5 FIELD n=51
MARKET
TOTAL52.5
SPREADPSU -4.5
IMPLIED — ORE24.0
IMPLIED — PSU28.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
40FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT15 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 15 positions on a 51-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
ORERECORD MATCHES
11-1ACTUALvs10.8-1.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+23.3
OREGON won 11 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
PSURECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs8.6-3.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME+10.3
PENN STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROREGONPENN STATE2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB98%Dillon GabrielDRAFTED · 98% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB95%Kobe SavageDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTysheem JohnsonDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJabbar MuhammadDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL82%Derrick HarmonDRAFTED · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamaree CaldwellDRAFTED · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan BurchDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL70%Ajani CorneliusDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh Conerly Jr.DRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNishad StrotherOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE61%Terrance FergusonDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTez JohnsonDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTraeshon HoldenWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB55%Jordan JamesDRAFTED · 55% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB27%Jeffrey BassaDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJestin JacobsLB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele · SIGNEE ★4Akili Smith Jr. · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DBDillon Thieneman · PORTAL ★4 · PURDUENa'eem Offord · SIGNEE ★5Trey McNutt · SIGNEE ★52 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DLBear Alexander · PORTAL ★4 · USCTobi Haastrup · SIGNEE ★4Matthew Johnson · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLEmmanuel Pregnon · PORTAL ★4 · USCIsaiah World · PORTAL ★4 · NEVADADouglas Utu · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
WR/TEMalik Benson · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDA STATEJamari Johnson · PORTAL ★4 · LOUISVILLEDakorien Moore · SIGNEE ★52 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBMakhi Hughes · PORTAL ★4 · TULANEDierre Hill Jr. · SIGNEE ★4Jordon Davison · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
LBGavin Nix · SIGNEE ★4Nasir Wyatt · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OREGON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
33.529 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
40.749 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
28.821 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7575969474 OF 7 GRADED
RB7272695587 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE787892542112 OF 21 GRADED
OL767692432017 OF 20 GRADED
DL585894751210 OF 12 GRADED
LB545471951412 OF 14 GRADED
DB707091302117 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE97th97
BLUE-CHIP RATIO61%93
RECRUITING CLASS#5 · 18/21 BC97
CLASS RANK TREND+4 · 3 CYCLES58
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+6 · 11 IN / 14 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
PSUJAMES FRANKLIN10TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5555
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7777
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
OREDAN LANNING4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7979
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8989
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESORE OFFENSEPSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOREGON OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEPENN STATE DEFENSE ORE QUARTERBACKSn=76% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS31% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOREGON OFFENSEFRONT-7PENN STATE DEFENSE ORE OFFENSIVE LINEn=2057% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PSU FRONT-7n=36 · 2 ROOMS43% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOREGON OFFENSEFRONT-7PENN STATE DEFENSE ORE RUNNING BACKSn=845% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 36 PLAYERS44% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556868%56%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456341%45%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOREGON OFFENSESECONDARYPENN STATE DEFENSE ORE PASS CATCHERSn=2146% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PSU SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM21% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ORE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−1
+3
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ORE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ORE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS61.7%
62.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS62.5%
59.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE3.2%
1.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ORE, ORANGE = PSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE