SAT 19:00 ET|JORDAN-HARE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP9|O/U67.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
20
10-2
81
95
77
83%
95
64
32.3
—
+3.0
HOME
31
6-6
91
69
91
61%
65
94
35.3
—
-3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2021CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALMISS20—AUB31
CLOSED AUB -3.0TOTAL 67.5AUB COVERED · 51 POINTS · UNDER
MISS
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
AUB
MISS
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
AUB
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2021 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 9 FIELD n=53
MARKET
TOTAL67.5
SPREADAUB -3.0
IMPLIED — MISS32.3
IMPLIED — AUB35.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
52FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT23 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 23 positions on a 53-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2021 · FULL SEASON
MISSRECORD OVERSTATES
10-2ACTUALvs8.4-3.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+10.9
OLE MISS won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
AUBRECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs8.0-4.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.4
AUBURN won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROLE MISSAUBURN2021 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
RB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
WR/TE0%Elijah MooreDRAFTED · SHARE NOT MEASURED
OL0%Royce NewmanDRAFTED · SHARE NOT MEASURED
DL0%Ryder AndersonPORTAL · INDIANA · SHARE NOT MEASURED
LB0%Jacquez JonesPORTAL · KENTUCKY · SHARE NOT MEASURED
DB0%Jay StanleyPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
RBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
WR/TEJahcour Pearson · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN KENTUCKYBralon Brown · SIGNEE ★4Hudson Wolfe · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
OLJayden Williams · SIGNEE ★3Cedrick Nicely · SIGNEE ★3Erick Cade · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DLTywone Malone Jr. · SIGNEE ★4Demarcus Smith · SIGNEE ★3JJ Hawkins · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBChance Campbell · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLANDINTACT
DBTysheem Johnson · SIGNEE ★4Dink Jackson · SIGNEE ★4Markevious Brown · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OLE MISS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB———1006CARRIED FROM 2020 · NOTHING GRADED YET
RB———10011CARRIED FROM 2020 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE————28CARRIED FROM 2020 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL————19CARRIED FROM 2020 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL————18CARRIED FROM 2020 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB————16CARRIED FROM 2020 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB————26CARRIED FROM 2020 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE81st81
BLUE-CHIP RATIO20%74
RECRUITING CLASS#18 · 8/25 BC87
CLASS RANK TREND+4 · 3 CYCLES58
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX26%35
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
AUBBRYAN HARSINFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
55
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1212
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MISSLANE KIFFIN2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4848
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8585
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMISS OFFENSEAUB OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOLE MISS OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEAUBURN DEFENSE MISS QUARTERBACKSn=60% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AUB DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 46 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOLE MISS OFFENSEFRONT-7AUBURN DEFENSE MISS OFFENSIVE LINEn=19RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AUB FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOLE MISS OFFENSEFRONT-7AUBURN DEFENSE MISS RUNNING BACKSn=110% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AUB FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.55——54%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOLE MISS OFFENSESECONDARYAUBURN DEFENSE MISS PASS CATCHERSn=28RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AUB SECONDARYn=14 · 1 ROOMRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MISS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AUB
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−8
+12
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MISS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AUB
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS60.0%
54.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS55.6%
68.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.8%
1.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MISS, ORANGE = AUB) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2021, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE