SAT 12:00 ET|MICHIGAN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP12|O/U42.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
10
4-8
80
29
81
40%
1
100
12.5
+550
+17.5
HOME
24
9-4
93
81
69
40%
22
72
30.0
-800
-17.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALWIS10—MICH24
CLOSED MICH -17.5TOTAL 42.5WIS COVERED · 34 POINTS · UNDER
WIS
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
MICH
WIS
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MICH
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 6 FIELD n=50
MARKET
TOTAL42.5
SPREADMICH -17.5
IMPLIED — WIS12.5
IMPLIED — MICH30.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
36FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT2 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 2 positions on a 50-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
WISRECORD OVERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs2.7-9.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-8.8
WISCONSIN won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MICHRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs8.6-3.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.9
MICHIGAN won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWISCONSINMICHIGAN2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Braedyn LockePORTAL · ARIZONA · 80% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler Van DykeQB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB67%Tawee WalkerPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 53% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChez MellusiRB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL56%Curt NealPORTAL · ILLINOIS · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah HillsDL · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB53%Jake ChaneyLB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaheim ThomasLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLeon Lowery Jr.PORTAL · ILLINOIS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE52%Riley NowakowskiPORTAL · INDIANA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONC.J. WilliamsPORTAL · STANFORD · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWill PaulingPORTAL · NOTRE DAME · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL38%Joe HuberOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJack NelsonDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB32%Hunter WohlerDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONXavier LucasPORTAL · MIAMI · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBCarter Smith · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DLTyreese Fearbry · PORTAL ★4 · KENTUCKYJay'viar Suggs · PORTAL ★4 · LSUMicheal Garner · PORTAL ★3 · GRAMBLING7 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBMason Posa · SIGNEE ★4Cooper Catalano · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEEugene Hilton Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Nizyi Davis · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLHardy Watts · SIGNEE ★4Logan Powell · SIGNEE ★4Michael Roeske · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJahmare Washington · SIGNEE ★3Remington Moss · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WISCONSIN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
50.066 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
51.771 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
48.964 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB373772054 OF 5 GRADED
RB60607010075 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE666670582214 OF 22 GRADED
OL535380742110 OF 21 GRADED
DL73737755139 OF 13 GRADED
LB767676512215 OF 22 GRADED
DB484865451813 OF 18 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE80th80
BLUE-CHIP RATIO29%79
RECRUITING CLASS#27 · 7/22 BC80
CLASS RANK TREND+31 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 18 IN / 33 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MICHSHERRONE MOORE2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1515
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1010
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WISLUKE FICKELL3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5252
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2525
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWIS OFFENSEMICH OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWISCONSIN OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMICHIGAN DEFENSE WIS QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MICH DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS35% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWISCONSIN OFFENSEFRONT-7MICHIGAN DEFENSE WIS OFFENSIVE LINEn=2126% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MICH FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS21% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWISCONSIN OFFENSEFRONT-7MICHIGAN DEFENSE WIS RUNNING BACKSn=70% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MICH FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS21% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555476%55%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456683%55%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWISCONSIN OFFENSESECONDARYMICHIGAN DEFENSE WIS PASS CATCHERSn=2242% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MICH SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM47% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WIS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MICH
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+42
+12
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WIS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MICH
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WIS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MICH
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS61.1%
64.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS50.9%
57.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.2%
0.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WIS, ORANGE = MICH) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE