SAT 15:30 ET|JORDAN-HARE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP9|O/U57.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
24
12-1
100
98
92
19%
88
—
38.8
—
-20.5
HOME
22
6-6
91
69
91
61%
65
—
18.3
—
+20.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2021CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALALA24—AUB22
CLOSED ALA -20.5TOTAL 57.0AUB COVERED · 46 POINTS · UNDER
ALA
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
AUB
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2021 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 13 FIELD n=65
MARKET
TOTAL57.0
SPREADALA -20.5
IMPLIED — ALA38.8
IMPLIED — AUB18.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
50FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT6 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 6 positions on a 65-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2021 · FULL SEASON
ALARECORD MATCHES
12-1ACTUALvs11.1-1.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+22.3
ALABAMA won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 11.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
AUBRECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs8.0-4.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.4
AUBURN won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERALABAMAAUBURN2021 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Mac JonesDRAFTED · SHARE NOT MEASURED
RB0%Najee HarrisDRAFTED · SHARE NOT MEASURED
WR/TE0%Miller ForristallTE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%Landon DickersonDRAFTED · SHARE NOT MEASURED
DL0%Christian BarmoreDRAFTED · SHARE NOT MEASURED
LB0%Ale KahoPORTAL · UCLA · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB0%Ronald WilliamsPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJalen Milroe · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
RBCamar Wheaton · SIGNEE ★5INTACT
WR/TEJa'Corey Brooks · SIGNEE ★5Agiye Hall · SIGNEE ★4JoJo Earle · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
OLJC Latham · SIGNEE ★5Tommy Brockermeyer · SIGNEE ★5TJ Ferguson · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
DLDallas Turner · SIGNEE ★5Damon Payne · SIGNEE ★5Keanu Koht · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
LBHenry To'o To'o · PORTAL ★4 · TENNESSEEDeontae Lawson · SIGNEE ★4Kendrick Blackshire · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
DBKool-Aid McKinstry · SIGNEE ★5Terrion Arnold · SIGNEE ★4Kaine Williams · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ALABAMA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB———55CARRIED FROM 2020 · NOTHING GRADED YET
RB———396CARRIED FROM 2020 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE————27CARRIED FROM 2020 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL————18CARRIED FROM 2020 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL————14CARRIED FROM 2020 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB————21CARRIED FROM 2020 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB————22CARRIED FROM 2020 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE100th100
BLUE-CHIP RATIO84%100
RECRUITING CLASS#1 · 24/26 BC100
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX35%73
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
AUBBRYAN HARSINFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
55
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1212
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ALANICK SABAN6TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5959
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESALA OFFENSEAUB OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBALABAMA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEAUBURN DEFENSE ALA QUARTERBACKSn=595% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AUB DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 46 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLALABAMA OFFENSEFRONT-7AUBURN DEFENSE ALA OFFENSIVE LINEn=18RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AUB FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBALABAMA OFFENSEFRONT-7AUBURN DEFENSE ALA RUNNING BACKSn=661% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AUB FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.55——54%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEALABAMA OFFENSESECONDARYAUBURN DEFENSE ALA PASS CATCHERSn=27RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AUB SECONDARYn=14 · 1 ROOMRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ALA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AUB
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+2
+12
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ALA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AUB
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS54.9%
54.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS76.0%
68.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.6%
1.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ALA, ORANGE = AUB) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2021, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE